Upton Needs to Go Back Down

Justin Upton has a ton of upside. He was the first pick in the star-studded 2005 draft and, prior to the season, you would have been hard pressed finding someone who would argue that he wasn’t its brightest prospect. We’re talking about some exclusive company here. This is a class that has already produced some of the game’s brightest young talent, including: Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others.

When Upton tore through April with a .327/.372/.554 line along with five homers and 15 RBI, no one raised an eyebrow. It was a spectacular start to what is promised to be a brilliant career. No one expected him to come crashing down, it wasn’t as if he was on some other worldly Jay Bruce-esque terror, this was exactly what Upton was going do for the next ten years. This was the same guy that came within a single of hitting for the cycle in his fifth major league game last season, so no one thought maintaining a .300 average was really asking for much.

The Diamondbacks definitely didn’t think so when they starting campaigning him as the new face of their franchise. Neither did ESPN after they plastered his face on the cover of their season preview which proclaimed him the future of the sport, at a time when he was only coming off his second minor league season in which his stats (.319/.410/.551 18 homers, 70 RBI) were good, but not spectacular.

So maybe his decline was inevitable, if not expected. Chalk it up to growing pains if you wish, but as quickly as Upton ascended up the ranks, he’s come crashing back down twice as fast. If Upton’s .216/.367/.409 line in May was rough, than the .113/.319/.226 averages he’s posted for June are ghastly. At least in May he still hit three homers and drove in 12 runs, this month he’s hit one homerun, which also accounts for his single RBI.

His only saving grace is that he’s still taking walks. He’s collected 34 of his 60 walks the last two months, which is amazing considering how badly he’s been pressing. Actually, I wouldn’t even call it pressing; Upton is being flat out being fooled every time he steps into the batter’s box. His 89 strikeouts rank fourth in the National League. In case you are in need of some perspective, since April he’s striking out every 2.8 times he comes to the plate.

Upton is supposed to be a five-tool prospect, and one day he’ll realize that, but right now he’s not hitting, his power has evaporated, his running is non-existent (he’s been caught stealing in 75% of his attempts), he isn’t driving in runs, and on top of all that, he isn’t even fielding well either, as he currently leads the league at his position with 8 errors.

It’s becoming painfully clear that Upton needs to spend some time in the minors to get a little more seasoning. He’s the second youngest player in the majors, so he isn’t going anywhere. Neither is the league. We’ve seen how good he can be, he just isn’t ready to step in the box against the likes of Johan Santana on a nightly basis. There’s nothing wrong with that, he’s young. That doesn’t make him bust, so don’t go pulling that label out just yet.

Hell, even Mickey Mantle needed to be re-assigned his first time up. Upton can go back down to the farm and still become the next Ted Williams like everyone expects him to be, that time just isn’t now.

Jay Bruce needs to go down too…

Jay Bruce may not be far behind Upton on that bus back to the minor leagues. After exceeding even the loftiest expectations his first week in the bigs by hitting .577/.667/1.038 with 3 homers and 7 RBI, his production has fallen off drastically. In the 22 games since then, he’s been hitting .191/.245/.258 with just one homer and 7 RBI. Possibly more alarming is this: in the first seven games he only struck out once while drawing six walks, in the games following the dream week he’s struck out 30 times and picked up only 7 walks.