Will Sabathia or Holliday be Dealt?

With the weather becoming warmer the easy going nature of the first two months of the season has all but evaporated. The early dismay, which was once easily shrugged off with a simple ‘it’s early’, is now beginning to fester itself into a big ball of anxiety. A few clubs are going to have to take an honest look at their fortunes and decide whether or not they have what it takes to make a go at this thing, or if it’s time to destroy and rebuild.

To say this season has been odd would be a gross understatement. The teams that were supposed to flounder from the jump are succeeding, and those that were supposed to dominate are floundering.

This creates an odd climate where the usual buyers are now sellers, and vice versa. The Rockies and Mariners, who were both expected to be in the mix, are now shopping everything that isn’t bolted to the clubhouse floor. For instance, both Florida teams are expected to be active at the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. The Rays need to find a big bat to put in their outfield, and the Marlins are in desperate need of a capable arm to add to their rotation.

“We’re going to approach it like we have the past two years,” Rays GM Andrew Friedman explains. “The difference is there are going to be some names on our target list that wouldn’t have been there in the past.”

Mark one for Bud Selig’s revenue sharing system, despite atrocious attendance figures both of the Florida clubs will be able to afford to go shopping for post season glory, where in years past, they’d have to play with the hand they were dealt. The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, and Giants are also rumored to be shopping for an impact player or two.

Teams are already taking inquiries about the biggest prizes available on the market. The Pirates are taking calls for Jason Bay and the surprising Xavier Nady, the Mariners are shopping everything not named Ichiro, and the Reds are loudly looking to move Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. A few dark horse candidates include the Brewers Ben Sheets, and the Padres are rumored to be looking to unload Greg Maddux, Brian Giles and Rand Wolf. But the biggest prizes are expected to come in the form of C.C. Sabathia and Matt Holliday.

The Indians season can only be described as a colossal disappointment thus far, but they still haven’t ruled out singing Sabathia to an extension, although, it is much more likely that they won’t. Management has taken a hands off approach on this issue, meaning that if things turn around and they start winning games they’ll hold onto Sabathia and take the draft picks when he walks, if it looks like they are out of it come July, they’ll put a for sale sign on him and shop him to the highest bidder.

In such a scenario the Yankees would likely aggressively pursue Sabathia. They have the funds to lock him up to a long term deal, and all the motivation in the world to do so, especially after losing out on Johan Santana. Their starters have been unreliable, posting the fewest innings in the American League, and have been ineffective for the most part, landing someone like Sabathia, who has posted a 2.43 ERA through May and June, would help them close the gap on the surging Red Sox.

Either way, assuming that he’ll be retained, Brian Cashman knows that he needs to add a reliable arm to a shaky rotation. Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain may go to have brilliant careers, but in the interim, he needs someone that can go out and deliver night after night. Mike Mussina has been ineffective and is nearing the end of his brilliant career, and with Chien Ming-Wang on the shelf for the foreseeable future, it only makes sense to pursue Sabathia. If he proves to be unattainable, look for them to focus on the Mariners Erik Bedard.

On the surface the same would seem to be true for Matt Holliday. He’s 28, and coming off a season in which he hit .340/.405/.607 with 36 homers and 137 RBI and finished second in MVP voting, but it’s not that simple. First of all, there’s the Scott Boras factor, meaning that whoever traded for him would have to make sure they could sign him to an extension before dealing for him.

Reportedly, over the winer O’Dowd made a quiet attempt to find out if the team had a shot at signing Holliday in an attempt to keep the core of his team together for years to come. Apparently, GM Dan O’Dowd walked away very discouraged, as his attempt to retain the young slugger in the range of $18 million a season over five years was considered laughable by Holliday’s people. Boras isn’t stupid, he knows that as a free agent the negotiations will start around $20 million a year over the course of six or seven seasons, and depending on the market, it could inflate a lot higher than that.

More importantly, there is the Coors Field factor. Everyone would love for you to believe that all of the advantages that the Rocky Mountain atmosphere provides to hitters were quelled when they started storing balls in the humidor, but that would be a lie. All you have to do is take a look at Holliday’s split stats to see that he has been Bruce Banner on the road and the Incredible Hulk at home. It’s not just a little difference, so far this season Holliday has hit .359/.432/.618 with 6 homers and 25 RBI in 33 games at Coors, and .284/.376/.402 with 2 homers and 8 RBI in 25 games away from it.

So will he be made available? It’s hard to say. Early indications say yes, but with Troy Tulowitzki on his way back from the disabled list, it’s possible that the Rockies will hold onto Holliday and try to recapture last year’s magic, but even they know this is unlikely after starting the season 32-43. Still, with more than a year before Holliday becomes eligible for free agency, would O’Dowd really trade his best player? The Dodgers and Mets have already begun inquiring about the Rocky Mountain wonder, and if he becomes available, one of them is expected to win the sweepstakes.

For the Dodgers, it would probably cost them considerably more to O’Dowd to move the slugger to a division rival, and in the end, it may not be the wisest move for them. Los Angeles still isn’t quite sure what a healthy Andruw Jones can provide them, and with Rafeal Furcal, Brad Penny, and Hiroki Kuroda on their way back from injuries, along with a few developing youngsters, they may have a enough to make a run in the weak NL West. A trade for Holliday would have to include Matt Kemp, in which case Holliday would end up being a mere mortal in LA, and Kemp would transform into Holliday playing in Coors.

The Mets are desperate to break out of the funk they’ve been in since last September, and it’s starting to look like their breakdown was not the exception, and is, indeed, the norm. Their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in everything that matters, and their pitching is, at best, pedestrian, so they could also be in the market for an Erik Bedard or Sabathia. But, first and foremost, they are in dire need to replace Moises Alou, but after mortgaging the farm over the winter to acquire Johan Santana, they may not have the haul needed to net Holliday.

Early indications suggest that O’Dowd would only consider dealing Holliday if he could find a team willing to send him a package similar to what the Indians got for Bartolo Colon in 2003, which means the Mets have been disqualified by default, and that O’Dowd is being a little unreasonable. This move is considered to be one of the all-time heists, no team is going to give him the equivalent of Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for Holliday, at least not on purpose. Still, the Mets don’t have much choice, this team is sinking, and sinking fast, they have to try to make a move before next winter.

Chances are the rumors will be the most exciting part of the deadline, as there is always a lot of talk and little action, but the real winners and losers aren’t always decided by the trades. Last year’s big movers (Mark Tiexeria to the Braves, Luis Castillo to the Mets, and Eric Gagne to the Red Sox) had little impact overall. In fact, Gagne almost cost the Red Sox the title. So the teams that know when to stand pat will end up being the real winners.