The American League Fearless Forecast

There’s snow on the ground and it’s below the freezing point in most East Coast cities, so that can mean only one thing:  Spring Training is here!  With the games getting underway it’s time to start taking a look at what’s to come.  Who’s going to win it all, who will win the Cy Young, what team is everyone sleeping on?  We answer these questions and more in our American League Preview.

Best Record- Cleveland
The Natural inclination here is to go with the Tigers, and it’s going to be close, but I just don’t think they have the pitching to get it done.  Losing Joel Zumaya until the break killed them, which puts the pressure on Fernando Rodney to bolster a bullpen that struggled.  They have the line-up to just completely batter mediocre pitching, but any team with Todd Jones as their anchor man has problems.  Cleveland, on the other hand has the starters, a solid offense that should feature an improved Travis Hafner, and a stronger bullpen.  The Central race is going to be tight, like NL West tight, but I see Detroit picking up about 91 wins while Cleveland tops them with 96.  For all this to happen though they need to figure out what is going on in their outfield.  Last season they got only 151 RBI from their corner spots, while Detroit picked up 255. 

Worst Record- Baltimore
There’s going to be some tight competition here too, but I think the Orioles win this race by a landslide.  They are just, well… aw hell, they just are completely awful.  Like AAA bad.  Nick Markakis has some game, but who else is there?  They got a nice haul for Erik Bedard, I’ll admit that, although it will be some time before they see a return on that move.

Sleeper- Seattle
I’ve been pretty high on them all offseason, so it should come as no as surprise that I have Seattle in this spot.  They overachieved a little bit last season, I’ll admit that much, but this squad still managed to win 88 games and finish six back, and that was without Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva.  With these guys on their side they should at least win 88-90 games.  Should.  A lot is going to have to go right for them.  First and foremost, the burning issue for this club is whether or not Richie Sexson bounces back from an atrocious 2007 season.  It’s not going to be easy, and at this point there’s not much reason to hold out hope.  He’s coming off a season that saw him post a league worst.187 average with runners in scoring position, and a career low 63 RBI.  If they are going to overcome the loss of Jose Guillen, Sexson must step up.  It also wouldn’t hurt if Los Angeles slips or suffers a couple injuries, in which case the Mariners could very easily sneak into the playoffs and cause some damage with the one-two punch of Bedard and Felix Hernandez.

Best ERA-  Boston
Losing Curt Schilling hurt. He’s still a capable innings eater when he’s healthy, so for Boston to retain this title, Daisuke is going to have to start earning his paycheck.  He was 2-4 with a 7.14 ERA in his final eight starts last season, which raises serious questions about (what was supposed to be his legendary) stamina.  This also creates a hole at the end of the rotation, so Clay Buccholz is going to have to be ready by opening day.  Their bullpen is still tough though.  Should I have just picked Cleveland?

Best Offense- Detroit
Is there any question here?  Detroit could easily score 1,000 runs.  In fact, I expect them win all of the Triple Crown categories.  Last year they finished with a .287 team average, 3 points off the Yankees’ league leading mark, of course that was pre- Cabrera, Renteria, and Jacque Jones.  200 homers should do just fine, and I have no doubt they’ll smoke the field in RBI.

Playoff Picture

AL East- Boston
The Red Sox should secure this title without much resistance from their counterparts.  New York just doesn’t have it this year.  Their pitching is totally unproven and they still don’t have a first baseman.  With all that money you’d think they’d have an answer.  Shelly Duncan looks to be the man even though he can’t hit righties, or Jason Giambi could suit up if it doesn’t work out with Duncan.

AL Central- Cleveland
Like I said before, this will be the tightest race in the American League, but pitching prevails, which is why Cleveland is the choice.  It doesn’t hurt that they’ll have Fausto Carmona all year, who combined with C.C. Sabathia for a combined league best 3.14 ERA.

AL West- Los Angeles
Oakland and Texas are just awful, but it isn’t as one sided as you think.  Seattle is going to be a factor but they need more pop before they can be taken serious.  So, for now, LA remains the pick.

Wildcard- Detroit 
You can’t keep that offense down.

Champs- Cleveland

Awards

Cy Young- Erick Bedard
He easily could have won it if a strained sternum wouldn’t have sidelined him down the stretch last season.  Now, with Johan Santana out of the league, it shouldn’t be a problem.  Unless, of course, he doesn’t get enough wins to satisfy the voters. 

MVP- Miguel Cabrera
No, I’m not trying to go against the norm to get everyone fired up, I just don’t think that A-Rod is going to put up numbers like he did last season.  I hope he does, I really do, but with all the steroid crap surrounding him, he might melt down.  We all know he has trouble ignoring the media.  Maybe I’m thinking too much into this, but Miggy is going to hit .300/30/?.  His RBI total could be absolutely insane in that lineup, and being the centerpiece of what is going to be the biggest story of the year doesn’t hurt either.

Rookie of the Year- Evan Longoria
The scouting report on Longoria screams greatness; it’s just a matter of when he will be ready to produce.  He has 30 homerun potential and everyone says he can hit .300 in the majors eventually. Everyone is expecting him to be Ryan Braun 2.0, and this crowd may end up severly disappointed.  He chases pitches, and needs to become more patient at the plate, but unlike Braun, he can play defense.  Which is a major plus for him.  He’s got stiff competition in Jacoby Ellsbury, but it is going to be impossible for him to live up to the expectations he set for himself by hitting .361 down the stretch, along with his postseason performance.  People are expecting him to be number 9, but it’s not going to happen.  Not now, not ever, he’ll be good, just not that good.