When I found him, Liriano was a mere footnote on the now infamous A.J. Pierzynski trade.  He had made somewhat of a name for himself at the minor league level, but Baseball America still had him ranked as the third best prospect in the Twins organization behind Matt Garza and Joe Mauer heading into the 2006 season.  Even worse, the Twins were oblivious to how special Liriano really was, as he appeared to be sentenced to a year of bullpen duty until something opened up in the rotation.

On May 19 Liriano finally got his big break in an interleague game against Milwaukee, a week after picking up his first save.  He quickly worked his way through five dominate innings (1 ER, 5 SO), picking up the win in his first start of the season.  After seeing this spectacle first hand, I was rather enthusiastic about the Twins new arm, and proceeded to named him our American League Stud of the Week in my weekly PFS column.  I knew that he had something, but I had no idea what he would go on to do.  Neither did my editor.

After sending in my copy, my editor contacted me and told me enough was enough, they wanted a rewrite.  They felt that I was compromising the integrity of their publication by giving such high acclaim to a ‘nobody’.  Never mind that he posted a 2.63 ERA with 204 strikeouts over 167.2 innings at the minor league level the year before, I was making a mockery of the whole site, this piece would not see the light of day as it was.  My pride and convictions were too strong to allow me to oblige with their request, I felt this kid was worth a waiver pick-up, and the world should know.  Because of this I would eventually be relieved of duties.

As we all now know, the jokes on them.  Before tearing his UCL on August 28, Liriano led the league in ERA (1.96), WHIP (.96),  and K/9 (10.72), making him a front runner for the Cy Young award.  Possibly the most impressive part of it all was that he was out pitching Johan Santana at the height of his dominance.  But due to numerous set-backs, both physical and mental, the wonder kid has struggled to pitch his way back into the Twins rotation.

It isn’t because of his pitching, though.  Liriano got a shot early on in April, but after being rocked to the tune of an 11.32 ERA, he was reassigned to the minors for the foreseeable future.

Due to his weakened elbow, his devastating slider, which was been described by Alex Rodriguez as the most devastating pitch he’s ever faced behind Joel Zumaya’s 100 mph fastball, had been compromised.  His 2006 success didn’t come from his 97 mph fastball, as crazy as that might sound.  No, it was his ability to pair it up with his 91-mph slider, a pitch that literally made hitters buckle at the knees.  It was his bread and butter.  He threw this pitch an average of 30 times a game during the ‘06 season, but in his first start this year he brought it out three times, twice putting it in the dirt.

At the time it seemed that Liriano was doomed to end up like Rick Ankiel.  A brilliant pitcher, who appeared to have briliant career ahead of him, but instead was relegated to one-year wonder status.  But it now appears that his early struggles were a blessing in disguise.  The velocity was there back in April, he hit 93 on the radars a few times, but his mental progress needed to catch up.  With the spotlight off for the first time since injuring his elbow, Liriano headed down the minors to rework his arsenal, but more importantly, to get his mind right.  This is exactly what he needed.

The pressure wasn’t there to perform.  Everyone had already given up on him, so he room to breath.  There were no sports writers dissecting his every motion looking for a flaw.  But, most of all, the pressure to come in and replace the departed Johan Santana was gone.

With the weight of the world off his surgically repaired elbow, it finally all clicked.  Through his first 17 starts at Triple-A Rochester, Liriano has compiled an 8-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, along with 92 SO to go against 28 walks through 105 innings.   More importantly, he’s averaging six innings a start, which shows that his arm is ready to take on a major league work load.

His overall numbers are great, but as of late, it’d be a fair assessment to say he has done nothing but dominate his minor league foes.  Over his last four starts he’s allowed only one run, walked three, and struck out 32 hitters over 28 innings, and over his last ten starts he’s 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA.

So why isn’t he back up?  Liriano and his agent believe that it’s a ploy to avoid arbitration for another year, and as the stats suggest, they might have a case.  They’ve filed a grievance with MLB, but the Twins contest that they just don’t have spot for him right now, which makes it almost impossible for Liriano to win this case.

Their starters have been solid, solid enough to make it impossible to prove that there is some type of fowl play going on here.  They have a collective ERA of 4.11, with Livan Hernandez at the bottom of the pack with a 5.29 ERA.  The other guys have been solid, though, as they all currently have ERA’s that reside below 4.30.  Liriano could probably show-up and immediately become the ace of this staff, so it doesn’t make much sense to keep him down.  At the very least Minnesota could strengthen their relief corps with his presence, and allow him to readjust to the Major League level, but they know that Liriano would likely be unsatisfied being used in that capacity.

It’s unclear if this is what GM Bill Smith is really trying to avoid arbitration for another year, but I highly doubt it.  To qualify for arbitration a player needs three years of service time, Liriano currently has two years and 45 days.  With 64 days left in the season, he’d fall short either way.  His only hope would be to qualify as a ‘Super Two’, where the top 17 percent of players with between two and three years or service qualify for arbitration, and the word is with people in the know that he’d also fall short of qualifying here also.

With the Twins in the hunt for the Central title, where they are currently a half game back, it’s doubtful they’d play these kinds of games.  They may be a small market team, but if Lriaino were to be granted arbitration he’d only see his salary increase by about $1 million.

So, it looks like the only thing the Twins are guilty of in this case is being stupid, not cheap.

Is it fair? Absolutely not, Ramirez is arguably one of the most effective hitters alive today. But, is the diagnosis unwarranted? That’s where things get sticky. Ramirez almost plays into the persona, not by design, but more because he doesn’t care. Maybe we just don’t misunderstand the man, or want to. David Ortiz and various other Red Sox teammates have gone on the record numerous times to voice their admiration for his dedication to his craft.

So what if he goes out and has a little fun now and then, Ramirez’s relaxed nature is the very thing that makes him an effective hitter. We often lambast our hero’s for taking the game too serious and never having fun, yet, when we are presented with a figure that approaches each out with a child’s joy, we criticize him for being too loose. So how do you win?

Maybe Ramirez has gone over the line one too many times, like when he took a swipe at Kevin Youkilis in the dug-out after a bench clearing brawl with the Rays on June 5^th. The attack was certainly unwarranted, although the details are still murky about what instigated the ordeal. Nevertheless, attacking a teammate is never okay. The two have since patched things up, but this is the type of incident that can create division amongst the troops.

Though, that occurrence pales in comparison to his latest infraction which saw him push traveling secretary Jack McCormick to the ground while in Houston for failing to fulfill a request for 16-tickets for the night’s contest.

The team downplayed the incidents, as they typically do with Ramirez, which at times puts their PR people into overdrive to keep any possible flames extinguished, but it’s a small price to pay for his stick. Manny might be a problem at times, but he’s their problem, and boy can he hit.

So, when Ramirez went to the media to spout off about his current contract situation over the break, it wasn’t exactly shocking.

“I want no more [expletive] where they tell you one thing and behind your back they do another thing,” Ramirez vented to the Boston Herald. “I think I’ve earned that respect, for a team to sit down with me and tell me this is what we want, this is what we want to do.”

What was shocking is that Boston fired back, when in the past they’d work quickly to quiet things down before they spiraled out of control. In fact, owner John Henry took exception with Ramirez’s statement and went to the media to send a message to his slugger: we love you, but this will not be tolerated.

