Top 20 Pitchers Under 25

Sports Illustrated recently ran a list of the top 20 pitchers, 25 and under, and I just couldn’t believe how they ranked these players, the usual suspects were there, but the order in which they appeared was appalling.  I see these kinds of lists pop up every now and then, and each time I find something superbly wrong with their rankings.  Seriously, can we please step away from the Church of Upside for a minute and just go with what we know, please?  Anyways, I figured I’d throw my hat in the ring and try to sort out their mess, so without further ado, let’s just get right into this thing popping.

Just a few quick notes to clear up any future debates.  All players must be under the age of 26 as of July 31, 2008.  Relief pitchers were not included (besides Chamberlain who is expected to make the move into the rotation).  ‘Upside’ was used to some degree, but only as a secondary factor.  Some of these guys have all the talent in the world, but they really haven’t cut their teeth at the major league level, so it’s unfair to rank them strictly off of what they could be someday.

20.  Homer Bailey, 22
Bailey is yet to prove anything as a Major Leaguer.  Well, of course, besides that he didn’t have what it took to stick around last season, where he posted a 5.76 ERA with 28 strike outs over 45.3 innings. 

19.  Jeremy Bonderman, 25
I’m just not ready to give up Bonderman, even though I probably should.  From time to time you’ll see glimmers of what made him so special, and it’ll make you fall in love with his game all over again, but then his next start he’ll struggle again.  I thought that he finally had ‘it’ during the 2006 season when he headed into the break sporting a 3.46 ERA, then, as expected, he struggled the rest of the way posting a 4.87 ERA.  If he doesn’t take that next step this season I think it’s time to write him off as a bust.

18.  Jon Lester, 24
Coming back from cancer and pitching 5.2 scoreless innings in the World Series is the stuff that legends are made of.  Lester is a warrior; no one can ever take that from him, now he just needs to do something on the field to earn that moniker.  As much as it pains me to say this, having one good postseason start just doesn’t do it for me.  Sorry, but someone had to say it.  If I burn in hell for that, so be it, at least I can live today knowing that I didn’t hype up a guy because he did something extraordinary just by taking the ball.  I fail to see all the hype surrounding a guy that has a career 4.68 ERA.  I hope he proves me wrong, because I really admire this guy, but was he really worth losing Johan Santana over?  I doubt it.

17.  Ubaldo Jiminez, 24
With a 100-mph fastball in his arsenal it’s likely that when we revisit this list next year his name will appear somewhere in the top ten, but at this point he’s just beginning to make a name for himself.  The regular season wasn’t too kind on him (4-4, 4.28 ERA, 68 K, 37 BB), though, he put all doubts to rest with a stellar post season showing (0-1,  2.25 ERA, 13 K, 13 BB, 16 IP).

16.   Joba Chamberlain, 22
Does Chamberlain have the make-up to be one of those truly special pitchers someday?  Absolutely.  Is his stuff better than 90% of the names of this list?  Without a doubt.  Let me ask you something though, what do we really know about Chamberlain?  Sure he’s special when he pitches an inning every other day, but there is absolutely no way in the world that he will be able to go out there and just let it rip like that for six or seven innings.  That is, of course, if he doesn’t want o blow his shoulder out.  So until he becomes more than a one inning specialist, he stays here.

15.  Clay Buchholz, 23
There’s not enough words out there to describe this kids potential.  Come on, seriously, how many guys come into the league and throw a no-hitter in their second start?  My only regret is that we didn’t get to see more of him last season.

14.  Matt Garza, 23
After a rocky audition during the 2006 season, Garza finally put it all together proving that he was worthy of all the hype he received while coming up in the Twins farm system.  His 3.69 ERA was definitely impressive, now all he has to do is prove that he can keep it together for a full season.

13.  Jered Weaver, 25
Weaver doesn’t do anything that can really be considered impressive.  He strikes a few guys out, induces a few ground balls, and that’s about it.  The thing is, whatever it is that he does, he’s really good at it.  I guess you could just say that he’s extremely efficient.  I don’t really know what else to say about him, other than he’s as solid as they come.

12.  Phil Hughes, 21 
From the time the Yankees drafted this guy the league was drooling over him, and after watching last season, it became clear why.  I don’t think the 4.46 ERA he posted in his 13 starts last season is a good representation of who he really is.  Without a doubt there will be some growing pains this season, but in a few years, along with Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, he should be the ace of one of the league’s best staffs.

