The Year of the Rookie

This was supposed to be the year of the rookie, and it some ways it was, but the names that were highlighted with features in the season previews aren’t the ones lighting up marquees now.  Sporting News thought so much of Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence that they decided to leave their names out of the 2007 Baseball Register which boasts the tag line, “Your complete guide to Major League players and prospects.  Every Player.  Every stat.” 

Coming into the season there were six or seven guys that were targeted as possible contenders for the Rookie of the Year awards.  The favorites in the American League, Alex Gordon, the reigning Minor League Player of the year, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the mythical pitcher from Japan, have faded from the race.  Kevin Kouzmanoff was named the front runner in the National League by Major League players in a poll conducted by Sports Illustrated in the preseason.  He’s played well enough, hitting .275/.330/.462, and has been an integral part in San Diego’s offense-less playoff push, but he’s faded from the race.

The build-up sounding some these names coming into the season were so large that the odds of them living up to the expectations placed upon their green shoulders became insurmountable.  Gordon came into the league dubbed the next George Brett and the savior of the Royals franchise.  Manager Buddy Bell thought so much of him that he initially pushed Mark Teahen into the outfield from his perch at third base to make room for his prized prospect’s arrival.  Then the season started and a trip back to the minors looked eminent coming into June when his average sat well below the Mendoza line.  You could say Bell had the foresight to let him hack it out, but in reality he didn’t have a better option and was being pressured by the front office to let him play.  Either way Gordon turned it around in June hitting .327, raising his first half average to .232, which was still well below expectations.  His second half average of .273 shows hope for the future, but his abysmal defense (1 4 errors) has earned him some playing time at first base, something that definitely wasn’t in the cards.

Daisuke Matsuzaka became larger than life before he ever crossed the pond after the Red Sox paid $51.1 million just to negotiate with him, dwarfing the $13.1 million Seattle paid for the rights to sign Ichiro Suzuki.  Due to this the expectations among Boston fans grew so large that even Bob Gibson couldn’t have satisfied them, Gyro Ball or not.  His play during the second half hasn’t done much to quell the emanating whispers that have him labeled as a bust.  This is ironic because the legend of Daisuke Matsuzaka consisted of two things, the gyro pitch and his super-human endurace, neither of which exist.  The reason I say this is because he’s faded quickly as the season has progressed.  His ERA of 4.45 in August wasn’t horrible, but the 9.74 he recorded for September looks like something you’d find on the Richter scale.

At least Boston can take solace in the fact that the Yankees Phil Hughes didn’t perform as well as he should have, although it was in large part due to circumstances beyond his control.  He was one of the most coveted prospects in baseball and the deal breaker in a number of trades over the last two years.  In his second start he pitched 6 perfect innings and it became lucid why he was thought so high of.  Unfortunately he pulled a hamstring in the seventh and never got to finish his date with destiny.  The Club has been very careful with him since he returned from his month long stint on the disabled list following this injury.  They haven’t quite put him on the ‘Joba rules’, but he’s only been allowed to pitch into the seventh inning once.  Even with these extra precautions he hasn’t been enjoyed much success.  He’s currently 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA. 

Then of course there has to be a few teams that rush their young kids and kill their confidence in the process.  Brandon Wood garnered a lot of attention after hitting 43 home runs with the Angels’ class A affiliate in 2005 and is considered by many to be a top five prospect.  The 22-year-old infielder failed to make the team out of spring training and has hit .160 in a pair of brief call-ups.  It’s obvious that he needs more time in the minors and they are hoping he will be ready for next season.   The Diamondbacks on the other hand just aren’t willing to let Justin Upton get the swings he needs in Triple-A and would rather let him struggle in the show.  The 19-year-old outfielder, who was the top pick in the draft just a year ago, was called up from Double A Mobile on August 2 and has hit .227/.288/.383 since.  The Reds thought they had this year’s Justin Verlander in Homer Bailey, but after posting a 6.09 ERA through 34 innings they realized that he needed some more seasoning and sent him back down to the farm.  