“I find remarks that we have been anything other than completely straightforward to be personally offensive,” Henry told the Herald via e-mail. “Manny has been a crucial part of two world championships. I do not believe we would have won either without him. He has never played a more important role than he has thus far this year.”

Ramirez has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in Boston, but he wants to know if the team is at all interested in picking up his $20 million options for 2009 and ’10. If they don’t, he’ll be granted free agency at the end of the season.

In all actuality, at 36, Ramirez would be hard pressed to get $20 million out of any club, but the numbers suggest he might still be worth it, if not, close to it. He’s currently hitting .293/.389/.518, and with 18 homers and 60 RBI, he’s on pace to post his best totals since his monster 2005 season when he blasted 45 homers and drove in 144 runs. But, it should be noted that he’s already collected 82 strikeouts, which puts him on pace for the highest total of his career, so his demise is evident, but hardly forthcoming.

Though, he might have handled the situation poorly, I wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that his feelings towards the front office are unwarranted. Only five short years ago they showed their appreciation for this man by attempting to give him away. Yes, we’re talking about the same 2003 season in which Ramirez hit .325/.427/.587 with 37 homers and 104 RBI, and finished sixth in MVP voting. His reward: being placed on irrevocable waivers, meaning that any team willing to pay his salary could have had him.

I don’t know what’s crazier, that the Red Sox did something so bold, or that no one else tried to claim him. Either way, that’s no way to treat a legend. Not then, and not now. This is a man that has become the face of the franchise, a man that played a large part in turning around a culture that bred failure. Give him his due, he’s earned it. So what if he’s weird, and occasionally problematic. It’s not like the guy is Milton Bradley.

What the casual observers don’t realize is that the game is perfect in all of its imperfections. I’ll admit that I have been one of the biggest proponents for instant replay, and if implemented with delicate hands, it would add to the value of the sport. But with that said, I’ll concede to the fact that my rant on the subject might have been a little premature.

The reason I bring this up is because I had a revelation this morning as I was inundated with various takes describing how flawed baseball is, and how it is in dire need of fixing. The game is flawed, and depending on how you view things, there is a ton of things wrong with it, but what I realized is that nothing needs changed at the fundamental level.

I couldn’t believe how many people suggested that they need to put a time cap on the games. Are you kidding? There doesn’t need to be a clock. Sure, it’s frustrating to invest three hours into a game and be forced to bed before the resolution, but what made last night’s game so great was the extra innings. The plays at the plate, the drama, that all would have been non-existent if JD Drew wouldn’t have bashed a two run homer off Edinson Volquez, and Billy Wagner wouldn’t have choked in the eighth. Without those twists, which led to the extra play, everyone would have probably been writing stories about how stupid the game is instead.

Here’s the thing, if you can’t stay up for the game, TiVo it, go to bed, and watch it tomorrow. If that isn’t an option, well, sorry, but you can’t please everyone. If you don’t have 5 hours to put into a game, walk away, no one is forcing you to watch. Baseball is slow paced and drawn out, by definition. It’s not tied up in a nice neat package like the other sports. If this doesn’t appeal to you, go watch football. No one is forcing you to be here.

One thing is certain, though, some things do need to be changed. We were dangerously close to ending the game in a tie, which is something that can never happen again. That’s how we got stuck in the whole ‘This one counts’ era where the All-Star game determines home-field advantage for the World Series. That definitely needs to be changed, but that’s another debate. As far as the ties go, there’s two ways to avoid that.

The first option would be to expand the rosters to allow more room for additional arms. The process would be easy, just allow fans to vote for three more guys, and then you’re covered for a 20 inning extravaganza. The other option is something that several people have suggested, which would be to exclude pitchers who have thrown within three days of the exhibition. If you ask me this is completely unfeasible. You can’t keep guys out who deserve to be there, and the whole process of exclusion would be impossible to sort out.

The bottom line is that you can’t please everyone. Someone is always going to be unhappy, but people need to realize that baseball is appealing because it’s so humanized. All the flaws make it appealing. It’s never going to be perfect, it’s not football, and it’s not basketball. The game is never going to be the best sport for TV, but the fans, the real ones, they love the imperfections.

I admit that this may not be the best time to present this argument considering that Cain is currently sitting on a 4.06 ERA, but he’s just starting to find his groove. After posting a 2.14 ERA through his first three starts in July, it appears to be getting back into his 2007 form. Yes, the same 2007 season that saw Cain finish with a 7-16 record.

See, run support has a funny way of distorting perception. If you were to ask the esteemed voters of the Baseball Writers Association of America what they thought of Cain’s 2007 season, they’d likely tell you that it was a colossal failure. Pose the same question to a stat head and he’ll tell you that Cain was one of the top ten pitchers in the National League. I happen to agree with the latter.

How can you not? Last season Cain posted a 3.65 ERA over 200 innings. Any perceived failure clearly resides in the hands of those around him. How else can you explain his putrid record?

Run support - or, in this case, the lack thereof. In 17 starts last season, spanning 115 innings, Cain accumulated a 2.50 ERA and 1.052 WHIP, along with 101 strike outs against 39 walks. He didn’t give up more than four runs in any of these contests. Those are Cy Young caliber numbers. Yet, Cain didn’t record a single win for his fine work. Instead he got 10 losses and seven no decisions, but that’s what happens when you only average 3.51 runs of support.

It hasn’t been quite as bad this season, the Giants offense has record an average of 3.71 runs through his first 20 starts, but the bad luck hasn’t exactly vanished. In the eight no decisions that Cain has thrown, he’s posted a line of: 53.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 1.013 WHIP, 55 K and 18 walks. He didn’t give up more than 3 runs in any of these games. Meaning, by any standard, he should have won each contest.

At least Cain isn’t the unluckiest pitcher of all time. That distinction still belongs to Ed Walsh. In case you aren’t up on your baseball history, Walsh went 18-20 for the 1910 White Sox, despite leading the league in ERA (1.47), WHIP (.820), BB/9 (1.49), K/BB (4.23), and ERA+ (189). But, he does have some competition for the honor of unluckiest pitcher of the year.

Jay Bergman of the Washington Nationals seems to have a black cat permanently affixed to the mound when he’s out there. Since his last win on May 15^th, he has given up the following run totals: 0, 0, 4, 5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. Now, it isn’t unusual to lose those 4 and 5 run games, but to lose or get no decisions in the others is pretty awful. But, it’s not surprising considering he has the lowest run support in all of baseball at 1.70 runs per start.

Compare Bergman and Cain’s numbers (1-6 4.02 ERA and 5-7, 4.06 ERA) to Kyle Kendrick, who has the highest run support in the game. His ERA is 4.23, but thanks to getting over 6 runs a game from his offense he has an 8-3 record, so people think he is having a great year, which just isn’t true. Give Cain that type of run support and he would have easily made a run at the Cy Young award last season, instead he’s relegated to being the subject of articles like this.

He’ll get those Cy Young awards, he just has to get out of San Francisco first.

Maybe it was the press conference. The sight of CC Sabathia hamming it up for the camera’s with a 100-mega watt smile. Maybe it was the smug presence, or that little knowing grin that adorned Doug Melvin’s face through the whole affair. He knew it, everyone watching knew it, so you know that John Henry also knew it: It was official, the Brewers just went up on one up on the Cubs, and the rest of the National League Central, if they didn’t act quickly they’d be in serious danger of becoming the nation’s millennial losers. There was only one decision to make: Would they take it lying down, or would they take action?

