Since when did we start considering mediocre pitchers for the Cy Young award? I always thought that it was meant to identify the best pitcher in both leagues regardless of who you are and what market you play in. If this is true, then why are people mentioning Josh Beckett’s name in these conversations?
Don’t get me wrong, the guy is a good player, but I just can’t shake the feeling that the voters are going to drop the ball on this thing. It isn’t Beckett’s fault that he plays on the media’s favorite team, the Boston Red Sox (are we now required to call them America’s team? Has there been a ruling on this?), . I’m not going to lie; I’m disgusted by the proverbial fellatio that this team has been receiving in the press lately. I used to have a soft spot for the Red Sox, and when they beat the Cardinals in the 2004 World Series I was able to find solace in the fact that they broke the curse. Through all the grieving I was glad that it came at the hands of the Sox, we all felt that way, but enough is enough. They had their day, but even considering Beckett for this award is a diservice to everyone who has ever won it.
Wake up people, Josh Beckett is not Cy Young material! Ok, he has 16 wins, but so does Tim Wakefield, if that doesn’t convince you that that number is completely meaningless than I don’t know what will. The Boston offense averaging 6.12 runs when Beckett is on the mound has more to do with his record than his talent. Put him on the Devil Rays with their low scoring offense and below average bullpen and he essentially would be getting the same consideration for the award as Scott Kazmir- none.
His 3.29 ERA is good but not great. It ranks eighth in the American league right behind Brian Bannister. Sitting atop that list are these names: Dan Haren, Johan Santana, Kelvim Escobar and Erik Bedard. The only ones that should be uttered from any mouth when talking about the best pitchers in the American League.
Haren could be considered the front runner depending on what you value in a pitcher. Unfortunately his strikeout total isn’t quite as awe-inspiring as his 2.72 ERA, so if your looking for a flamethrower move on down the line. He has managed to tally 157 K’s, which puts him one behind America’s pitcher, but with a more petite ERA. Those two numbers alone should automatically disqualify Beckett from any further consideration, and Haren has 14 wins on a far less talented team. Throw his 1.11 WHIP in the mix and that’s the icing on the cake. Now that we have systematically eliminated Beckett from the conversation, it’s time to get acquainted with the other candidates.
Kelvim Escobar’s numbers are almost identical to Haren’s, but his 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts come up just short. If those numbers don’t impress you, this might, he’s been taken yard by only 8 of the 697 batters he’s faced this year. He has also pitched three complete games, the highest total among the listed Cy Young contenders, with one resulting in a shutout.
Johan Santana’s 2007 campaign is as good as anybodies and should enough to get him his third piece of hardware in four years, but his past dominance disqualify him in some people’s eyes. His 3.06 ERA ranks third overall, but if the voters decide to compare him against his past he might be in trouble, even though it’s good enough for third overall. In fact, it’s the highest such total he has posted since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, and the same applies for his league leading 1.05 WHIP. A few things he has going for him that they can’t deny is his 200 strikeouts in 188 innings and 9.57 K/9 ratio. The voters also love to have that moment they can hang their hat on, and his 17 strikeout gem fits the profile.
Which brings us to this year’s breakout player, Erik Bedard, possibly the most dominate pitcher in the American League. Look at his line: 13-5, 3.16 ERA, 182 IP, 221 SO, 57 BB, 1.088 WHIP. Those numbers tell you everything you need to know, this kid is a stud. Need more? His 10.93 K/9 is the best in the business as well as his total strikeouts, and he had a 12 game undefeated streak. Oh yeah, and he did all this while playing in Baltimore, where he is now the single season strikeout leader. Playing there also means he gets very little run support, they’ve scored a mere 603 runs this year, the third worst total in the league. That has to count for something.
It’s hard to separate these guys. Wins and losses shouldn’t ever be used to judge a pitcher. Theoretically a guy could post a 1.00 ERA and lose all his games. Does that make him less talented than the guy who posted a 4.00 ERA and won 20 games? Not by any stretch of the imagination, but the Baseball Writers Association of America has had a history of looking at wins first. This is a practice that needs to be abandoned immediately, and it’s the reason that voters, such as Joe Morgan, have become the de facto leaders of the Beckett campaign. At best, he’s the fifth or sixth best pitcher in the league. All we can do now is sit back and hope that they get it right.
So, who is my pick? Based on performance, the only thing that should matter, I would be forced to go with Dan Haren. No, Erik Bedard. You can’t ever count out Santana either. But, Escobar has only given up eight home runs and his numbers are so tiny.
