Last year it was understandable, it made sense, I even commended them for having the patience and dedication to stick to the plan. Far too often we see promising careers go down the tubes due to overeager franchises that want to rush young pitchers along before they are ready. But, when is a pitcher ready? Is it possible to allow them to start games without over using him? Apparently not. At least the Yankees don’t think so. I happen to disagree.
According to the Post, the Yankees are looking to keep Joba Chamberlain under 140 innings next season, and they believe that starting the season out with him in the bullpen will keep his count in check. They also feel that this will give them adequate time to find a successor for the set-up rule. So far, the short list includes Alan Horne, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Russ Ohlendorf. The plan is to have this all taken care of by June, when Chamberlain will then be sent back down to the minors to get his arm stretched so he can join the rotation sometime after the break.
I’m not with this plan at all. I always thought that spring training was a time used to evaluate talent and find out what rules are best suited for a particular player. Why can’t they find an adequate successor during this period? It sounds like a weak excuse to me.
But that isn’t really what I have problem with. It’s the whole 140 innings thing. That number just seems ridiculously low. Stop coddling this guy and just let him loose. There are plenty of ways to keep his arm fresh and protect him from overuse without strapping him into a baby seat. This whole trip to the minors could be circumvented if they put him in a long relief rule, then the trip to the minors could also be circumvented.
That’s if you’re absolutely against letting him start games. I always thought that teams used pitch counts on young guys to protect them, it seems to work for just about every team that doesn’t employ Dusty Baker. This whole scenario is just weird to me. What’s wrong with Chamberlain, the Yankees have done everything short of hiring the Secret Service to protect this guy.
Why are there differing philosophies for their young pitchers? Phil Hughes is the same age as Joba, yet they had no problem throwing him to wolves last season, and they will do again this year. Sure, there were pitch counts and such in place and the same will likely go for Ian Kennedy, who will turn 23 next season.
It makes me wonder if there is something that we are unaware of, I know the guy was a late bloomer, but he has the talent to throw the hell out of the ball, so why not let him do so? They could even go with some variation of a six man rotation, to maximize the most out of Chamberlain’s skills and give him some extra rest until he is ready to pitch every fifth day. I worry that he will never be ready to go for 200 plus innings in season. How is he supposed to build the endurance and arm strength needed if he can’t throw more than 12 pitches on any given night?
This guy is a major league pitcher, it’s not like he’s never thrown five innings in one game throughout his career. I know they want to keep him fresh for the pennant race, but there may not be one without Chamberlain. Their rotation is looking very weak and inexperienced. Andy Pettitte is way behind in preparation due to his off field issues, Chein Ming Wang can hardly be considered an ace, Ian Kennedy has no experience, as well as Phil Huges, and Mike Mussina, is, well, he’s just about done.
I say let the boy loose, I can’t imagine that Chamberlain is too happy with this, the guy has to be itching to take the ball during the first inning. Why? Because he’s obviously ready, and he definitely has the skills to be successful in such a capacity. He’ll get there; it’s just a question of them letting him do so.
{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
The Prophet 02.12.08 at 10:34 pm
No wonder I’m a fight fan….I agree–let the guy loose. Rules like this are for sissys…
Nick Underhill 02.12.08 at 10:46 pm
lol, I’m with you man. Everyone has been waiting to see what this guy can do for more than an inning at a time, but we’ll have to wait. Now I’m curious if they will let him throw those 12 or pitches on back-to-back nights.
whitacm 02.13.08 at 8:21 am
just wanted to say i like your site man, you’ve got good stuff on here
One More Dying Quail 02.13.08 at 8:22 am
I believe the Yankees are subscribing to the “Rule of 30″, which I first saw described by Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll on the LoHud Yankees Blog. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci was essentially tracking the same thing, but refers to it as Year After Effect, or YAE. Here is his explanation:
“I’ve been tracking the YAE for about a decade now. It’s based on a general rule of thumb among executives and pitching coaches: young pitchers should not have their innings workload increased by more than 25 or 30 innings per year. It’s the same principle as training for a marathon; you get to 26.1 miles incrementally, not by jumping directly from a 10K. The body cannot easily withstand being pushed so far behind its previous capacity for work, at least not without consequences. Typically, those consequences occur the next season, not the year in which the body is pushed.”