So they did what they had to do and targeted the best available man for the job:  Rich Harden, quite possibly the most talented pitcher in baseball. Over his last 277.4 innings, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA with 289 K’s against a mere 111 walks.

The problem is, it’s taken him seasons to accumulate those figures.  He’s never thrown more than 190 innings in a season, and, in fact, since being called up six years ago, he’s only appeared in an average of 90.3 innings a season. That’s not exactly good news for a fan base that is still trying to recover from the disappointment, better known as Mark Prior.

They’ve been down this road before, where you just kind of hold your breath and hope for the best. If healthy, Harden gives the Cubs the best one-two punch in possibly all of baseball. Carlos Zambrano and Harden can match up with anyone in a short series, including Sabathia and Ben Sheets of the Brewers. If he’s not healthy, well, the Cubs already know how to deal with that.

Even with the warts, this deal looks great on paper. Since Harden returned from the disabled list on May 11 he’s dominated, as he always does when healthy. Once he finally settled in and got his arm stretched out, he took it into another gear, striking out 43 hitters in 32 1/3 innings, while posting a 1.67 ERA for the month of June.

With Harden there’s always a catch, though.  His last start was troubling, to say the least, as he labored through five innings, walking four batters, and requiring 95 pitches to retire 15 batters. The start before that, scouts reported that his velocity was way down.

But, bottom line, the Cubs got the more talented pitcher here.  They should be able to continue to thwart off the Brewers and Cardinals, if Harden stays healthy. The bad news? Well, there really isn’t any here, at least not in the short term. If Harden falls apart they still have the roster that has them sitting on the league’s best record, and they also have a nice contingency plan since they also acquired Chad Gaudin (5-3, 3.59 ERA, 17 walks, 44 SO) from the A’s.

Losing Matt Murton might hurt in the long run, but the Cubs have to go for it while they can.  So even if Harden’s shoulder lands in the first row, the fans won’t mind, at least the Cubs are being aggresive.  You can’t knock them for that.

]]> http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/will-harden-keep-the-cubs-on-top/feed/ http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/who-will-be-dealt-next/ http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/who-will-be-dealt-next/#comments Tue, 08 Jul 2008 01:54:37 +0000 Nick Underhill http://www.imwritingsports.com/?p=935 The Brewers have plugged their holes for the time being, so now, with the premier hurler off the block, what’s next for the other 29 teams in the league? No one is perfect, and by now everyone has pretty much decided if they are buying, selling, or standing pat. There’s some big names floating around out there in the rumor mill, like always, so what can you expect in the coming weeks?

Both the Phillies and Dodgers were reportedly pushing very hard for the left-hander, so it’s safe to assume that they are in the market for starting pitching. Both clubs reportedly had offers on the table that were very tempting to the Indians, but as we know now, they ultimately came up short. So now they are left to look elsewhere to fill their gaps.

With Philadelphia recently optioning Brett Myers to the minors, their need for another front-line starter to match up with Cole Hamels has never been more apparent. Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and Adam Eaton have all been serviceable, posting ERA’s in the 4.00 range, but at this point they can hardly be depended upon to win a game when it counts.

There have been reports of them having talks with the Mariners for Erik Bedard, but it now appears that they have shifted gears and are heavily pursuing AJ Burnett. In fact, according to Fox Sports, this would be a done deal if it weren’t for Burnett’s opt out clause. If he were to choose to stay with the club, the Phillies want some type of financial assurance that the Blue Jays will pick up part of $24 million tab over the next two years.

The Dodgers were also expected to be in the running for Burnett, or possibly even Bedard. But now with Rafeal Furcal likely out for the remainder of the season after being forced to the operating table with back injuries, they also have a pressing need at shortstop, and rumor has it they are heavily pursuing the Pirates’ Jack Wilson in favor of a hurler. The Pirates have no real desire to deal Wilson, but they are always looking to beef up their depleted minor league system, so they have been receptive to the Dodgers inquiries, but the asking price is expected to be very steep. Though, with Arizona floundering, and giving Los Angeles new life, they have plenty of motivation to get this deal done. Also, with Wilson under contract for next season, with club options for 2009 and ’10, they can justify giving up a top tier prospect for a shot at glory.

Feeling the pressure from the Brewers latest acquisition, there might be a dark horse in all of this: the Chicago Cubs. There have been confirmed reports that the Cubs have been keeping the phone lines occupied in Billy Beane’s office these days in hopes of landing Rich Hardner, and they have also inquired about Burnett.

This puts Beane in a tough spot. Early on he was shopping Harden and Joe Blanton right alongside Nick Swisher and Dan Haren, and after dealing the latter two for nine prospects, it appeared this would certainly be a rebuilding year. Now that the club has blown the doors off the first half of the season and is currently within striking distance of the wild card, it might be a little harder to justify dropping another marquee name. I wouldn’t expect anything to happen here until the very last minute of the July 31^st trading deadline.

The Rays are still in the market for an outfield bat, and have all but released a statement announcing that they have pulled out of the arms race. Their new target: an outfield bat. The man they are pursuing: Matt Holliday. The likelihood of this happening: probably zero. The Rockies are driving a hard line and have apparently asked for top pitching prospect David Price in return, which means this thing probably is going nowhere. The Rockies have no real motivation to deal Holliday as he is under contract for another season, and Price is a big part of the Rays long term plans. Remember, they got in this position by being patient. But then again, we have seen Cameron Maybin, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt LaPorta all dealt in recent months.

Lastly, and most possibly the most bizarre rumor, is that the Orioles are heavily pursuing David Eckstein, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. The asking price probably wouldn’t be very high, but why would either club want to pursue this?

No one ever said the trade market made sense.

After a rough start Sabathia has bounced back and once again looks like one of the most dominate pitchers in the game. Over his last 14 starts, he has a 2.16 ERA and has struck out 109 hitters against 20 walks in 104 innings, after posting a 7.88 ERA in April.

So any worries about his stuff should have been quelled, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t dominate against the lesser foes that will oppose him in the National League. There’s not a single pitcher, not Brandon Webb, not Edinson Volquez, maybe not even Johan Santana, that can rival Sabathia’s stuff. So, on paper, yes, the Brewers just got a whole lot better.

They don’t have anyone that is going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon so adding a pitcher is the right move. Outside of Ben Sheets they hardly have a serviceable pitcher that can count on to march out there and pick up a win every fifth day, and their bullpen- well three of their late-inning guys have ERAs over 5.00. So, getting another guy that can eat up innings and keep them in the pen is a huge help.

But, how much impact can one guy have? Sabathia is only going to have a chance to make an impact every fifth day, so how many starts is that by the end of September? 12-15? So if he doesn’t dominate in at least 10 of those, it’s going to be a disappointing trade. As far as deadline deals go, bullpen arms and position players tend to have more of an impact because they can make a difference on a daily basis.

As I pointed out in my pre-trade article, since the strike only three starters that were dealt at the deadline have went on to win a playoff game: Jeff Weaver, Oliver Perez, and David Weathers. That’s not very reassuring if you’re a Brewers fan. Especially when you consider that they gave up a top ten position prospect in Matt LaPorta for a possible rental player that may not make even get them to the playoffs.

What about the Indians, though, they definitely won here, right? Well, maybe, and maybe not. LaPorta projects to be a solid major league player. He’s currently hitting .288/.402/.576 with 45 walks, 63 K’s, and 20 homers in 302 at-bats. He draws walks, and hits homers, but he does strike out a lot. The Brewers have used him in the outfield, but scouts believe that his future is at first base, where he is expected to be above average defensively.

Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson are the other two players who were acquired in this trade. Scouts believe that Bryson could be the gem of this trade. He’s not quite there yet, but in a few years he could prove to be the Francisco Liriano of this deal. Meaning that he’s not the headliner of the deal, but he could end up being the most valuable asset. Last year in Rookie Ball he posted a 2.67 ERA with 70 Ks and 12 walks in 54 innings. This season hasn’t been so kind, as he’s currently sitting on a 4.25 ERA with 73 Ks and 20 walks in 55 innings. “Bryson has a potential plus fastball/slider combo and misses a ton of bats already with both pitches,” explains Rob Neyer.

As for Jackson, well, I’m not impressed with him. He has a career 5.36 ERA at the major league level, and apparently doesn’t have the ability to get hitters out. But, maybe Cleveland will win with the player to be named later, who, as rumor has it, will be third baseman Taylor Green, who scouts say has All-Star potential.

This deal isn’t going to work out like the Bartolo Colon heist of 2002, but it could work out nice for Cleveland. LaPorta is almost a lock to materialize as an impact bat, but the other players represent a bunch of question marks. I’m just surprised that Cleveland didn’t hold out until the deadline and let things heat up a little more. With a couple more suitors involved they could have gotten a better package.

Despite that, I’d say Cleveland got a winner here; the jury is still out on the Brewers. If CC doesn’t win them a World Series, and he walks next season, you have to call it a bust, right?

For some clubs it’s an easy decision. Teams like the Mariners have very little hope for the future, so there is little sense in holding onto anything that isn’t bolted to the clubhouse floor. Teams like the Rockies, on the other hand, have a plethora of young talent but can’t seem to get it together for whatever reason.

But that those aren’t the only tough choices to be made, teams that are in the hunt may have the toughest decisions to make. It’s a delicate situation. Do you go all in at the expense of the future for huge rewards now, or do you try to make a go with what you got, knowing that the future could be brighter if you hold off?

A word to the wise for all those looking to cash in their chips for a chance at CC Sabathia and post-season glory: these things almost never work out.

Take the Cardinals for example. In 2005 they decided to mortgage their future by dealing a young Dan Haren to the Athletics for Mark Mulder. Mulder had a solid 2005, posting a 3.64 ERA, but their all or nothing approach backfired as they fell short of their World Series dreams, losing to the Astros in the NLCS. The next season, with Mulder on the shelf with injuries for all but 93 innings, the Cardinals would go on to win the World Series after picking up Jeff Weaver off the scrap heap at the deadline. Since then, Mulder has pitched in only 12.1 innings while Haren has emerged as one of the game’s premier aces.

This isn’t the only case, though. Few of these deals prove to make much of a difference. Outside of Weaver, Mike Torrez of the 1977 Yankees is the only other pitcher acquired at the deadline to win a World Series game, and since the strike only two pitchers acquired at the Deadline have won a postseason game: Oliver Perez for the 2006 Mets, and David Weathers for the 1996 Yankees.

So the lesson here is that those positioning themselves to win the Sabathia sweepstakes might want to think twice. Despite the pressure from their fans to make a move, the Brewers have been reluctant to jump into anything. They currently have one to the top minor league systems in the majors, with three players named to Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week, so outside of the Rays, they may be in the best position to acquire his services. Although, it doesn’t look as if either club is going to make a major push for him, the Rays aren’t interested, and the Indians are driving a hard line and refuse to part with Sabathia unless they net Milwaukee’s top prospect, Matt LaPorta, whom the Brewers refuse to part with [editor's note:  The Brewers have since moved off their stance and sent LaPorta and a pair of prospects to the Indians for Sabathia].

It’s the right move. A move like this can destroy an organization. The Brewers current circumstances are eerily similar to those of the Expos in 2002. They were 3 ½ games back on July 27 when they sent Lee Stevens, Bradon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Colon. After acquiring the pitcher they played sub .500 ball the rest of the way and finished 19 games back. Colon would walk during the offseason, and Lee, Sizemore and Phillips would all turn into stars. Think the Nationals wish they could have that one back?

If you’re a flawed team no one player can ever fix your problems. So, unless you are certain that one player will change your fortunes, which as it’s been proven time again, he won’t, it’s not worth trading in the future for now. What’s worst, trading away your future to watch it walk out the door that off season, and then trolling in last place for the next decade as you rebuild?  Or missing the playoffs narrowly and then competing the next five years with homegrown talent?

The essence of the Chicago Cubs may have never been captured more eloquently than it was in those four sentences penned by Buzz Bissinger.

Unfortunately, he was ahead of his time with this diagnosis. The passage was wrote last June, since then that beery stench has had a little more than a year to ferment, and the everlasting adage, “Maybe next year,” has been granted another year of clemency on the North Side, although it’s reign as the cliché of choice in Chicago could quickly be coming to an end.

Ironically enough, it comes at a time when the team’s foundation couldn’t be in more dire straits. The historical landmark that the Cubs call home, Wrigley Field, is in serious jeopardy of having its trademark ivy stripped from the walls in favor of the ubiquitous advertisements that litter the outfields of the rest of the ballparks in America. Their ownership group is actively shopping the club to the highest bidder, but, in their defense, they’ve continued to actively pursue free agents in an attempt to procure the ever evasive championship. With the help of a $300 million dollar spending spree that netted them Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Mark DeRose, Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly last winter, and the signing of Kosuke Fukudome this winter, along with a healthy Kerry Wood, the Cubs have jockeyed themselves in a favorable position to capture their first World Title in a century.

There’s no doubting their talent, top to bottom, they may be the most able bodied team in the National League, as they have proved with their early assault on National League foes. The only question now is if they have what it takes to sustain.

Ideally, for a club to get into the playoffs they have to have great health, a great rotation, but most importantly, great luck. They have to have what it takes to grind out those close games during the dog days of August, they have to be able to capture those one run games, as the Angles have, and the Dimondbacks did last season, Pythagorean be damned.

So far the Cubs have played up to their potential, as proved by the one game difference between their actual record and their Pythagorean record. The only discrepancy with their Major League leading 49-33 record is that they are 18-21 in two run games, which at this point is nitpicking, but they certainly could improve in this area. The Cardinals, on the other hand are 20-19 in those same games, which, ultimately, could prove to be the difference between a trip to the playoffs and watching from home.

As a whole, their pitching has been stellar where they rank first in wins, last in losses, second in saves, and fourth in strikeouts and ERA. Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano have proved to be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, and Ted Lilly is starting to come around after posting a 3.21 ERA and a 3-1 record in June. Even the 22 year-old Sean Gallagher has been solid while filling in for the troubled Rich Hill, who, seemingly, lost the ability to spot the ball early on this year.

As good as the starters have been the true difference maker for this team has been their bullpen. Just last year it appeared as though Kerry Wood’s career was over. Once the heir apparent to other great Texans such as Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens, Wood appeared to be forever relegated to a cautionary story of how not to handle pitchers after spending the better part of nine years on the disabled list recovering from a laundry list of injuries including: a torn labrum, a torn rotator cuff, and a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Fast forward a year, and suddenly he is back in the saddle as one of the game’s premier, and most dominate, closers. His 20 saves currently rank third in the NL, and his 2.50 ERA isn’t too shabby either. Also, with Carlos Marmol, Michael Wuertz and Jon Liber dominating, all the starters have to do is preserve a lead long enough for these guys to take over and it’s lights out.

