Bracketology 101: Back to the Basics

Last year’s tournament was one of the weirdest I’ve ever witnessed. Everything that was supposed to happen happened. There were only five upsets in the round of 64, and I’m not sure that three of those qualify. A nine seed knocking off an eight isn’t exactly shocking. Outside of VCU knocking off Duke, we were bereft of the dramatic twists and turns that keep us glued to the TV for over the three weeks of tournament play.

After watching George Mason’s spirited run in 2005, it was a major let down that no one emerged to fill the role of David. I highly doubt that anyone in this field, or any other one, will ever have the ability to make such a run, but then again who had the Patriots on their radar? Due to this, for the first time, the office polls favored those that knew absolutely nothing about the teams on the court. Those that picked based off of seeds cleaned up and won the bragging rights for the year.

I spent countless hours watching meaningless games between teams in the Mountain West Conference prior to the tournament just so that I had every edge possible when it came time to ink my picks in.  After all that hard work I felt great, I knew things that no one else knew, and then Betty at the information desk takes all four number one seeds to the Final Four, and wins.  My pride took a serious hit.

I’m not going to lie; it still stings a little. I didn’t care that she won, those things happen all the time. People with no knowledge make picks based off of colors or mascots and walk away with the cash. Last year wasn’t a fans year, it favored the secretaries, your girlfriend, the casual fan that watches a couple games a year. I’ve spent my entire life preparing to fill out the perfect bracket.  I haven’t quite gotten there yet, but I’ve had some success in my quest. I know, it’s pathetic, I place way too much stock in this, but it’s the one time during the year that I can cash in on all the hours I spent watching college hoops. It can’t all be for nothing.

We took a hit, but it’s won’t happen again, it’s time to tighten up and get back to the basics. Which is exactly what I intend to do over the next 90 hours. I’m going to go over everything you need to know to fill out a successful bracket. Today we start with the frivolities, the bracketology. You have to know the past to predict the future.

Go with what you know, not what you think: I was real high on Clemenson after they started out 11-1, and I still was even after they picked up their second loss 90-88 in a heart breaking game against UNC. Then it all fell apart. They got embarrassed by Charlotte in their next one, and never really got it back together until the ACC tournament. It’d be real easy to forget that rough patch during the middle of the season, especially after watching them beat Duke and play Carolina fairly well on Sunday. When you’ve see a team at their peak, as well as their most vulnerable moment, it’s easy to forget who they really are. A lot of people are going to be huge on Clemson after watching their spirited play this weekend, and many will probably underestimate Memphis after seeing them struggle against UAB and lose to Tennessee. Both would be a huge mistake. Just go with what you know.  Don’t over think these things, if your unsure go with your gut, it’s usually the best reference. Just because you saw Winthrop whoop on Miami, it doesn’t mean that’s who they really are. Don’t forget that they lost decisively to both West Virginia and Mount Saint Mary’s.

Don’t go low: The big dogs are the big dogs for a reason. You’d be immortalized forever if you successfully located all the sleeper teams correctly, but it’s not going to happen. 21 of the 29 Champions in the modern era have been seeded as a 1 or 2. It’s fine to take your sleepers on a run, but you have to know when it’s time to call it quits. Taking 4 of the top 8 teams into the Final Four isn’t going to make you look like a genius when you get it right, but it will get you paid. It doesn’t matter how you win if you win.

The Big Dogs Dance, but 1 will fall: Only two times in the modern era (when seeding began in 1979) have all four number ones failed to make the Final Four: in 1980 with Syracuse, Kentucky, DePaul and LSU, and again in 2006 with Duke, Connecticut, Memphis and Villanova. I shouldn’t have to tell you this, because there’s no way that you’d clip all the big dogs, but just in case, here it goes: don’t be an idiot. In fact, three years in a row all four number ones have reached the Sweet 16. Will it be four? It’s never happened before, but I like this field’s chances. North Carolina might get tested against Indiana, and Memphis will have their hands full with Oregon, but I wouldn’t pick against either one.

Ride the Horses: When I was doing some research for this article I came across something that shocked me on ESPN.com. In fact I thought for sure they got something wrong so I went back and checked it out before passing it on. That’s right, I care about you guys and gals. Anyways, last year was only the fourth time that a team seeded sixth or lower didn’t make the Elite Eight since 1979.  Who could follow this trend? There’s a couple teams that have a legit chance, but don’t go penciling them all in. In the East I’d go with Butler. In the Midwest I’d say either Kansas State or Davidson, and maybe Miami in the South.

The Time is now: This is becoming even more apparent with the draft’s age minimum, but it is an interesting trend and bears mentioning. Team experience doesn’t matter. As far as getting in, it counts, this decade teams in the field have averaged 3.5 straight appearances, which is up 2.8 from the previous 14 years, but this is irrelevant. Who cares about getting in? It’s about winning, and experience doesn’t matter here. From 1992 to 1998 the champions had an average of 9.6 straight appearances, since then the number has been 3.7. Syracuse is the perfect example of this. They went from not even being invited in 2002, to winning it all in 2003 with a little help from Fab Frosh Carmelo Anthony. Then Connecticut followed up the following year with just three straight trips, and in 2004 North Carolina did it on two. A more recent example would be last year’s Ohio State team. They didn’t win it all, but freshmen Greg Oden and Mike Conley were able to carry them to the final after missing the field in 2005.
Who fits the bill? Memphis missed in 2005, making this their third straight appearance.

By the Numbers: Everyone knows that the 5 vs 12 game is where you butter your bread. Last year was only the third time in the modern era that a 12 seed didn’t win a game. The popular picks here will be Eastern Kentucky or George Mason over Notre Dame and Drake, which probably won’t hurt much if they get it wrong. A lot of people are going to take Michigan State over Temple and Clemson over Villanova, then all the way into the Sweet Sixteen, so this could be a huge bracket buster. Don’t take the five’s too far though, a team seeded fifth has never won the title.

A few more frivolities:

1. A seven seed has never made the championship game.
2. Over the last 10 years a ten seed has made the Sweet 16 eleven times.
3. 7’s,8’s and 9’s have only made it 14 times combined over the same span.
4. A 15 seed hasn’t won a game in six years, matching the longest drought ever (1985-1990).