The New Face of the Arms Race

Wow, wow, wow.  Stop the presses.  I never even considered the possibility that Dan Haren’s name would be getting shopped around this off-season.  Like everyone else I figured these talks were a year away, but it looks like Billy Beane is ready to cash in his chips while the iron’s hot.  This changes everything.  All of the sudden Johan Santana might not be the most attractive option on the market.  I just have one question though, why are the A’s trying to trade this guy now?  

 After the season he just had it was obvious that Haren would eventually have to be traded before he priced out of their market, the same way Santana has pitched his way out of Minnesota, there is just one little difference though.   Haren, who is set to make $4 million in 2008, $5.5 in ’09, and he has a $6.75 million option for ’10, is being grossly underpaid for his services.  He’s the consummate Billy Beane guy, down to the way he acquired him.  Yet, he’s being shopped around the league.  I don’t get it.  It’s puzzling.  Do they know something we don’t?  It can’t be because of his salary.  This is the same team that paid Jason Kendall, Mike Piazza, and Mark Kotsay a combined $30 million last season.  You’d think they’d be able to shake an extra $2 million out of their couch to pay Haren. 

The organization claims that they “are committed to rebuilding.”  Ok, that would be understandable if the A’s weren’t constantly rebuilding.  When was the last time they had a stable roster?  My guess would be around 1992 when they still had Dennis Eckersly and the Bash Brothers were the deadliest 1-2 punch in baseball. 

Never-the-less this announcement might cause some teams to re-arrange their Christmas wish-list.  If you’re shopping on a budget, or just want to get more bang for your buck, then Haren is the way to go if you are in the market for an ace.  You don’t have to empty out your stables, he’s signed for the fore-seeable future, and he offers you the financial flexibility to address other needs. 

With Santana you’re getting a pitcher at the end of his contract, meaning that after you trade away your future he could just turn around and walk out the door.  If he does decide to stay it will be for $150 million for six years. That doesn’t give you much wiggle room to make any other moves.  God-forbid he we’re to get injured, you’d never be able to get out from under that contract.

That’s not to say that Haren comes free of liabilities, his are just minimized due to the fact that he is signed for only two years, and, well, he’s cheap.  The truth is you don’t know what you’re getting with him.  Is he the guy the bonafide ace that went 10-3 during the first half of the season with a 2.30 ERA?  Or was the 5-6 record and 4.15 ERA he put up during the second half a more accurate reflection of his skill level?  Yet, despite faltering during the second half, his numbers were still stellar. When juxtaposed to his second half totals that 2.30 looses some of its luster, but his overall ERA of 3.07 is still stellar. Then pair that up with his 15-9 record, 192 strikeouts and 55 walks through 222 2/3 innings and all of the sudden he’s in the same pool as Santana.  In case you need a refresher, Johan ended up with a 15-13 record, a 3.33 ERA, 235 strikeouts and 52 walks in 219 innings. 

The difference in talent might not be as large as you think.  Still, even with Haren on the market now, there’s no doubting who the top dog is in the arms race. But for those that don’t want to give up everything they have on the farm to improve a little now, Haren provides a very attractive option at a fraction of the cost.  It’s hard to know if he overachieved or not, but right now the only major difference in their numbers is on the price tag. 

The Mets, once considered one of the major players in the Santana sweepstakes, have shifted their focus and are now heavily pursuing Haren.  This is where Beane’s genius comes in.  In the past he has waited until free agency was looming to begin entertaining offers for his star players, but this time all the chips are on his side of the table.  He knows that there’s a possibility that Santana and CC Sabathia could be on the open market next offseason, which means that Haren wouldn’t be as heavily pursued.  The market couldn’t be riper, if he has to go he my-as-well get someone to overpay while he can.

It might not be the most attractive move from a competitive standpoint, which is why I don’t really understand or agree with it, but it’s the right business move.  Last year when they were in talks with the Mets for a deal involving Rich Harden, Omar Minaya walked away when Beane demanded a package that included Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman.  This time around those names will just be appetizers.  John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, or Kevin Mulvey could also figure into the discussions.  In other words, any and every prospect they have that is worth anything will be involved in these discussions.

It would probably only take a combination of three of those guys, but it’s still cheaper than dealing for Santana. Minaya is also actively pursuing another A’s pitcher, Joe Blanton, who is also believed to be available.  Beane isn’t thrilled about the possibility of going to arbitration with Blanton since he doesn’t figure to be in their long-term plans, so a package deal involving both pitchers isn’t out of the question.  It would take a haul of prospects to get this deal done, but this might be the Met’s best option to address their present needs, although it could take everyone on that short list to get it done.   I couldn’t see them dealing Maine for another pitcher, but sometimes you have to give up a little to get a little, and Haren would have to be considered an upgrade in this scenario.

With such a shallow free agent class it’s only going to get crazier.  Now that the Twins have dealt Matt Garza to the Devil Rays for Delmon Young there’s no guarantee that Santana will be available.  This could just be a prelude to bigger impending move, or it could be a sign that they are dedicated to winning now, you never know.  Everyone is holding out to see what happens with that situation and it may not happen.  The Mets, or whoever else, might just be better suited to make a move now before they miss the boat.