Then there’s the offense which ranks first in average, OBP, slugging, walks, hits, and runs, second in doubles, and fourth in home runs. In other words, there isn’t really a weak spot in this entire line-up. Geovany Soto is quickly emerging as one of the game’s premier sluggers, as a catcher no-less, and has already amassed 13 homers and 47 RBI. Derrek Lee has re-invented himself at the age of 32 after a season in which it looked as though he’d lost the ability to be an effective power hitter. Aramis Ramirez is piecing together one of his finest seasons, Mark DeRosa is on a terror, and on the list goes. Even Jim Edmonds has turned it around and is currently hitting .302 after batting an embarrassing .178 with the Padres, after being cut and left for dead 26 games into the season.

From the looks of it, with the game’s biggest run differential, and best record, along with a recent 14 game home winning streak, the Cubs should be primed to participate in their first World Series since 1945, right?

Well, maybe, but for everything they have working for them, Murphy’s Law has been working overtime to keep this club grounded, and possibly out of the playoffs altogether. First there are the injuries; Alfonso Soriano is on his second trip to the DL, and even though the club has done well to circumvent a collapse without their catalyst both times, it’s going to be hard for them to continue to do so. His first trip they went 9-6 without him, this time, in large part to also being without Carlos Zambrano, they are 7-9, and he could be out for another three weeks. Zambrano is set to pitch against the Cardinals on July 4.

The biggest red flag is certainly found in their split stats, where they are 33-10 at home, and 16-23 on the road. Away from Wrigley their team ERA jumps from 3.64 to 4.20, and their batting averages dip from .311/.391/.500 to .256/.331/.386, which is cause for alarm. The good news is that if the season were to end today they’d have home field advantage throughout the playoffs; the bad news is that if they don’t step it up on the road, they may not get there.

But, say what you will about their health, or lack-there-of, overcoming adversity is what it’s all about. The teams that can conquer their demons prosper, while those that can’t- well, they don’t. For the first time Cubs fans, who largely identify themselves with losing and the ivy walls, and little else, actually feel like they can win. This mindset shouldn’t have an adverse affect on the players, but it does. When everyone thinks you can’t win, a lot of times, you don’t.

The Red Sox did it-twice, the White Sox did it, so why not the Cubs? They’ve never looked better, they’re doing everything right, and for the first time in a long while, they have guys that know how to win. Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Alfonso Soriano, and Derrek Lee have all won rings. This team has an average age of 30.1 and 12 of their players have more than 10 years of experience, so it may be now or never, but for the first time in a long while, now doesn’t seem so preposterous.

When Upton tore through April with a .327/.372/.554 line along with five homers and 15 RBI, no one raised an eyebrow. It was a spectacular start to what is promised to be a brilliant career. No one expected him to come crashing down, it wasn’t as if he was on some other worldly Jay Bruce-esque terror, this was exactly what Upton was going do for the next ten years. This was the same guy that came within a single of hitting for the cycle in his fifth major league game last season, so no one thought maintaining a .300 average was really asking for much.

The Diamondbacks definitely didn’t think so when they starting campaigning him as the new face of their franchise. Neither did ESPN after they plastered his face on the cover of their season preview which proclaimed him the future of  the sport, at a time when he was only coming off his second minor league season in which his stats (.319/.410/.551 18 homers, 70 RBI) were good, but not spectacular.

So maybe his decline was inevitable, if not expected.  Chalk it up to growing pains if you wish, but as quickly as Upton ascended up the ranks, he’s come crashing back down twice as fast. If Upton’s .216/.367/.409 line in May was rough, than the .113/.319/.226 averages he’s posted for June are ghastly. At least in May he still hit three homers and drove in 12 runs, this month he’s hit one homerun, which also accounts for his single RBI.

His only saving grace is that he’s still taking walks.  He’s collected 34 of his 60 walks the last two months, which is amazing considering how badly he’s been pressing. Actually, I wouldn’t even call it pressing; Upton is being flat out being fooled every time he steps into the batter’s box. His 89 strikeouts rank fourth in the National League.  In case you are in need of some perspective, since April he’s striking out every 2.8 times he comes to the plate.

Upton is supposed to be a five-tool prospect, and one day he’ll realize that, but right now he’s not hitting, his power has evaporated, his running is non-existent (he’s been caught stealing in 75% of his attempts), he isn’t driving in runs, and on top of all that, he isn’t even fielding well either, as he currently leads the league at his position with 8 errors.

It’s becoming painfully clear that Upton needs to spend some time in the minors to get a little more seasoning. He’s the second youngest player in the majors, so he isn’t going anywhere.  Neither is the league. We’ve seen how good he can be, he just isn’t ready to step in the box against the likes of Johan Santana on a nightly basis. There’s nothing wrong with that, he’s young. That doesn’t make him bust, so don’t go pulling that label out just yet.

Hell, even Mickey Mantle needed to be re-assigned his first time up. Upton can go back down to the farm and still become the next Ted Williams like everyone expects him to be, that time just isn’t now.

Jay Bruce needs to go down too…

Jay Bruce may not be far behind Upton on that bus back to the minor leagues. After exceeding even the loftiest expectations his first week in the bigs by hitting .577/.667/1.038 with 3 homers and 7 RBI, his production has fallen off drastically. In the 22 games since then, he’s been hitting .191/.245/.258 with just one homer and 7 RBI. Possibly more alarming is this: in the first seven games he only struck out once while drawing six walks, in the games following the dream week he’s struck out 30 times and picked up only 7 walks.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. It’s February, the season is coming to an end, and everyone is gearing up for the tournament. Beasley is completely assaulting the Big 12, dwarfing the numbers put up by fellow freshman phenom Kevin Durant, who destroyed basically every freshman record known to man the previous year.

With his ability to finish with both hands, score from inside or out, rebound, and block shots, it almost seemed as if he was created in a laboratory to be the perfect modern big-man. This guy was going to be a problem. There’s was no doubt in anyone’s mind, Beasley was the best first year player we had ever seen, and the consensus No.1 pick in everyone’s mock drafts

Now, while you’re at it, go ahead and take it back to a year ago.

Greg Oden and Durant, who ushered in the freshmen era of College Basketball, were the consensus top two in the draft, these guys were so good, in fact, that teams were deliberately tanking games to raise their odds in the lottery. Durant was the one with the superfluous talent, but, unfortunately, his team bowed out to USC early in the tournament, like Beasley. Oden entered the collegiate ranks with much fanfare, but due to injuries, he was forced to the sidelines early on. But, like Rose, he carried his team to the NCAA finals, only to lose in the championship game.

During this time Oden shot past Durant on most draft boards, and ended up being taken first by the Blazers. Durant was selected second by the Sonics.

This year the same thing happened. Despite being the most dominate player in the collegiate ranks for the entire season, just or not, everyone began to justify Beasley’s heart. The go-to diagnosis by the draft experts was that he didn’t have a ‘champions drive’. Shouldn’t he get some credit for single handidly carrying Kansas State to the tournament and past USC in the first round?

How this is a measurable attribute is beyond me, and, from the looks of it, it seems that the playing field was drasitically skewed in Rose’s favor. Never mind that Rose had a superior coach, supporting cast, and facilities. He got his team to the final, so he suddenly has more drive than Beasley. Is Paul Pierce suddenly a better player now that he has a championship ring? Is Chris Paul a lesser point guard than Rajon Rondo?

