Why The Met’s Won’t Win the East

Redeem team? Forget about USA Basketball, the real team in need of reconciliation is the New York Mets. At least the basketball team still medaled four years ago. The Mets were coming off the worst collapse in baseball history, and continued to play so poorly through the first three months of the season that their manager, Willie Randolph, was handed his pink slip in controversial fashion.

Fair or not, Randolph been painted as the villain in this whole scenario, and the recent results make it hard to argue otherwise. Before he was dismissed on June 18 there was a black swill that had encapsulated the entire club. They were 35-36, 5.5 games out of first, and the future looked bleak. There were reports that the clubhouse had become divided into sects, for and against Randolph, and the players had all but quit on him. If that wasn’t bad enough, their savior, Johan Santana, the latest addition to their $138 million payroll, who was supposed to come in and immediately turn the fortunes of this club around, had a 7-5 record and was still finding his footing in New York. It was progress, but patience isn’t exactly a common characteristic in New York.

Since then, things have turned around. They have gone 37-23 since hiring Jerry Manuel, and have moved into first place after winning 10 of their last 12. Writers are going out of their way to describe the positive vibe in the clubhouse these days, and Santana is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA since the change in regime. But the change in fortunes can largely be accredited to the starters who, as a whole, have been a whole lot better. They put up a 4.40 ERA during the first half, but over the last two months they’ve lowered that total all the way down to 3.20. Before losing on Saturday, the Mets starters were 9-0 over their last 12 games with a 1.72 ERA.

On the surface all signs point to the Mets making a Phillies like run into the playoffs, but before you go and start penciling them in, you may want to slow down and take a look under the hood: this club could be headed for disaster.

Here are a few reasons why:

Exhibit A.) Carlos Delgado

Delgado was one of the main culprits rumored to be pushing Randolph out of town. He had split the clubhouse and began undermining many of his decisions, so it should be no surprise that through this time of turmoil his play suffered. This was a team of underachieving individuals, and no one personified that mentality more so than Delgado. It got so bad that many had begun prophesying his impending demise. On June 18 he was hitting .237 and, save for his 10 homeruns, his presence in this lineup was detrimental to the teams overall success, let alone his clubhouse presence. But, as soon as Randolph left town, Delgado found his stick, as he hit .316/.399/.658 with 14 homers in the 41 games between June 18 and August 3. This would be great news if Delgado hadn’t fallen back into the abyss. He is now hitting .267 for the month of August. The Mets are going to need him to continue to produce as he was if they want to continue to fend off the Phillies in the standings. If a ring isn’t enough, he does have another motivating factor: his $12 million option for next season.

Exhibit B.) Clutch hitting

What is clutch hitting? This is something that will be forever debated between the numbers guru’s and the old-timers, but there is one situation that is undoubtedly clutch: bases loaded situations. Before Deldgado slapped a bases loaded go-ahead double in the eighth inning Tuesday night against the Braves, the Met’s were 3-for-42 with the sacks full. This isn’t the only clutch situation they are struggling in, though. Their inability to produce runs late in games is equally embarrassing. The Mets are hitting .305 with a league best 106 runs in the first inning, so these late inning situations shouldn’t matter much, right? When you’re hitting .242 from the seventh inning on, those early numbers have a way of becoming irrelevant; especially when you have a bullpen that can’t preserve a lead for the life of them, which brings us to the next point.

Exhibit C.) The Bullpen

There’s been much talk about the Mets’ horrible bullpen, and rightfully so. Billy Wagner has been shut down, and right now there’s no clear cut candidate to step up and take over his vacated role. If they don’t find a viable option, there’s no way they can continue to succeed like this. In a game earlier this month they used five pitchers to get the final six outs against the Padres, the owners of a league worst .246 batting average.

The whole bullpen has been horrible, though, it’s not just limited to the closer role. Here are the earned run averages of the Mets relief corps since the break:

Pedro Feliciano-6.17
Aaron Heilman- 7.85
Joe Smith- 8.18
Scott Schoenewies- 4.09
Duaner Sanchez- 6.10

Typically teams with a shaky bullpen don’t go waltzing into the playoffs. Losing Wagner isn’t the issue, the whole unit has been awful all year long. They’ve already blown more than 20 saves, 14 of which have led to losses. Say what you want about closers being overrated, but they’ve given up 20 wins through their bullpen. When the team you are competing against has a more potent offense, a better bullpen situation, and a closer, in Brad Lidge, that hasn’t blown a save all year it becomes a huge issue. With their struggles late in games, they need someone that can preserve those early leads. It’s essential to their success.

You just don’t overcome something like that. You just don’t.