With Matt Holliday leading the Rockies closer to the playoffs he has established himself as the most valuable player in the National League, and in the process he has become the quintessential example of what this award should represent. He encompasses everything we want in an MVP, which basically constitutes of one criterion: the candidate has to be the center piece of a playoff caliber team. He doesn’t have to be the best player, or a big time slugger, he just has to be the pillar that holds his team up.
I don’t have a problem with this, I put my money on Jimmy Rollins, but who knew that the Rockies would win 11 straight and find themselves right in the thick of things with 2 days left to play? Rollins is just one head on a three headed monster and with the Brewers fading into obscurity Prince Fielder might have fallen out of favor with the voters. Then of course there is also David Wright, but I’m not sure how much momentum he has at this point, and it didn’t help that he cost New York the game Friday night with his shaky fielding decisions. Even if the Rockies don’t get in it shouldn’t matter. Without Holliday this team would have crumbled months ago but this time of year there’s always a huge shadow cast by Coors Field.
I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how Holliday is a product of Coors Field, and to an extent I agree with this, but it’s not germane to the MVP discussion. He’s still a .340 hitter, his average and ability to drive in runs are what makes him valuable. The definition of value is different from talent, and I do question the validity of what his stat sheet represents, but I still feel that he aided his team more than any other player this season. So I’ll have no complaints if he wins the award and neither should anyone else.
Just because he happens to be the most valuable player in the league doesn’t mean that he is the most talented. Over the past two seasons I’ve had the pleasure of watching Holliday play in Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, and Atlanta, and on TV probably 50 other times, but I’ve always felt you had to see a player in person to get a real feel for them. In each of these instances I walked away thinking ‘how does he put up numbers like that?’ His statistics force him into a class that consists of players like Vlad Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez, but he doesn’t belong there. The thing that is holding him back is this line: .374/.434/.726, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 1.160 OPS at home, .301/.374/.485, 11 HR, 55 RBI, .860 OPS on the road. That’s just too large of a free-fall to simply dismiss. It ends up equaling out to a drop of about 19.4% in average, 14% in OBP, 33.2% in slugging, 56% in home runs and 19 % in doubles. I just can’t escape the feeling that this guy is Curtis Granderson outside of Colorado.
It was suggested to me to do a comparison of Holliday’s stats against the other MVP candidates’ in common road parks, but after getting two guys into this I realized my efforts were fruitless. It just revealed what the splits already tell us, that Holliday doesn’t perform well away from home, and his counterparts do so at a relatively normal rate. This isn’t a new trend either, last year he hit .373/.440/.692 while bashing 22 homers at home and those numbers dropped to .280/.333/.485 with 12 homeruns on the road. Either you are forced to accept what has been stated in the splits or you accept the park factors used in the adjustments. The problem is how do you really know which homeruns were legit and which one’s weren’t? If a guy hits 20 homers at Coors that barely clear the wall the adjustment is just going to take the park factor into effect and adjust accordingly, or sometimes they are just neutralized and the park isn’t accounted for at all. In such events it would likely result in a drop of about seven percent in offensive production even though it is obvious that anywhere else those homeruns would result in flyouts. These tools help us achieve better understanding of the game, but there is still a grey area that doesn’t account for visual evidence.
Boston currently has the highest run factor, not because it is the friendliest park, but because they have had one of the highest scoring offenses over the last five years. Supposedly the humidor has played a rule in Coors since 2002, which has led to their park factor dropping to third this season, but it’s clear the problems haven’t been completely solved. Breaking pitches still don’t break as they would in New York, so that alone gives the hitter an advantage. Whether or not this device has made up for the absence of frictional force in the atmosphere is still unclear.
In the end this all moot because Holliday deserves the MVP and all we can really do is speculate until the day (or if the day) comes when he throws on another uniform. In the meantime, just remember there is a difference between being the best and being the most valuable. Holliday is good, not great, but extremely valuable.
So what do you guys think? Is this statistical pattern just a fluke, is Holliday the real deal? Or is he a product of Coors that will be exposed if he ever steps outside of Colorado? Does he deserve the MVP or not?