While the stocks of both Oden and Rose rose due to their tournament performances, there is one major difference: Oden is a big man. The NBA has always been infatuated with building around a center. The last time a player under 6’8 was taken with the number one pick was in 1996 when the 76ers took Allen Iverson. Since then, every player taken with the top pick was either a center or a power forward with the exception of Lebron James.

Basically, it comes down to need and fit. The Bulls needed a point guard and a leader; they haven’t had either for a long time. They already have Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Chris Duhon and Larry Hughes, but none of them are true point guards. They also could use a force down low. Andres Nocioni, Noah, Joe Smith, Ty Thomas, and Drew Gooden are good second options, but none can be considered a go-to-guy.

Although, the roster shouldn’t matter, you draft the best player and build around him. Sure, Rose is an instant improvement over any of their guards, so you make room for him through a trade, but what are you really going to get back? They aren’t going to get anything better than what they already have in the post. Beasley will be able to step in and be a difference maker from day one, I’m not so sure Rose gives you that.

He has court vision beyond his years, and he’s super unselfish, something this team needs with all their weapons, but, unless Rose transforms into Chris Paul 2.0, this could end up being a huge mistake. Hinrich To justify this pick he’s going to have to be drastically better than any of the guards they have. Not right away, but in a few years. If he doesn’t get there John Paxson is going to look like a major idiot.

But wait, the reason the Bulls drafted Rose ahead of Beasley is because they need leadership. This was a team that fell apart at the seams last season, and let’s faces it; Beasley is a huge character risk. He went to about 32 high schools and signed his name on his principles car. Big deal. Granted, Beasley isn’t going to step in and lead a team, not now, maybe not ever. It’s too soon to tell, he’s a kid, but from the looks of things, neither is Rose. Last season with Memphis he was hardly known to say a word in the locker room, but he did earn the respect of his teammates with his hard work and determination.

It’s easy to see why the Bulls took Rose, it was the easy pick. He’s the hometown kid, he’s a legit talent, and the risks are minimal. The character flaws that scared everyone away from Beasley may have been overblown a bit, but, when juxtaposed to the squeaky clean Rose, he is somewhat of a risk. I don’t know, though, 20 and 10 from day one looks real nice to me.

At the end of the day, the Bulls got a great player with a ton of upside. Beasley may have been the better player all along, but Rose isn’t that far behind. You got to love a kid that told the press that Beasley was way better than him in the weeks leading up to the draft. But someone should tell Pat Riley he got a gift. Marion, Beasley, Wade. If you ask me, that’s a monster.

I may be in the minority here, but forget first ballot, I’m not even sure this man belongs in the same halls as Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and all the other great hitters the game has seen, or, let alone, just off the property with Pete Rose. This is a guy that has never hit 35 doubles in season, or drove in 70 runs. He’s had an OBP over .400 once, and has never slugged above .457. In his defense, Ichiro is something of an unstoppable hits machine, but then again, how valuable are 200 singles when they come from a position where offense isn’t exactly at a premium? If he were doing what he does as a shortstop or a second baseman, he’d be fantastic, as a right fielder, not so much.

Ichiro isn’t a dangerous hitter. I mean, seriously, what’s the worst he could do? Hit a single? The guy isn’t going to beat you, you don’t get scared with the game on the line when Ichiro gets to the plate. With a runner on first, if he makes contact, it’s not like he’s really going to advance a runner more than a base. Due to lacking secondary hitting skills, which means the ability to take a walk or hit for power, he needs to hit .350 or higher to be effective. Some season’s he does that, in others he doesn’t.

His career OPS+ is just 118, which I’m aware doesn’t take steals or defensive efficiency into account, but we aren’t talking about Rickey Henderson here. Ichiro is trying to make up for his inefficiencies thus far by trying to swipe more bags, but he’s going to have to steal about 70 bases to really be a difference maker. In an attempt to put things into perspective, he’s only 43rd among active hitters in OPS+ , right between Mike Sweeney and Eric Chavez. Not very elite company if you ask me.

This year that figure is at 99. It’s not hard for anyone to see that Ichiro has lost a step, he’s only reaching base on 10 percent of his infield hits, where his career average was once 12.2. His defense is still at a premium level, but at this point, how valuable is he? He’s only reached base 118 times, with a mere 14 of those going for extra bases, and drove in 19 runs and scored 53 times. How much does that really help the Mariners? His .288 average isn’t very impressive either.

Right now, there’s a .218 hitter who has reached base 108 times with 26 extra base hits, 43 RBI, and has scored 38 times. His OPS is 126. Going by those figures it’d be hard to make a case for Ichiro against the .218 hitter. His name: Adam Dunn.

If Dunn isn’t more effective than Ichiro, there isn’t much of a gap between the two. Sure, they are cut from a different cloth, Dunn has the secondary skills, but lacks the ability to hit for average, and Ichiro is the complete opposite. The point is, they are both lacking in one area of another, but Dunn makes up for it by taking walks and helping his team win games with his bat. Ichiro’s skill set just puts others in a position to excel, he isn’t a difference maker. Now I wouldn’t ever suggest that Dunn is a Hall-of-Famer, but for some reason everyone is damn sure that Ichiro is one of the best players in the game despite gobs of evidence proving otherwise. If you want to get crazy, what really makes Ichiro’s bat that much better than Placido Polanco’s?

Simply put, Ichiro is a solid ballplayer that I’d classify as good. He’s can hardly be considered a stud, and he doesn’t deserve that MVP he’s toting around, let alone a plaque in Cooperstown. The fact that he has as many MVP awards as guys like Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, and Ken Griffey Jr., drives me crazy, when he’s never, ever, for even a single season, been as effective as those guys. You could argue that John Olerud, Bret Boone, and Edgar Martinez were all more effective than Ichiro during the 2001 season and win, but that’s a different article.

I won’t argue the effect that this man has on the game. He deserves his global popularity. He hits for average and runs the bases extremely well, and his defense is outstanding. There’s no denying that he’s worth the attention he gets. However, through the prism of talent and on-field performance, he is not.

Cooperstown? He wouldn’t get my vote.

To say this season has been odd would be a gross understatement. The teams that were supposed to flounder from the jump are succeeding, and those that were supposed to dominate are floundering.

This creates an odd climate where the usual buyers are now sellers, and vice versa. The Rockies and Mariners, who were both expected to be in the mix, are now shopping everything that isn’t bolted to the clubhouse floor. For instance, both Florida teams are expected to be active at the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. The Rays need to find a big bat to put in their outfield, and the Marlins are in desperate need of a capable arm to add to their rotation.

“We’re going to approach it like we have the past two years,” Rays GM Andrew Friedman explains. “The difference is there are going to be some names on our target list that wouldn’t have been there in the past.”

Mark one for Bud Selig’s revenue sharing system, despite atrocious attendance figures both of the Florida clubs will be able to afford to go shopping for post season glory, where in years past, they’d have to play with the hand they were dealt. The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, and Giants are also rumored to be shopping for an impact player or two.

Teams are already taking inquiries about the biggest prizes available on the market. The Pirates are taking calls for Jason Bay and the surprising Xavier Nady, the Mariners are shopping everything not named Ichiro, and the Reds are loudly looking to move Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. A few dark horse candidates include the Brewers Ben Sheets, and the Padres are rumored to be looking to unload Greg Maddux, Brian Giles and Rand Wolf. But the biggest prizes are expected to come in the form of C.C. Sabathia and Matt Holliday.