If someone put a gun to my head I would probably end up getting shot, but let’s try to eliminate someone. I have to say that Santana is out because this is his “worst” season as a full-time starter and he has already lost 10 games. To me losses mean more than wins, depending on how they lose, of course, but that’s another article. So that leaves Bedard as our flame-thrower. So between the two crafty guys I would have to go with Haren. His over-all numbers are slightly better, but that could change by the end of the season. So that leaves us with Haren vs. Bedard. I think Bedard might win, but if I had a vote I would cast it for Haren.
Let me know who you’d cast a vote for and we’ll determine the IWS AL Pitcher of the year. Cast your votes via e-mail or on the site.
RSS Updates
Email Updates
{ 2 trackbacks }
{ 12 comments… read them below or add one }
Haren
Danny Haren
Haren, get outta here, he might have more strikeouts but no one, and I mean no one, can hit Escobar
F the BS, Santana is the man. 2004, 200schmore, it shouldn’t maek a difference. the award is yearly, not carrely. that isn’t a word, but you know what i mean, seriously which one of those guys is better than johan… the answer is none. They should just the keep the award in a box in his garage and send it out to someone else once every ten years and hang it on johans wall the other nine.
I agree with the discounting the wins thing, because, apparently, they’re becoming harder to come by. It’s getting harder to win 20 games, and that shouldn’t be counted against a player. Last year, where the ML high was 19 (the NL high was 16 (!!)), was the first year since ‘95 where there wasn’t a 20-game winner. (And I’m willing to give ‘95 a pass, as the rest of the stat line (and the fact he only started 28 games) for Maddux’s 19-win campaign that year makes his wins irrelevant.) And no one’s going to win 20 games this year. So, we have to move on to the other stats. And I think you could make a pretty good case for Bedard based on those.
Whether you like it or not Josh Beckett is the leading candidate to win the AL Cy Young award. If you don’t value wins much, then look at these: Josh is in the top ten in ERA, SO, WHIP, BAA, fewest walks, fewest homeruns. He just outpitched Roy Halladay recently and beat the TBJ with such a very good hitting lineup.Forget Johan Santana he leads AL with 30 home runs given up and has eleven losses; Erik Bedard won’t pitch again this season with oblique strain; Dan Haren has so so record pitching in a pitcher’s park; John Lackey lasted 4 innings only against Boston; CC Sabathia has more hits than innings pitched. Overall Josh Beckett has the better overall record in AL. His closest opponent whould be Wang of NY Yankees but he suffered an injury lately against Seattle in his last start and may miss one or two starts.
Josh Beckett will win the Cy Young award this year not only because of his wins but more so of his overall pitching record.
Peds: Beckett is 5th in HR behind Kelvim Escobar (8), Wang (8), Brian Bannister (9), Jake Westbrook (10). And your boy Wang has given up a hit for every inning, minus 1.
Roy Halladay has a 3.94 ERA and 126 SO, he should outpitch him, if he didn’t that would be pretty embarassing. I mean considering your calling him a Cy Young Contender. But about the wins, Tim Wakefield has a 4.16 ERA with 16 Wins, Wang has a 3.68 ERA, you don’t think this has anything to do with the 747 runs that Boston has scored (third in the league)or the 824 the Yanks have scored (tops in the league)? Come on man think about what your saying, Santana has lost 11 games, 8 of which were by 2 or less runs, but the Twins are a sub .500 and they have scored 627 runs, second worst in the AL. Give Santana those 120 runs that seperate those two teams and he’s likely to win all 8 of those games making him 22-3.
Now to Dan Haren, I’ll just show you their lines and you decide.
HAREN
W L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP
14 6 191.3 170 74 61 20 47 161 2.87 1.134
Beckett
17 6 174.7 165 67 64 12 36 165 3.30 1.151
Wang… Just for fun
17 6 173.7 172 72 71 8 48 87 3.68 1.267
HAREN Beckett
ERA 1 9
Wins 9 1
WHIP 3 6
Hits/9 8.00 4 8.40 5
BB/9 1.82 1.85
BA .232 .244
OBP .278 (4) .285
2B 34 42
BAbip .268 .307 Batting Average Ball in Play
Innings 6 18
Strikeouts 161 9 7
Adjusted ERA 152 1 138 (6)
Haren owns him. Beckett has pitched less innings, so this kind of works both ways, he might have more K’s, but Haren has him in pretty much everything else, especially ERA and he has pitched more innings. Also, Haren has two less wins on a crappy team that has scored 632 runs, third worst in the AL. Every pitcher on this list owns Josh. And your boy Wang suffers from the same thing your bashing CC for, too many hits. The voters emphasis wins far too much, I hope this sheds some light on the situation.
AND ONE LAST QUESTION?
How is Haren “so-so” in a pitchers park? He’s 8-2 at home….