The Red Sox did this last year with Clay Buchholz (his innings had jumped from 119 in 2006 to 148 in 2007, which is why they shut him down early and didn’t use him in the playoffs) and the Yankees did it with Chamberlain, limiting him to about 116 innings, including playoffs; a limit of about 140-145 in 2008 is reasonable and could help him avoid injury early while becoming a 200 innings guy within 3-4 years.
I know what you’re thinking: why aren’t they following this with Hughes and Kennedy? Hughes went from 86.2 innings in 2005 to 146 in 2006 and back down to 116 in 2007, Kennedy threw 165.1 in his first full season in 2007. Carroll has written that all three could be candidates for breaking down in 2009 if their major league innings are not watched in 2008, which will probably happen with Kennedy and Chamberlain (the innings limits, not the breakdowns. Well, maybe not the breakdowns). He seems to think that they’ll bite the bullet with Hughes, use him as much as they can (within reason) and hope for the best.
Last thing: Carroll suggested a pattern of use similar to the one suggested by the Post - starting the season in the rotation for the first half and moving to the bullpen later in the year - as a way of limiting his innings.
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/01/21/pinch-hitting-will-carroll-of-bp/
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/11/28/pitchers/index.html
One More Dying Quail 02.13.08 at 8:25 am
Oh, something I neglected to mention: I included minor league innings in the numbers above. Will doesn’t, for reasons discussed in that LoHud link.
Nick Underhill 02.13.08 at 8:57 am
Quail,
I agree a huge jump would be out of the question, which is why I suggested they should use him in long relief, or allow him to skip starts. It just seems that they are being overy cautious. It’s possible to use him in long relief, or sparring as a starter, the rule of 30 is common knowledge, and has been around forever. I don’t think it applies 100% to Joba though, he only pitched 100 innings last season due to the way that he was handled. There’s no reason that this guy can’t pitch 170 innings a start. Which means that they would have to pull the plug after 5/6 innings. If the guy can’t handle that every fifth day, that’s pretty bad. Then, they could keep him fresh for the playoffs by cycling him out every now and then with an alternate sixth starter. Get creative, but don’t shut this guy down.
@whitacm- Thanks for the compliment, I appreciate it.
One More Dying Quail 02.13.08 at 9:19 am
Chamberlain has had some injury issues in the past, which I’m sure is why the Yankees took so much caution with him last season and why they are going to bump him no more than 30 innings in 2008. If they add 70 innings to his workload in one season, the threat of serious injury becomes huge, and they’re obviously not willing to risk ruining his career just to get a few more appearances this season.
The only thing I don’t understand is why they would start him in the bullpen, then switch to starting. I would think that if he began the season in the rotation, they could put some sort of cap on those innings (say, 90 - fifteen starts, six innings per start) and have much more control over his usage for the rest of the season. I could be wrong, but bullpen innings seem easier to control than innings as a starter.
Nick Underhill 02.13.08 at 1:14 pm
The only reason that he only had 100 innings last season is because the way they coddled him. It wasn’t neccessary to go to such extremes, he pitched more than 100 innings in college.
The reason that they are going bullpen, then to starter, is because what everyone already knows: He’ll be more effective as a starter. In terms of order, that makes perfect sense. They want him to have the most impact down the stretch.
I don’t think they should have babied him last season, it set his development back. Based on your rule of 30, going back to his college numbers, he should have been somewhere around 130 innings last season, which would put him at 160/165/170 this year, which would allow him to be a starter this season. Personally, I think pitch counts are better served than inning counts. Some innings you can get out of with 5 or six pitches. Others may take 30. It’s a pretty erronous system, pitch counts are far more accurate.
Nick Underhill 02.13.08 at 1:16 pm
also, he pitched 120 innings his first year in the college rotation, 90 the next. So actually that would be 120, but, you could argue that he should have been able to go 150 last season based on that system, which would put him at 180 this season.
Adam Wainwright went from 75 to 202. I’m fully with taking care of the guy, and doing this slow, don’t misconstrue the message, I just think that they are going way too far.