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Park effects compare runs at home to runs on the road, so quality of offense shouldn’t affect them because a good offense should be good everywhere. Also, it’s more accurate to use multi-year park factors to settle out the variance.
I disagree with your definition of MVP, but it’s a popular one and I’ve decided to expend my effort elsewhere. But…
Even if you don’t discount Holliday’s batting line because of Coors, his value is less because games in Coors involve more runs, making each run less valuable. His runs don’t do as much to create wins.
People do forget Holliday plays a good LF, though. (Although, LF is the scrub position on the field.)
I did use a five year park rating, considering the humidor came in in 2002… I know how Park Factors work, but if you are in a division with a bunch of teams with no offense and great pitching, a la the NL West, then those figures can become skewed, a la Coors Field
Also, I should note, I disagree with the MVP definition, but that’s the definition that is used currently, so I use it. I’m not going to change the way people vote, so I conformed. Hanley Ramirez… I’ll leave it at that.
yesterday he was, today rollins has stolen it
tommy, you’re probably right.. Just a week ago I made a post stating that it was Rollins, then it was Holliday, and now I’m not so sure after watching the Phillies game. Same thing with the ROY, is it Braun or Tulo? The NL is crazy right now.
I agree with most of the things written here, but I think that you also have to take into account that the park factor may be skewed just a bit because of the other parks in the NL West (with the exception of Chase Field) are “pitchers’ parks” and most of the top pitchers in the NL reside in the West (Peavy, Webb, Young, Penny, etc.) Yes, Rollins (and the other candidates) have put up similarly good numbers, but against aggregately weaker competition.
Holliday is an absolute beast though. I’ve watched every single Rockies game for the last two weeks and every time he comes to the plate you just feel like he’s going to get a hit (and most of the time he delivers).
Also, Holliday plays in the NL west, which is arguably the best pitching division in the baseball. The NL team ERA ranks of the 4 other clubs in the division are 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th. Plus Petco and AT&T are some of the more spacious ballparks out there. Sure Coors may give you a slight edge (not as much as people stereotype it to be) in offensive production, but he’s still been doing it against the best pitchers in the league.
The Phillies team success has been carried by Utley, Howard, and Rollins whereas the Rockies have pretty much relied solely on Matt Holliday since day 1 to carry them as far as they’ve come. Sure Rollins may be a deserving candidate, but I personally think it would be a travesty if Holliday didn’t win it. Especially since the best argument against him is “Plays in Coors Field”.
snafu I agree with you. The Coors field debate has no place in the MVP discussion, maybe in HOF discussions but not here. I’m glad we’re in agree on this. I agree that Holliday willed this team beyond the regular season and possibly into the postseason. Who knows with the BWAA though, they’ve screwed things up before. Philadelpia is the feel good story right now, they slayed the giant, so who knows what is going to happen now.
If this was 1998 then maybe a discussion of the effect of Coors field on Holliday’s numbers would be relevant. However, if you’ll take a look at the games the past few years since the introduction of the humidor stored baseballs, there are simply not many 15-10 Home Run derby games.
It was never the altitude alone that was responsible for the inflated numbers at Coors, it was the balls got so dried out that they were harder to grip and weighed less so they were easier to hit.
Brian the Humidor has played an effect, but there were still problems, as far as the ones known to us, about how they weren’t storing balls long enough, and players have reported that balls still do not break as they do in normal parks but it is improving. And like you said, the altitude still exists. this problem will never be solved, and the playing field will never be leveled, but it’s getting closer. It will always be a hitters park, but as you’ve said it’s not quite homer run derby anymore.
but you have to realize, these games are still really high scoring, just because a ball isn’t going over the fence doesn’t mean that it isn’t getting the coors treatment. that’s where the frictional force comes into play, if it isn’t there to slow down the ball, the ball travels further and faster. doesn’t mean it has to go over the fence
oh and the humidor has been there for five years, but for some reason last season it got a lot of attention.
Holliday and Rollins are tight on this one. Citizen’s Park is easier than Coors these days for hitters (ask the Phils who had to endure Holliday’s demolition a few weeks back). But- what Rollins said, what he then did- well- that deserves quite a few MVP votes.