One of the harder players to gauge is Josh Fields.  He was called up to fill in a void created by an injury to Joe Crede and instantly displayed big league power, bashing 22 homers in his first 94 games.  The problem is a fourth of his hits have been homers and he’s struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances.  It doesn’t matter if you’re putting the ball in the seats when your OBP is on life support.

So who actually did perform well?  A lot of guys did, but three shone above the rest in each league, here are the top rookie of the year candidates in each league.

American League

Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The future is bright for this young man, or at least that’s what we have been told for the past two years.  In his first season up the number one pick in the 2003 draft has been impressive at times, but mostly he has displayed the impatience and immaturity that most 21-year-olds possess.  Once he learns to be more selective it should all come together for him.  His .294 batting average is big league ready, but his 26 walks make him a charter member in the Jeff Francoeur Hack n’ Wack All-Stars.

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles
Wasn’t this supposed to be Daniel Cabrera’s staff by now?  Gutrhie certainly wasn’t supposed to be their top prospect.  Coming into Spring Training his career Minor League ERA was 4.40 and he was only added to the Orioles rotation because they have any other options.  During the first half of the season he proved that he was more than worthy of a spot at the end of the rotation by putting up a 2.74 ERA with 72 strike outs.  Too bad for him the season didn’t end in July because we would be engraving his name into a plaque right now.  After the break he hit the dreaded rookie wall, closing out the season with a 5.00 ERA and only 48 strike outs. 

And The Winner Is…

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
It’s amazing that the Boston brain trust stuck with this kid after March when his average sat at .182.  His .308 OBP suggested that he was better than that, but most clubs wouldn’t have given him the chance to turn it around, especially one Boston’s finances.  He certainly rewarded them for their patience in May when he hit .415/.472/.600.  Since turning it around the 23 year-old second baseman has been a catalyst on both sides of the ball, turning 72 double plays and hitting .315/.380/.432 on the season.

National League

Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Everyone wanted to write Pence off as a career minor leaguer before he ever got a fair look.  If it wasn’t his swing that reportedly would never ‘work at upper levels’, it was his recurring leg problems.  Then after putting up solid numbers in the minors it was decided that his competition wasn’t steep enough.  As Baseball Prospectus put it last year, “his gaudy numbers have come in the Sally League against your Aunt Ethel.”  Once the Astro’s put those scouting sheets behind them and finally gave him a shot he produced, awkward swing and all.  He’s now leading all rookies with a .322 average, and his 15 homers and 63 RBI aren’t too bad either.  He may not take home the hardware, but the Astro’s have a perennial All-Star candidate in the outfield. 

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Tulo is the dark horse in this race and he could possibly pull off the upset.  The big problem that I’m having is over looking his splits, it’s the same reason Matt Holiday isn’t the MVP in my eyes.  I know the Rocky Mountain theories are tired, but up in the thin air he hit .330/.398/.564 with 14 homers and 55 RBI and everywhere else his line dropped too .256/.329/.382 with eight homers and 36 RBI.  That’s a huge difference, and therefore inexcusable.  He does have a huge edge on Braun defensively, where he recorded a .986 FP with 110 double plays and only 11 errors, but it’s just not enough to make a difference. 

And The Winner Is… 

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
I spent several hours thumbing through various publications by all the experts and I couldn’t find a word printed about Ryan Braun.   He was ranked the 15^th best prospect in the minor leagues by MiLB.com, so why wasn’t else anyone looking for him this year?  I figured that he would at least be on BP’s radar but they didn’t even have a scouting report on him.  Then he got called up on May 25 and forced everyone to pay attention.  Forty games into his first Major League campaign he was hitting .350/.391/.663 with 11 homers and 32 RBI, and with the help of Prince Fielder they pushed the Brewers into playoff contention.  Outside of the batter’s box no one is going to confuse him with Scott Rolen at the hot corner.  The 22 errors he’s committed and his .904 fielding percentage suggest that his future may be in the outfield or at first base.  His .321/.367/.627 average with 32 homers and 88 RBI makes this pill a little bit easier to swallow.  If he would have been given 162-games to produce we might have been talking about MVP instead of just Rookie of the Year.