11.  Chad Billingsley, 23
 Billingsley forced himself on everyone’s radar after moving into the Dodgers’ rotation and posting a 3.12 ERA, but I still think this guy is terribly underrated.  Most of the guys on this list are going to be truly special, there’s a ton of talented young pitchers in the league, as you can see, but Billingsley could easily be one of the premier pitchers in the National League in a few years.

10.  Tom Gorzelanny, 25
Gorzelanny would definitely get a lot more respect if he pitched for a winning team.  His numbers are very comparable to Fausto Carmona’s, yet somehow he has managed to avoid the national spotlight.  Like Carmona, he doesn’t strike out many batters (135 in 2007), and with a better defense behind him, his 3.88 ERA would probably reside somewhere closer 3.00 line.

9.  Matt Cain, 23
I have to admit, I was one of the guys that was scratching my head after reading all the rave reviews on Cain prior to the 2006 season.  At the break he was the proud owner of a 5.12 ERA, then something clicked for him, and he never looked back after posting a 3.26 ERA during the second half.  Some of you might think I’m crazy for saying this, but right now I like him better than his more heralded rotation mate, Tim Lincecum.

8. Yovani Gallardo, 22
Ok, I admit it, I took some liberties here with the whole upside thing, forgive me, I just couldn’t help myself in this case.  Gallardo is the real deal.  Save for a poor August that saw him post a 7.55 ERA, his ERA for the season would have been well under 3.  The question for him now is whether or not he can follow up with a successful sequel.

7.  Tim Lincecum, 24
He did a solid job last season in limited action, and to tell you the truth, I was surprised that the Giants actually had the restraint to hold him under 150 innings.  Most teams would have let him lose, good thing Dusty Baker was long gone, or we’d probably be talking about how great he could have been.  All kidding aside, I expect Lincecum to post numbers similar to what Cole Hamels put up last season.  Eventually he is going to be the ace of the Giants staff, but he’s probably a year away from deserving that role.

6.  Francisco Liriano, 22
I know I gushed all over Liriano in the last article I wrote, so let me explain.  Right now, there’s no way I could justify putting Liriano on top of this list after he missed all of last season.  Though, if I were writing this article at the end of April, I’m 99% sure that’s where he’d be.  The guy is amazing, if he can come back to be 90% of what he was he’ll smoke everyone on this list.  The guy has the potential to be one of the greats.  Believe that.

5.  Felix Hernandez, 22
Speaking of potential, it’s about time that Felix cashes in on his instead of coasting on it.  The time is now.  I thought it was going to be last year after the start he had (1.56 ERA, 18 SO, 5 BB, 17.1 IP in April), then he injuries hit and he was never able to get back on track.  Either he’s going to be the ace that we all thought he was going to be, or he’s just going to be merely ‘good’.  I know he’s still only 22, but it feels like he’s been around long enough for us to raise the bar for him, even if he doesn’t want to do it himself.

4.  Cole Hamels, 24
A lot of people have Hamels pegged as the Cy Young winner this year in the National League.  I’m not one of those people, and it’s not just because he has Jake Peavy, Santana, Webb, and a gang of other talented pitchers to compete against.   He’s just not there yet.  He hasn’t even logged 200 innings yet, which really doesn’t matter, but he’s still about a year away from entering into the elite level.  He needs a little more seasoning before I feel comfortable placing him in the upper echelon.   I don’t see him fairing much better than the sixth he finished last year in voting, but I am confident that will be in there sooner rather than later.

3.  Scott Kazmir, 24
Someone please tell me why Kazmir doesn’t get any love.  Anyone?  How does a guy that posted a 3.48 ERA with 239 strikeouts in 206.7 innings not receive a single Cy Young vote?  His 10.41 K/9 was good enough for second overall, so again, someone tell me why was entirely overlooked?  Oh, because he only won 13 games… and we all know that’s the true measure of talent. 

2.  Fausto Carmona, 24
I’m going to be real interested to see how Carmona follows up his stellar 2007 season.  I’m not doubting his talent, that was on display all last year, I just don’t see that same brilliancein his numbers prior to the 2007 season.  Can he match last year’s performance (19-8, 3.06 ERA, 137 K, 61 BB)?  Can he hold up another year with such a heavy workload (215 IP)?  It’ll be interesting to see.

1.  Justin Verlander, 25 
The ace of the bunch.  No other pitcher on the list has been as consistent as Verlander the last two years.  I had to go with proven commodity.  With Johan Santana out of the American League it’s his time to slide into that elite level and compete for the hardware.  Pitching for the Tigers doesn’t hurt either, with that offense behind him he’ll rack up the ever important win, which could fuel his Cy Young campaign.