The Indians season can only be described as a colossal disappointment thus far, but they still haven’t ruled out singing Sabathia to an extension, although, it is much more likely that they won’t. Management has taken a hands off approach on this issue, meaning that if things turn around and they start winning games they’ll hold onto Sabathia and take the draft picks when he walks, if it looks like they are out of it come July, they’ll put a for sale sign on him and shop him to the highest bidder.

In such a scenario the Yankees would likely aggressively pursue Sabathia. They have the funds to lock him up to a long term deal, and all the motivation in the world to do so, especially after losing out on Johan Santana. Their starters have been unreliable, posting the fewest innings in the American League, and have been ineffective for the most part, landing someone like Sabathia, who has posted a 2.43 ERA through May and June, would help them close the gap on the surging Red Sox.

Either way, assuming that he’ll be retained, Brian Cashman knows that he needs to add a reliable arm to a shaky rotation. Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain may go to have brilliant careers, but in the interim, he needs someone that can go out and deliver night after night. Mike Mussina has been ineffective and is nearing the end of his brilliant career, and with Chien Ming-Wang on the shelf for the foreseeable future, it only makes sense to pursue Sabathia. If he proves to be unattainable, look for them to focus on the Mariners Erik Bedard.

On the surface the same would seem to be true for Matt Holliday. He’s 28, and coming off a season in which he hit .340/.405/.607 with 36 homers and 137 RBI and finished second in MVP voting, but it’s not that simple. First of all, there’s the Scott Boras factor, meaning that whoever traded for him would have to make sure they could sign him to an extension before dealing for him.

Reportedly, over the winer O’Dowd made a quiet attempt to find out if the team had a shot at signing Holliday in an attempt to keep the core of his team together for years to come. Apparently, GM Dan O’Dowd walked away very discouraged, as his attempt to retain the young slugger in the range of $18 million a season over five years was considered laughable by Holliday’s people. Boras isn’t stupid, he knows that as a free agent the negotiations will start around $20 million a year over the course of six or seven seasons, and depending on the market, it could inflate a lot higher than that.

More importantly, there is the Coors Field factor. Everyone would love for you to believe that all of the advantages that the Rocky Mountain atmosphere provides to hitters were quelled when they started storing balls in the humidor, but that would be a lie. All you have to do is take a look at Holliday’s split stats to see that he has been Bruce Banner on the road and the Incredible Hulk at home. It’s not just a little difference, so far this season Holliday has hit .359/.432/.618 with 6 homers and 25 RBI in 33 games at Coors, and .284/.376/.402 with 2 homers and 8 RBI in 25 games away from it.

So will he be made available? It’s hard to say. Early indications say yes, but with Troy Tulowitzki on his way back from the disabled list, it’s possible that the Rockies will hold onto Holliday and try to recapture last year’s magic, but even they know this is unlikely after starting the season 32-43. Still, with more than a year before Holliday becomes eligible for free agency, would O’Dowd really trade his best player? The Dodgers and Mets have already begun inquiring about the Rocky Mountain wonder, and if he becomes available, one of them is expected to win the sweepstakes.

For the Dodgers, it would probably cost them considerably more to O’Dowd to move the slugger to a division rival, and in the end, it may not be the wisest move for them. Los Angeles still isn’t quite sure what a healthy Andruw Jones can provide them, and with Rafeal Furcal, Brad Penny, and Hiroki Kuroda on their way back from injuries, along with a few developing youngsters, they may have a enough to make a run in the weak NL West. A trade for Holliday would have to include Matt Kemp, in which case Holliday would end up being a mere mortal in LA, and Kemp would transform into Holliday playing in Coors.

The Mets are desperate to break out of the funk they’ve been in since last September, and it’s starting to look like their breakdown was not the exception, and is, indeed, the norm. Their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in everything that matters, and their pitching is, at best, pedestrian, so they could also be in the market for an Erik Bedard or Sabathia. But, first and foremost, they are in dire need to replace Moises Alou, but after mortgaging the farm over the winter to acquire Johan Santana, they may not have the haul needed to net Holliday.

Early indications suggest that O’Dowd would only consider dealing Holliday if he could find a team willing to send him a package similar to what the Indians got for Bartolo Colon in 2003, which means the Mets have been disqualified by default, and that O’Dowd is being a little unreasonable. This move is considered to be one of the all-time heists, no team is going to give him the equivalent of Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for Holliday, at least not on purpose. Still, the Mets don’t have much choice, this team is sinking, and sinking fast, they have to try to make a move before next winter.

Chances are the rumors will be the most exciting part of the deadline, as there is always a lot of talk and little action, but the real winners and losers aren’t always decided by the trades. Last year’s big movers (Mark Tiexeria to the Braves, Luis Castillo to the Mets, and Eric Gagne to the Red Sox) had little impact overall. In fact, Gagne almost cost the Red Sox the title. So the teams that know when to stand pat will end up being the real winners.

]]> http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/will-holliday-and-sabathia-be-dealt/feed/ http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/should-brandon-phillips-be-hitting-fourth/ http://www.imwritingsports.com/baseball/should-brandon-phillips-be-hitting-fourth/#comments Sun, 22 Jun 2008 07:00:32 +0000 Nick Underhill http://www.imwritingsports.com/?p=883 When I look at what Dusty Baker has accomplished in this game, sometimes I wonder if the bad wrap he gets is unwarranted. His teams win. He’s taken several of them to the playoffs, where he led the Giants to the World Series in 2002, and had the Cubs a few outs away in 2003. His .527 lifetime winning percentage ranks him only behind Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, and Joe Torre, but ahead of every other manager in the game. He’s a three-time National League Manager of the Year award winner.

Clearly this man is qualified to do his job. Yet, there may not be a more scrutinized man alive. Why? Because he makes it easy, if you listen to him speak baseball, or even better, watch him do his job, it’s not hard to see why he’s such an easy target.

He’s famous for saying inane things, like how he hates slow footed sluggers that “clog the bases” by taking walks. Quotes such as these have sent the sabrmetric guru’s off the deep end, and while I’m not a big advocate of some of the methods they use, on-base percentage doesn’t fall under this umbrella. Anyone that doesn’t see the value in taking a walk as opposed to –say- striking out doesn’t really belong in the game.

“I’m big on driving in runs and scoring runs,” Baker explains. “Guys in the middle should score about close to equal what they drive in. On-base percentage, that’s fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It’s becoming a little bit out of control.”

What Baker fails to realize that having a man on base puts his team is in a better position to manufacture a run. He loses an opportunity If the hitter strikes out. It’s better to walk than strike out. It seems like a moot point to explain, but apparently, for some people, it’s necessary.

The most recent beef with Baker is for how he fills out his line-up card. Particularly for batting Brandon Phillips clean-up. This isn’t anything new, last season Phillips filled the void by taking his cuts from the four-hole after being called upon to do so by former manager Jerry Narron, even though he only had two previous career appearances there.

You’d think that Baker would favor a more prototypical player to bat clean-up, but then again, considering that Phillips hit 30 homers with 94 RBI from the spot last season, despite his lack of size, it actually makes perfect sense. It also allows Baker to implement his lefty-righty line-up, since he can slot Phillips right handed bat between Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn. So it’s easy to see why Baker has followed Narron’s lead, he hit a lot of homers, and drove in runs, so why fix what’s not broken?