You have to ask yourself, is it harder to win 14 games on a team that is one of the lowest in runs, or for the team that is third and has scored about 120-130 more? Which win is more valuable? We don’t even want to get into fielding percentages either, that would widen this gap even further. Historically, the voters have made lazy decisions when voting. I’m assuming they don’t dig as deep as I have to answer this question, and sadly I have just cracked the surface. It’s the same reason Wang finished second in voting last year. He is a good pitcher, as is Beckett, but neither is nearly as good as the guys on the list. Bedard, Haren, and Santana would have 20 wins already if they had the run support that Beckett does.
CY Young winner must come from a winning team, i.e. playoff and world series contender. Bedard, Haren and Santana are from losing teams. Are you voting for them? Losers that cannot play in post season?
The true measure of Beckett’s great performance this season is his road games. Do you know his record? He is simply 10-2 with sub 2.00 ERA the best in AL.
Every one knows that Fenway is a hitter’s park, thus, Beckett’s ERA is 3.30 right now. Haren? Yes he is pitching in a pitcher friendly park. If Haren is pitching in Fenway his ERA might be in the range of 3.5o to 4.00.
Forget Santana this season, pitch him in Fenway his home runs might be more that 30 and his ERA will surely be above 3.00. He cannot even beat Cleveland this year. His record is 0-5 and has yet to defeat CC Sabathia this season. No offense to JS he is a great pitcher but 2007 is not his year.
Kevin Escobar will not be even seoiusly considered as Cy Young worhty. His lasted just 2.2. innings in his last start and today he lasted 5.2 innings only. These performances will not help him in the ballot.
That leaves Josh Beckett and Wang as the favorites for Cy Young award this season. Hopefully Beckett will win it because he deserves it more. From 36 home runs last season down to 12; 74 walks last year to 34. ERA of 5.01 to 3.30. What more do you want? He might even win the comeback player this year because of the way he rebounded this season and his record speaks for itself.
You are so enamored by Dan Haren’s ERA. His ERA is deceiving. Take a look at his unearned runs (13). For me a run, be it earned or unearned is still a run. He gave up a hit so the run scored but was not charged to him because of error from his teammates.
Yes because of his teammates that is why his ERA is sub 3.00.
If Beckett and Haren are teammates in Boston and both are pitching in Fenway Park this season, it is still Beckett who will perform better. The pressure in pitching in Boston is far different in Oakland. But Beckett has handled it very well which resulted to his great 2007 season.
More information for Mr. Underhill.
Your man Dan Haren is fast fading. Sorry he has an average second half season. His ERA in July was 4.01 followed by 4.15 in August and lost his last start by giving up 11 hits and five runs to Detroit Tigers.
Compare those numbers to Josh Beckett’s. Mr. Beckett has a record of 3-1, ERA of 2.86 in August and if his first start in September against Toronto BJ (a win at Fenway) is any indication he will have a strong September finish.
If you still insist on Haren, Bedard or Johan Santana, then wake up from your dream and be realistic.
Don’t forget that Josh started the season at 9-0, the best in the majors. Though he missed two games and with only three weeks left in the regular season, he is still the leader in wins and has a great overall pitching record.
Had he not missed two starts, his record might be 19-6. Two of those losses are 2-1 against Toronto BJ and 1-0 vs. Cleveland Indians pitching eight strong innings in both losses. With a little luck on his side, he might have been 21-4 by now.
Don’t you like that record? Come on vote for Josh. He deserves the CY Young award more than anybody else in AL.
Hey Nick what is happening to your man, Dan Haren. In two starts this September his record is: 8.44 ERA 10.2 IP 23 Hits. He followed up his poor outing in September 1 against Detroit Tigers with a poorer performance vs. Texas Rangers yesterday 5 ER 12 Hits and he lasted only 4.2 innings. Two consecutive sub par performances.
Nick let us have some fun. If Cy Young award is a horse race, the race announcer would call it like this:
They’re off and running Beckett sprinted out of the gate and in front of the pack. Into the backstretch it is Beckett in the lead (9-0). As they near the far turn it is still Beckett leading the pack (12-2 at All Star break). As they enter the homestretch, it is still Beckett in front, Wang is closing in and making a bid on the outside are Lackey, Escobar, Wakefield, Verlander, Sabathia and Carmona.
Down the stretch they come Beckett in front (17-6) while Haren is fading badly in the middle of the pack (8.44 ERA in 2 September starts) with Santana struggling behind him (30 homeruns, eleven losses) and Bedard stopped running (won’t pitch again this season due to oblique muscle strain).
As they near the finish line, it is still Beckett and they won’t catch him and finally Beckett won a very close race.
Beckett is the man Nick not your three picks (Haren, Bedard and Santana). Beckett is showing the baseball world what kind of thoroughbred he is made of. He was bred for power, speed, stamina and mental toughness. These are the qualities that will win races (that will win him the 2007 Cy Young award).
At 27 years old he is entering his prime and no one will stop him.
Leave a Comment