The Santana Effect

Move over Derek Jeter, it looks like New York has a new Frank White.  This is a very bitter, or sweet, day for those living in five boroughs.  For decades the Mets have been the cute little brother running around the city, enjoying marginal success here and there, and as long as they played their role, it was fine.  That’s what has allowed the Mets and Yankees to survive in the same environment for so long.  It’s not that they don’t want to succeed, they just haven’t.  The last time they had the juice was in 1986 when they won the World Series, but that team was quickly dismantled by drugs and bad decisions, they’ve been trying to steal it back since.

They’ve been close several times, but in New York, success is measured with rings, not wins and awards.  It looks like they might finally have found it after 21 tumultuous years, by beating out all comers, including the Yankees, for the rights to Johan Santana.  Now all they have to do is lock him into a long term contract, or else this will all be a big waste of time, and could possible damage the morale of this franchise for the foreseeable future, but that’s all for a later day.  At least for now, for one day, baseball doesn’t live in the Bronx.

Several years from now this might end up proving to be one of the most important trades of all time.  The impact can already be felt in several areas.  If you don’t think there are shockwaves being felt throughout the country, you’re mistaken. 

Open up the Philadelphia Inquirer and to the front page of the sports section you’ll be met with this passage:

“New York Mets fans suffered through a depression last year after their beloved team became the first in baseball history to blow a seven-game lead with 17 games to play.  The Mets choked.  The Phillies took advantage.  Santana is arguably the most dominate pitcher in the game, and the dreaded Mets now have him.  But the Phillies, who are the defending NL East champions, aren’t about to concede anything.”

Obviously, the Phillies are worried, and why shouldn’t they be?  All things considered, they were extremely lucky to get into the playoffs last season.  While they have a plethora of young talent that would make any general manager jealous, they had little to do with the Mets colossal collapse, which ultimately led to them backing into the postseason.  Instead of aggressively seeking some help to make sure that they could thwart off New York again next season, the Phillies failed to make an impact transaction.

 “He’s definitely a great pitcher, but this is still a team game,” said Phillies righthander Brett Myers. “One guy gives you nine innings a game, and absolutely he can win that game.  What happens the other two or three days?  Everybody on the team has to produce.  One guy can’t win three or four games in a series.  That’s just how I feel.  It’s a team game, ultimately.”

Myers has a point, it is a team game, but what he’s failing to realize is something that I stated in yesterday’s article.  Simply put, the Mets rotation is stacked now, so I’m not too sure where these huge holes exist that Myers is referring too.  I’m assuming they’re rotation will consist of Santana (3.33 ERA, 235K), Pedro Martinez (4.48, 137K [2006 numbers]), John Maine (3.91 ERA, 180K), Oliver Perez (3.56 ERA, 174K), and Orlando Hernandez (3.72ERA, 128K), which would give them a rotation that posted a collective ERA of 3.75 with 8.87 K/9IP ratio last season.

I’m pretty sure we’ve all accepted the fact that Pedro is never going to able to pitch like it’s 2004, but he’ll definitely do a lot better than those 2006 numbers.  I have him projected somewhere around 4.00 at the very worst. 

Then there’s the grossly obvious in Santana’s case, he’s coming over to a far easier league, in a pitchers park, with a better offense.  He has everything working in his favor.  I’m not going to go as far as Bill Simmons, and say that Santana’s ERA is going to be sub 2.00, but it should be somewhere in the low 3’s.

“If the world remains anything like it seemed when I was a boy, a lot of 10-year-olds were crying into their Count Chocula Wednesday morning.  Two days after TwinsFest plucked the heartstrings of every Little Leaguer who dreams of wearing a “TC” on his cap, the Minnesota Twins threw a high hard one at their heads.  ”
-Nick Coleman, Minnesota Star Tribune

On the other front, either Bill Smith is the stupidest general manager of all time, or Omar Minaya is its greatest.  This could arguably be the worst trade of all time.  How do you have today’s version of Sandy Koufax and not get one major league ready player?  I’m assuming there was some type of discount involved to get him out of the American League, but how much does that matter when you aren’t going to be playing for anything anytime soon?

“The Mets became Giants yesterday.  Like Eli Manning and his teammates, the Mets have altered their perception by doing what not that long ago seemed impossible.  They turned a group of prospects that hardly electrify baseball into the best pitcher in the world.  That makes beating the Cowboys in Dallas or the Packers in the chill of Lambeau look as difficult as putting a ball on a tee.  Heck, it makes beating the 18-0 Patriots appear simple by comparison.”
-Joel Sherman, The New York Post

I’d be disgusted if I was a Minnesota fan right now.  How do you not at least land Mike Pelfrey in this deal?  By all accounts, the four prospects involved were ranked somewhere between 3-10 in the Mets farm system.  I have a feeling that Bill Smith is going to be fired very soon.

This could be Carl Polad’s fault too, you never know, he could have been calling the shots behind closed doors.  They never should have played hardball with the Yankees and Red Sox during the winter meetings.  They could of have watched either Phil Hughes or Clay Buccholz/Jon Lester march out to the mound every fifth day, with the hope that someday they would develop into something special.  Instead, they fleeced their fans out of watching the best left-handed pitcher in the game without hope for a better tomorrow, but not before he fleeced them into paying for a new stadium.  At least they still have Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young to look forward too, you know, once they pluck the fleece out of their eyes.

“Hank and Hal Steinbrenner, George’s sons – who, a year ago at this time, had virtually nothing to do with Major League Baseball – unwittingly engineered a bait-and-switch that concluded with one of the most glorious moments in the Mets’ history.”
-Ken Davidoff, Newsday

I hate to bring the Yankees into this, but their pride has to be hurt.  They got got. The Red Sox basically blocked them from getting the player they desperately need, and then they watch as he marches off to their cross town rival at a significantly cheaper price.  How does that happen? 

Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman either made a really smart move by pulling out of this early, or it could have cost them the season.  At 29, Santana still has several good years ahead of him, by the time he’s in his decline, Hughes will be entering his prime.  So the effects of this non-move won’t come to fruition for a while, but, on paper, strictly due to inexperience, it looks as if their rotation could cost them a trip to the playoffs.

Wang is hardly an adequate number one pitcher.  He wins games, but so what?  With the 3.70 ERA, and the four strikeouts per nine innings he posted last season, he can hardly be considered an ace.  Mike Mussina looks like he’s done, and who knows what to expect with Andy Pettitte.  This leaves them with Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, to round things out.  It’s so uncertain that it has been suggested that they will go with a six man rotation to limit the mileage that goes on these young arms.

Hughes and Chamberlain were impressive last season in limited action, but it’s doubtful they will enjoy the same success over the span of 162 games. There’s no way that Chamberlain’s numbers out of the bullpen will equate to same level of dominance as a starter.  It’s a lot easier to strike out the side when you take the mound for an inning every other night.  Seeing a guy twice in the same series, three nights apart, is a lot different than seeing a guy twice, three innings apart.

They are the Yankees though, and as we all have learned, success always sits around the corner for them, right next to a giant sack of money.  This, I’m guessing, is what they are waiting for right now.  With a lot of their big names coming off the books next winter they’ll be primed to make a move for a few big free agents, too bad Miguel Cabrera is off the shelf now, with Santana right behind him, so that leaves CC Sabathia as the big prize for now.

The games still have to be played, and a lot can happen between now and then, but for the time being, Johan and the Mets are the Kings of New York.