The problem is, it’s horribly broken, Baker is just too old school to realize. You can’t expect a man that doesn’t understand OBP to look beyond back of a baseball card for proof. If he had, he’d realize that Phillips is miserably miscast. According to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Donovan, last year, as a clean-up hitter, Phillips posted one of the lowest slugging percentages (.493) and one of the worst OBP’s (.352) in all of baseball. If that isn’t bad enough, Phillips only converted 13% of his chances with runners in scoring position, placing him in the bottom half of all hitters in the league.

If that isn’t enough, last season in 650 plate appearances, Phillips walked only 33 times, placing him among the worst in baseball among hitters with that many appearances. This season he already has walked 21times but, in large part to a .264 BA, his OBP is way down to .313. Surprisingly, Baker is aware of Phillips inability to get on base, and is encouraging him to take more walks since he is an effective base stealer (Phillips is 13-16 in stolen base attempts this season). But, of course, he would much rather have him swing his bat.

“If you’re supposed to be up there driving in runs… a run producer, he ain’t up there to get his on-base percentage up. He’s in there to drive in runs,” says Baker. “If you’re passing it on to the next hitter, a lot of times, he’s not as good of a hitter as you. Otherwise he’d be hitting ahead of you.”

Some people would argue that the line-up doesn’t really matter, which is Baker’s only saving grace here, but I don’t subscribe to this school of thought. Penciling Phillips in at clean-up doesn’t exactly hurt the team, but it also doesn’t utilize all of his assets properly.

Ideally, with his speed, Phillips would be batting second, with some combination of Bruce, Griffey, and Dunn behind him. This would allow him to utilize his skills as a base runner, and with some bigger bats behind him, he’d also score more runs. In a perfect world Jay Bruce would also move out the lead-off spot where his natural gifts are also being handcuffed, but right now the Reds don’t have anyone with the tools to suffice as a table setter. Once Bruce can slide down, and they find a serviceable replacement at the top of the order, they should be able to generate some more runs. The key to winning is still scoring runs, right?

Someone send Dusty a memo.

Bradley’s a fighter, it’s what makes him a great baseball player, yet it also causes him to go after umpires, announcers, or even fans when he feels slighted. Bradley knows who he is. He’s well aware that he’s his own worst enemy, and that the fans, umpires, and media hate him, he just doesn’t care. That’s what makes him so fascinating. As much as people hate him, they can’t help but watch him. He embodies all the characteristics of a great post-modern figure. Tragic events following him at every turn as he flames out and self-destructs each time he arrives on the cusp of greatness, forever his own worst enemy.

Last year he looked like he was finally ready to break out of his trap after being dealt from the Athletics to the Padres, by hitting an incident free .313/.414/.590 with 11 homers and 30 RBI after joining the club on July 7. The deal was the turning point in San Diego’s season, as Bradley’s arrival had them poised to capture the NL West crown.

Staying true to form, Bradley self-destructed on September 22, taking the Padres down with him. As the story goes, after Bradley hit a single into the outfield, he started jawing with Umpire Mike Winters at first base. The situation quickly escalated and Winters to called him a “bleeping piece of s***.” Bradley lost it and had to be restrained from attacking Winters. As Bud Black was pulling him away from the scene Bradley twisted his knee and tore his ACL.

The incident wasn’t entirely Bradley’s fault. Winters shouldn’t have said what he said even though Bradley provoked the umpires twice earlier in the game, his team shouldn’t have tried to carry him off the field, but at the end of the day, Bradley should have kept his emotions in check. Winters ended up being suspended for five games by Major League Baseball, but Bradley was the real loser in this situation. The Padres ended up finishing the final week of the season 4-3, and then lost a one game playoff with the Rockies for the NL West crown, causing him to miss the playoffs for the second time due to a suspension. The other coming in 2004 during an incident in which he threw a bottle at a fan while with the Dodgers.

“There was nothing I did to get sent out of the game,” Bradley said. “It just so happened I got hurt. I got kicked out of the game. I come back the next day, everything’s beautiful. And we make the playoffs. We only had to win one game.”

For Bradley the worst of it, at least on a personal level, was that the incident only reinforced his reputation as a loose cannon, which is why he was only able to command $5.25 million as a free agent.

“Say Hello to the Bad Guy,” Bradley explained earlier this year during a press conference during a moment of introspection, “That’s going to be my song – Jay-Z, on the ‘American Gangster’ soundtrack. I’m the angry guy. I’m the bad guy. I’m fighting through it.”

Bradley isn’t exactly working to put his demons to rest, but for now it seems that he has them in check. There was a recent incident where he tried to go after Royals announcer Ryan Laefebvre after hearing the broadcaster make a derogatory remark about him on air. Lefebvre had complimented Josh Hamilton for taking responsibility for his mistakes and then added, “it doesn’t appear Milton Bradley has done the same thing in his life.” After hearing the remarks, Bradley became incensed and had to be restrained by Rangers manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels before he could charge the booth.

“All I want to do is play baseball and make a better life for my kid than I had, that’s it,’ Bradley explained after the incident. “I love all you guys… I’m strong, but I’m not that strong.”

At 30 years-old, chances are he’s never going to change, but he may finally realize what’s at stake now. As crazy as he may be, he’s an ever better ball player, yet no one seems to notice. When speaking about him someone is more likely to mention his name in conjunction with Elijah Dukes than they are with the game’s elite hitters. Bradley belongs in both categories, but his talent and accomplishments shouldn’t be lost in the shadow of his temper.

You’d never know that Bradley’s current line of .329/.451/.630 places him atop of the American League leader board in each category. Or that with 15 homers (fourth overall) and 46 RBI (seventh) he’s in reach of a triple crown. He’d have to increase his RBI production considerably as he’s 27 off the pace Hamilton has set, but it’s not completely out of reach.

Bradley’s a legitimate talent, and a legitimate time bomb. The question is: will he ever keep himself in check long enough to realize his potential? Maybe more importantly, can he stay healthy? He’s only once played in more than 101 games in season.

“You take my last five years, and put those numbers and put them over a 162-game season, I’m pretty damn good. Let’s be honest—I’m a five-tool guy here. There is no risk. You pay me $5 million as a five-tool guy, I’m underpaid. What other five-tool guys are there? Jimmy Rollins? Carlos Beltran? Look what they’re making. Look what I’m making. So I’m a steal, I’m a bargain, in my words.”

A five-tool player? Yes. No risk? I’d like to disagree here. At least until he can prove otherwise, but even if he does, who will take notice?

Because of this, nothing burns me up more than seeing someone on the field or court that doesn’t deserve to be there. It just shows a complete disrespect for the game, you’d think that a fan that cares enough about a sport to cast a ballot would also know enough not to vote for someone that has been sidelined all year, but that’s exactly what happened when Ken Griffey Jr. was named to the team in 1995 after playing in only 27 games the first half of the season while hitting an abysmal .263. All this shows is that kids- or maybe even adults- are voting strictly off of name recognition. Do we really want to leave home field advantage in the hands of a group of people that don’t even know who the best players are?

If this thing is going to be a popularity contest, then I say no. I can understand why a fan would want to see a Griffey Jr. or a Cal Ripken Jr. play in the All-Star game during their final years, but personally I would rather see a cast of current stars, not the ones of yesterday. There are old-timers games that s