The Harden Factor

Yesterday it was just a rumor that was starting to get some traction: The Cubs were after Rich Harden. The A’s were so sure they wouldn’t get any serious offers, that a club official went out of his way to announce that the oft-injured pitcher would not be dealt.

Maybe it was the press conference. The sight of CC Sabathia hamming it up for the camera’s with a 100-mega watt smile. Maybe it was the smug presence, or that little knowing grin that adorned Doug Melvin’s face through the whole affair. He knew it, everyone watching knew it, so you know that John Henry also knew it: It was official, the Brewers just went up on one up on the Cubs, and the rest of the National League Central, if they didn’t act quickly they’d be in serious danger of becoming the nation’s millennial losers. There was only one decision to make: Would they take it lying down, or would they take action?

So they did what they had to do and targeted the best available man for the job: Rich Harden, quite possibly the most talented pitcher in baseball. Over his last 277.4 innings, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA with 289 K’s against a mere 111 walks.

The problem is, it’s taken him seasons to accumulate those figures. He’s never thrown more than 190 innings in a season, and, in fact, since being called up six years ago, he’s only appeared in an average of 90.3 innings a season. That’s not exactly good news for a fan base that is still trying to recover from the disappointment, better known as Mark Prior.

They’ve been down this road before, where you just kind of hold your breath and hope for the best. If healthy, Harden gives the Cubs the best one-two punch in possibly all of baseball. Carlos Zambrano and Harden can match up with anyone in a short series, including Sabathia and Ben Sheets of the Brewers. If he’s not healthy, well, the Cubs already know how to deal with that.

Even with the warts, this deal looks great on paper. Since Harden returned from the disabled list on May 11 he’s dominated, as he always does when healthy. Once he finally settled in and got his arm stretched out, he took it into another gear, striking out 43 hitters in 32 1/3 innings, while posting a 1.67 ERA for the month of June.

With Harden there’s always a catch, though. His last start was troubling, to say the least, as he labored through five innings, walking four batters, and requiring 95 pitches to retire 15 batters. The start before that, scouts reported that his velocity was way down.

But, bottom line, the Cubs got the more talented pitcher here. They should be able to continue to thwart off the Brewers and Cardinals, if Harden stays healthy. The bad news? Well, there really isn’t any here, at least not in the short term. If Harden falls apart they still have the roster that has them sitting on the league’s best record, and they also have a nice contingency plan since they also acquired Chad Gaudin (5-3, 3.59 ERA, 17 walks, 44 SO) from the A’s.

Losing Matt Murton might hurt in the long run, but the Cubs have to go for it while they can. So even if Harden’s shoulder lands in the first row, the fans won’t mind, at least the Cubs are being aggresive. You can’t knock them for that.