I’ll also add that Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton have had huge, extremely under-rated seasons. Take a look at their VORPs, then tack on 25 runs for Tulo’s fielding and 20 runs for Helton’s. Holliday’s not the only great Rockie.
When you park adjust numbers, you don’t just use a home park factor, you should weight the away parks, too. If Coors was in the East, the away park factor would be like 98 (relatively average parks without Coors included). In the West, it might be more like 95. Dodger Stadium has been playing pretty average lately, though.
Philadelphia has a nice hitters’ park, but it’s no Coors.
Also, for the Phillies, I’d put Rowand as more valuable than Howard. He’s a step behind on offense, but more than a step ahead on defense.
While Coors Field has been tamed to an extent by the humidor and other factors, it is still a hitters park and you can’t argue with the home and away stats for Holliday. I still think he deserves MVP, but I’m biased.
Regardless, if you make the arguement that Coors Field is still that much of a hitter’s park, then how come Francis isn’t included in the Cy Young award conversation? 17 win season with 12 coming at Coors field, if it is a hitter’s ballpark, is pretty damn impressive!
The fact that Holliday’s numbers drop significantly, while J-Roll’s are fairly consistent on the road, the 4-20 season, the defense he provides in a hot position, the fact that he played every game and backed up his talk, all lead me to say that if Jimmy doesn’t win, that is a travesty.
Your homerism is bleeding through in everything you have been writing. Jimmy Rollins had a season that has not been accomplished before offensively,200hits/30 homers /20triples/38 doubles/41 stolen bases as well as playing gold glove defense at shortstop, a much more difficult position than left field. Add to that the joke of Coors Field official scoring when an obvious error on Tulowitzki gets called a hit so Colorado can keep their “record” there is no way that mediocre fielding, led footed Matt Holliday should be MVP.
Jack-
Homerism? I’m from Pennsylvania and two weeks ago I wrote a piece stating the J-Roll should be the MVP. But, Holliday is deserving also, this article discredits his stats but states that he has been instrumental in their playoff push. Jimmy has been incredible, I want him to win the MVP, but if he loses out to Holliday I won’t complain because he has been the driving force of this team. I’m not quite sure how that qualifies for homerism or how it is bleeding through the article, but if there is any type of bias in here towards Holliday I appoligize.
Trying to calculate park effects is a notoriously difficult thing to attempt. There are so many pitfalls. It’s only natural that a team will tailor its lineup to play well at home, because that’s what draws the fans to the park. They want to see the home team win. Few championship teams have records much above .500 on the road.
As the Rockies have developed and held on to better pitching gradually over the years, the acute need for little but home run hitters has lessened, in favor of OBP and doubles hitters, as well as RISP average and the ever important crushing two-out RBI (can you say Brad Hawpe?) and people who can play some good defense.
I don’t think Coors Field was even in the top five for home runs (total, by all teams) this year in spite of the Rockies having five guys in the lineup with decent power every game there. Of course, the NL West doesn’t have the big guns found elsewhere, so this could be a number contaminated by the rest of the division/league… Trying to untangle all this could be virtually impossible in any meaningful manner. Yes, Holliday may be the ideal player for the place (and his defense is pretty good in spite of him breaking the wrong way on the ball hit in the 8th inning last night), but how’s the management supposed to do otherwise and why should he be discounted in the MVP consideration for being well-matched to the place where he plays? (rhetorical questions)
Also, doesn’t the thinner air *help* a fastball pitcher throw, well, faster/easier because of the reduced air resistance?
Anyway, I’m not much impressed by Rollins much-vaunted 20 * 4 stat. 30/30 I get as a simple way of combining some decently good power with some decent speed, but pretty soon it’s gonna be some new 15 * 6 or 10 * 8 stat if things continue in this same ridiculous direction to stretch things to make some player seem extra-special. OBP is the single most important stat for a lead-off hitter, and being able to stretch the occasional single into a double, or a double into a triple don’t counteract all the extra outs a low OBP points to.
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