Should the Twins Deal Santana?

This situation isn’t unique to Bill Smith.  It’s just the latest episode of disparity in baseball’s financial system.  Far too often general managers have to make decisions regarding the organization’s future in fear of being left at the alter empty handed when their top free agents leave town.  The Twins don’t want to trade Johan Santana, but what other choice do they have?  We’re not talking about a player that is good, this is a once in a lifetime talent that could mean everything to whoever he suits up for next season, including the Twins. 

A lot of people have already began to write the Twin’s eulogy since Torii Hunter decided to bolt for the bright lights and big money that can only be found in a larger market.  Of course this is a devastating blow, but it is far from crippling. This team has a strong nucleus that includes the 2006 AL MVP, Justin Morneau, but the true power lies within their starting rotation, which was missing their brightest star last season, Francisco Liriano.

The shortsightedness that has been displayed within this organization amazes me.  Don’t they realize what they have?  Offensively they are not the Red Sox, but neither were the Indians and they pitched their way into the ALCS.  With a rotation headlined by Santana and Liriano this team could also make a similar run.  I understand that their lack of resources requires them to take certain precautions while assembling their roster, but whatever happened to playing for now?  Sometimes you have to put these issues on the backburner and just go for it.  They have a chance to be really good, is it worth giving up that shot for a couple more competitive years?  Letting Santana just walk away could hinder their development, but sometimes you have to take that chance.  I honestly believe that if this team can make it out of the ultra-competitive AL Central they could win it all. 

If CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona wouldn’t have broken down during the ALCS Cleveland could have easily won the World Series.   That’s not to take anything away from the Red Sox, they have a talented team that could easily win five of the next five World Series, but in a short series pitching is king, and no one is richer than Minnesota.  Santana and Liriano could very well finish 1-2 in Cy Young voting next season.  Don’t believe me?  Let’s take a look at their July 28, 2006, the last time Liriano took the mound with a healthy elbow.

It was clear at this point that Liriano was out performing Santana, but it’s only fair to point out that Santana went on an absolute terror during the second half of the season to capture his third Cy Young Award and the Triple Crown.  If Liriano would have stayed healthy he very well could have outperformed him the rest of the way, or he might have hit the rookie wall and fell off.  It’s hard to know, but I am intrigued by his early results. 

Another factor that should be at the forefront of this discussion is that Liriano is coming back from Tommy John Surgery, which could hinder his progress, but it’s unlikely that will happen.  This procedure is hardly a death sentence anymore and, in fact, many people use it as a strategy to improve performance.   Even though my money is on him coming back like nothing happened, you still have to consider the possibilities.  Even with a success operation a lot things could go wrong in the aftermath.   The team could tinker with his delivery and ruin him, or his psyche could be all screwed up, you never know.

That’s exactly why Minnesota should put this thing on the backburner until the July 31 trading deadline.  It’s going to happen either way, but don’t they owe it to their fans to play the wait and see approach?  The market isn’t going to disappear; we’re talking about the best pitcher in baseball here, not some one year wonder that might fizzle out.  Even if Santana were to end up that same operating table, teams would still be lining up around the block with a mixed bag of top prospects.   That’s how good he is. 

They should at least let him stick around long enough to be in prime position to make a playoff push.  The July 31^st trading deadline would probably be the best time to make the deal anyways, and then you always have the option of riding this thing out if the situation looks right.  Teams will be a lot more desperate, you have time to scout the prospects you are targeting, and you have a better idea of what your team needs.  Matt Garza and Boof Bonser have both been up and down as pitchers, in this scenario you have few more months to decide if they are the future or just a stop gap.  It’s win-win all the way around. 

Crazier things have happened, so it’s not that far fetched to think that maybe Santana would reconsider and sign for a discount, especially if he gets a taste of success.  Sure, the Twins have been to the dance before, but never as the front runners.  He has said several times that he would like to stay in Minnesota, stating “I’m in no hurry.  At the same time, I think the sooner the better – and the cheaper it will be.”  Of course this was nearly six months ago, and the Twins refused to come off their ‘in-season negotiation’ policy, so their chances are looking grim at best.  Still they can dream. 

Realistically, his future is elsewhere.  He’s set to receive a $13.25 million next season in base salary, with the possibility of earning up to $500,000 in bonuses.  This is probably all the Twins can afford.  Many believe that Santana will be the first $200 million pitcher, a figure foreign to those in St. Paul.

Regardless, the Twins owe it to their fans to keep him around until the last minute.  Do yourself and fans a favor by letting him have his farewell tour.