Who Will Breakout in ‘08?

Well, the Superbowl is over, so that means there’s not much going on in the world of sports right now.  There’s Duke and North Carolina, but after that, not much is happening until Spring Training starts up.  With Pitchers and Catchers reporting to their respective camps, now is as good a time as ever to take a look at who we should be looking out for in 2008.  We all know the usual customers, but who is poised to have a breakout season and finally realize their potential?

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers
Ahhh, the Bonderman pick, by law I’m required to include him in this list, but I’m still not ready to give up on him.  Maybe there’s some bias at play here since I watched him come up in the Tigers farm system with the AA Seawolves, it doesn’t matter, because this is the year that he’s actually going to do it.  His numbers last season were more Livan Hernandez than Johan Santana, as they have been throughout his career, but his splits tell a different story.  Through his first 18 starts it looked like he actually decided to cash in on his potential and become a big league pitcher, going 10-1 with a 3.53 ERA, 109 strikeouts, and 25 walks through 119.1 innings.  Then he fell apart through his next ten starts, posting an 8.23 ERA.  If he can get over the bipolar performances, he could be one of the better number 2 pitchers in the league.

Adam Wainwright, Saint Louis Cardinals
Somewhere in the Rick Ankiel hype and quick dissention back to earth, Wainwright’s stellar second half performance got lost in the shuffle.  For Wainwright, it isn’t so much breaking out, as sustaining.  With Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Cardinals are going to need him to be the guy that posted a 2.71 ERA after the break to have a shot at contending in the NL Central.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
It’s hard to believe that it’s been three years since King Felix broke into the league as an 18-year-old phenom.  Since then, he has struggled to adjust to the league while suffering through a rash of injuries.  As long as he doesn’t end up like a Dusty Baker project, it’s not a matter of if he will break out, it’s when.  You could already say that he has arrived, but I don’t think this kid is even close to realizing his potential.  Hernandez has the ability to reach Pedro Martinez, circa 2003, status. 

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s been a long and rocky ride for McGowan.  Selected 33^rd overall in the 2000 amateur draft, McGowan had to overcome a bout with Type-1 Diabietes, and a 2004 trip to the operating table for a Tommy John fix, before descending on the Blue Jay’s rotation last season.  His 2007 numbers were rather pedestrian- compiled over 169.2 innings- he amassed a 12-10 record, 4.08 ERA, and 1.22 WHIP.  But with a five pitch arsenal that includes a low 90’s heater, and a sick ground ball ratio, he has all the ingredients to break out in ’08.

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
At the beginning of the decade Greinke was the top rated pitching prospect in baseball.  He did great during his rookie season in 2003, but since then he’s been back and forth between the minors, the bullpen and the rotation.  At some point during this journey he developed a mid-nineties heater to compliment his pinpoint accuracy- a deadly combination.

Chap Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers
Splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation in 2007 while filling in for Jason Schmidt, Billingsley arrived a year ahead of schedule.  After posting a 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 141/64 K/BB ratio in 147 innings of work, you could say that he has already arrived.  Now he just has to prove that he can do for a whole season, he has the potential- combined with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe- to give Los Angeles one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the National League.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
His 2007 numbers were pedestrian, he pitches in Coors Field, and it seemed that he got worse as the season progressed.  So why is he on this list?  Because his stuff is nasty.  More importantly, when some of the games finest pitchers were breaking down, Jimenez proved that is worthy of our attention on the game’s biggest stage, posting a 2.25 ERA throughout the postseason.

Who are your picks?