What’s the Better Fit?

While everyone was watching the Ravens and Patriots battle it out, baseball’s executives descended upon Nashville to get the winter meetings under way.  This is the time of year when all the wheeling and dealing happens, a couple minor deals involving Elijah Dukes and Carlos Quentin kicked things off, but one name still looms over everything else:  Johan Santana.

Everyone involved in this situation is bluffing right now besides Theo Epstien.  Why?  He’s the only one that doesn’t have anything to lose.  It’s highly unlikely, but we aren’t even sure if Minnesota is going to trade Santana.  All signs say they will, but there is a remote possibility that they will decide to pack it in and walk from the table.  At least until the July 31^st trade deadline. 

The Yankees midnight deadline came and went, and like everyone else, we were hoping to wake up to reports of a blockbuster deal.  So has New York dropped out of the sweepstakes?    Hank Steinbrenner simply can not justify pulling out of these talks without a fight.  Everyone knows what Santana represents for both sides.  For New York it means being able to compete for the divisional title.  For Boston it means being a dynasty.  By dropping out of the talks, the Yankees would be ceding control of the East for the next five years.  For them, this deal is more about keeping Santana out of Boston than putting him in pinstripes.  A rotation headlined by Chein Ming-Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina and Andy Petite is good enough to compete, but it pales in comparison to the likes of Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz/Lester and Schilling.  Would the Yankees fans be willing to play for the Wild Card every year?

The team that Boston has is going to be a problem for the next five or six years, the Angels are stockpiling talent, and with the ultra-competitive AL Central, the wild-card is no longer a foregone conclusion for the runner up in the East.  There’s no way that Hank and Co. are willing to let the Yankees play out their final days in The House That Ruth Built without a fight.  They’ve done a great job recovering from the financial mess the organization created at the beginning of the decade.  There was a time when George Steinbrenner never met a prospect he wouldn’t trade for veteran talent.  It too a while, but they finally have some homegrown talent worth keeping around, which is why they tried to force Bill Smith and the Twins into a soft deal.  They don’t want to offer their top three prospects, but that’s the only way they are going to get Santana. 

It’s pretty clear that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have a bright future ahead of them, so it’s possible that this might end up going down as one of those all-time blunders if somehow the Twins manage to get the pair for their Ace.  Sort of like the A.J. Pierzynski for Francisco Liriano deal.  The only difference is no one knew what they had with Liriano until he was thrown in the fire.  For years Hughes was considered untouchable, but now that Joba Chamberlain has emerged as a bonafide ace he has become more expendable in their eyes. 

What they are failing to realize is that they made their late season push with Hughes on the shelf and Chamberlain pitching every other night an inning at a time.  Things could be a lot different with them in the rotation on a daily basis.  Then when Kennedy emerges it’s only going to get better.  They would have to go through the ups and downs of having a young staff at first, but in six years it’s going to look a lot better than having $50+ million wrapped up on a 39-year-old Alex Rodriguez and a 36-year-old Santana.  The Yankees seem to have a never ending supply of money but at some point it has to run out. 

Boston is just a better fit.  They have the expendable pieces and the right amount of finical flexibility to make it work.  Buccholz and Lester also appear to be destined for great things, but Boston can afford to spend a couple pieces without compromising anything, unlike the Yankees.  Without the pair they would still boast a rotation that encompasses Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Schilling.  On the other-hand, if the Yankees lost their pair they would be left with Chamberlain, Wang, Petite, and little else.  Clearly having Santana would ease the blow tremendously, but the Yankees young trio has the talent to become the second coming of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.

This is just the latest chapter in the age old rivalry.  The last time the Red Sox lost out on the winters biggest prize it worked out pretty well for them.  The Yankee’s got A-Rod and Boston ended their World Series drought.  On the other hand, this has shades of Tony Armas Jr. and Carl Pavano for Pedro all over it.  In case you forgot, ten years ago Pavano was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.  As it turns out the most productive thing he ever did was bring Pedro to Boston, the year after he won a Cy Young.  Pavano ended up eating salary while Martinez went on to win a few more Cy Young’s in Boston.  Ironically, Pedro ended up back with the guy that traded him away, Omar Minaya, but as a Met.  Pavano is still eating salary, now with the Yankees, and Armas is throwing gopher balls to batters in Pittsburgh.

It’s a unique situation for everyone involved.  Boston is in a better situation to get him, but doesn’t need him.  New York needs him, but doesn’t have enough expendable parts.  Chances are he will end up in New York.  Hank will get desperate and offer up everything short of Chamberlain because he can’t stand to sit out an October or two while his team matures.  If Hughes and Chamberlain are what we think they are, why force a deal?  We all know the age old adage, but good things come to those who wait.  Practice some patience.  Putting Santana in pinstripes doesn’t equate to certain success, it just levels the playing field with Boston.