The Cubs Just Might Do it This Year

“The Cubs have failure and calamity sewn into the organization as tightly as the red stitching on a baseball. But for the home opener a certain level of irrational exuberance is tolerated, even encouraged. Loyalists are lining up outside the portals of Wrigley at 9:30 in the morning even though game time is 3 hours and 50 minutes away and they can’t get in yet. The main concourse has been scrubbed clean of its persistent beery stench - the one that so nicely captured the essence of going 99 years without winning a World Series.”

The essence of the Chicago Cubs may have never been captured more eloquently than it was in those four sentences penned by Buzz Bissinger.

Unfortunately, he was ahead of his time with this diagnosis. The passage was wrote last June, since then that beery stench has had a little more than a year to ferment, and the everlasting adage, “Maybe next year,” has been granted another year of clemency on the North Side, although it’s reign as the cliché of choice in Chicago could quickly be coming to an end.

Ironically enough, it comes at a time when the team’s foundation couldn’t be in more dire straits. The historical landmark that the Cubs call home, Wrigley Field, is in serious jeopardy of having its trademark ivy stripped from the walls in favor of the ubiquitous advertisements that litter the outfields of the rest of the ballparks in America. Their ownership group is actively shopping the club to the highest bidder, but, in their defense, they’ve continued to actively pursue free agents in an attempt to procure the ever evasive championship. With the help of a $300 million dollar spending spree that netted them Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Mark DeRose, Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly last winter, and the signing of Kosuke Fukudome this winter, along with a healthy Kerry Wood, the Cubs have jockeyed themselves in a favorable position to capture their first World Title in a century.

There’s no doubting their talent, top to bottom, they may be the most able bodied team in the National League, as they have proved with their early assault on National League foes. The only question now is if they have what it takes to sustain.

Ideally, for a club to get into the playoffs they have to have great health, a great rotation, but most importantly, great luck. They have to have what it takes to grind out those close games during the dog days of August, they have to be able to capture those one run games, as the Angles have, and the Dimondbacks did last season, Pythagorean be damned.

So far the Cubs have played up to their potential, as proved by the one game difference between their actual record and their Pythagorean record. The only discrepancy with their Major League leading 49-33 record is that they are 18-21 in two run games, which at this point is nitpicking, but they certainly could improve in this area. The Cardinals, on the other hand are 20-19 in those same games, which, ultimately, could prove to be the difference between a trip to the playoffs and watching from home.

As a whole, their pitching has been stellar where they rank first in wins, last in losses, second in saves, and fourth in strikeouts and ERA. Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano have proved to be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, and Ted Lilly is starting to come around after posting a 3.21 ERA and a 3-1 record in June. Even the 22 year-old Sean Gallagher has been solid while filling in for the troubled Rich Hill, who, seemingly, lost the ability to spot the ball early on this year.

As good as the starters have been the true difference maker for this team has been their bullpen. Just last year it appeared as though Kerry Wood’s career was over. Once the heir apparent to other great Texans such as Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens, Wood appeared to be forever relegated to a cautionary story of how not to handle pitchers after spending the better part of nine years on the disabled list recovering from a laundry list of injuries including: a torn labrum, a torn rotator cuff, and a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Fast forward a year, and suddenly he is back in the saddle as one of the game’s premier, and most dominate, closers. His 20 saves currently rank third in the NL, and his 2.50 ERA isn’t too shabby either. Also, with Carlos Marmol, Michael Wuertz and Jon Liber dominating, all the starters have to do is preserve a lead long enough for these guys to take over and it’s lights out.

Then there’s the offense which ranks first in average, OBP, slugging, walks, hits, and runs, second in doubles, and fourth in home runs. In other words, there isn’t really a weak spot in this entire line-up. Geovany Soto is quickly emerging as one of the game’s premier sluggers, as a catcher no-less, and has already amassed 13 homers and 47 RBI. Derrek Lee has re-invented himself at the age of 32 after a season in which it looked as though he’d lost the ability to be an effective power hitter. Aramis Ramirez is piecing together one of his finest seasons, Mark DeRosa is on a terror, and on the list goes. Even Jim Edmonds has turned it around and is currently hitting .302 after batting an embarrassing .178 with the Padres, after being cut and left for dead 26 games into the season.

From the looks of it, with the game’s biggest run differential, and best record, along with a recent 14 game home winning streak, the Cubs should be primed to participate in their first World Series since 1945, right?

Well, maybe, but for everything they have working for them, Murphy’s Law has been working overtime to keep this club grounded, and possibly out of the playoffs altogether. First there are the injuries; Alfonso Soriano is on his second trip to the DL, and even though the club has done well to circumvent a collapse without their catalyst both times, it’s going to be hard for them to continue to do so. His first trip they went 9-6 without him, this time, in large part to also being without Carlos Zambrano, they are 7-9, and he could be out for another three weeks. Zambrano is set to pitch against the Cardinals on July 4.

The biggest red flag is certainly found in their split stats, where they are 33-10 at home, and 16-23 on the road. Away from Wrigley their team ERA jumps from 3.64 to 4.20, and their batting averages dip from .311/.391/.500 to .256/.331/.386, which is cause for alarm. The good news is that if the season were to end today they’d have home field advantage throughout the playoffs; the bad news is that if they don’t step it up on the road, they may not get there.

But, say what you will about their health, or lack-there-of, overcoming adversity is what it’s all about. The teams that can conquer their demons prosper, while those that can’t- well, they don’t. For the first time Cubs fans, who largely identify themselves with losing and the ivy walls, and little else, actually feel like they can win. This mindset shouldn’t have an adverse affect on the players, but it does. When everyone thinks you can’t win, a lot of times, you don’t.

The Red Sox did it-twice, the White Sox did it, so why not the Cubs? They’ve never looked better, they’re doing everything right, and for the first time in a long while, they have guys that know how to win. Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Alfonso Soriano, and Derrek Lee have all won rings. This team has an average age of 30.1 and 12 of their players have more than 10 years of experience, so it may be now or never, but for the first time in a long while, now doesn’t seem so preposterous.