Can The Cards Maintain?

I spent the whole winter predicting the end of the Saint Louis Cardinals.  I bashed the front office time and again for their complete lack of action, for purging talent and payroll- I predicted that they would finish in last place.  Now here we are approaching the end of the first month, and the Cardinals are perched a half game out of first. 

The view is nice, I’ve enjoyed the month, but I’m still not comfortable.  I just have the feeling that this band of misfits has greatly overachieved.  Going by the numbers, this team has been the best in the major leagues on both sides of the ball.  I have a problem with that. 

Offensively, they sit first in hits, doubles, walks, and OBP, and are currently second in batting average, and sixth in slugging.  If this was 2004, and the heart of the order consisted of Scott Rolen, a healthy Jim Edmons, Albert Pujols, and Larry Walker, I wouldn’t have a problem swallowing this, but the catalyst of this team has been Ryan Ludwick, who’s .860 slugging percentage leads the majors.  This is the same Ryan Ludwick that hit .267/.339/.479 last season in his first full season in the bigs since 2003.  I highly doubt that Ludwick he can continue at this pace. Rick Ankiel has given the club some great offensive production, and even Troy Gluas is driving in runs despite hitting .220/.329/.305.

They’ll never maintain.  Glaus is doing exactly what I expect from him.  He’ll drive in runs when makes contact, but he’ll be a liability otherwise.  Ankiel is brilliant in spurts, but when he falls into a funk he’ll never get out of it.  Adam Kennedy is hitting over .300, and has been solid thus far, but this is a guy that is 33, and is coming off a season in which he hit .219.

The way the pitchers have been piling up numbers, it would seem that even if the sticks go silent they’ll still be sitting pretty.  As a whole, their staff ranks second in ERA, wins, shutouts, and walks, and first in saves.  This is staggering, because with Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement all on the disabled list, everyone expected the rotation to cripple their success.  But thus far, from top to bottom, they have been brilliant.

Todd Wellenmeyer is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 25 innings.  Adam Wainwright has emerged as a bonafide ace, posting a 2.78 ERA and Braden Looper is at 2.70; but the biggest surprise has been Kyle Lohse.  Everyone was sour on this guy all winter, and he sat on the open market well into spring training until the Cardinals scooped him up at a discount price, and thus far, he has been brilliant, posting a 1.48 ERA.

They’ll never maintain this pace.

I apologize to everyone that is drinking the Kool-Aid right now, but I’m more inclined to believe the past than a limited sample size from a team that has excelled while everyone else is still trying to find their footing.  Lohse hasn’t posted an ERA under 4 once in his career.  Am I really to believe that all of a sudden he acquired the stuff to be an ace in this league?  The same applies for Wellenmeyer.  Then you have Braden Looper, who in his first turn as a starter last season posted a 4.94 ERA. 

Basically, on both sides of the ball, the only people you can really trust right now are Pujols and Wainwright.  That’s it.  Everyone thinks that if they can just sustain until the cavalry of injured pitchers return that they could steal the Central. 

That’s not going to happen.  Have we already forgotten that Mark Mulder posted a 7.14 ERA over 93 innings last season, and that he hasn’t been effective since 2005?  What about Matt Clement?  Have we forgotten about him too?  The guy has had two good seasons.  He posted ERAs of 3.60 and 3.68, but otherwise he has above 4 all along.  Oh, and he also hasn’t been effective since 2005.  The only guy you can really hold your breath for is Carpenter, but this is his second major injury in four years.  Now, at 33, it isn’t going to be easy for him to come back.

Could they do it?  Anything is possible, this is the same team that willed their way to a World Series victory two years ago, but at least that team had some proven talent.  They aren’t as bad as everyone expected them to be, but I think instead of looking ahead to a possible Central title, everyone should set their sites on third because that’s all that is attainable.

The Cubs and Brewers are just too good.  They have actual talent.  They aren’t banking on some unknown players to maintain some ridiculous pace for 162 games.  The chances of the Cardinals winning the division are about as likely as Xavier Nady and Nate McClueth remaining the most effective players in the land.  Anything is possible for a month, but keeping it up for a whole year is a different story.  Just ask Chris Shelton.