Should the Phils Deal Howard?

An interesting proposition is floating around the baseball world involving the future of Ryan Howard.  Just two years ago it looked as though he was going to be the heir apparent, or quite possibly the man that knocked Albert Pujols off the pedestal as baseball’s premier first basemen.  He struck out quite a bit during his MVP campaign, yet he managed to post a .425 OBP, indicating that with a little discipline, he very well could capture a Triple Crown sometime during his prime years.  The kid was only 26, in his second season, the world was his oyster.

A lot has changed since then.  Howard’s power is legit.  We always knew that though.  What’s surprising is that no one ever forecasted his demise.  The 215 walks he took over the last two years, placing him in the top five in consecutive seasons, would suggest that he has ability to see the ball better than anyone, and that he has the patience and selectivity to be among the game’s elite hitters.   That is, of course, if you isolate those figures.  When juxtaposed to his strikeout totals, the numbers become meaningless, especially when you realize that his strikeout to walk ratio is dangerously close to 2:1.  Last season, by tallying 199 K’s, he became the game’s all-time-single-season-strikeout-leader, an honor he surely would like to give back. 

This friction has come to define his career since his brilliant 2006 season.  It’s the reason that baseball pundits have suggested that the Phillies should strike while the iron is hot and deal him before the deadline, and personally, I do not disagree.

I wouldn’t go as far as calling Howard a one year wonder.  He’ll forever be one of the games preeminent sluggers as long as his body co-operates, but as far as Cardinals sluggers are concerned, he’ll be more Mark McGwire than Albert Pujols.  There’s nothing wrong with that, McGwire was invaluable to Saint Louis, but judging from how the Phillies handled Howard’s arbitration case this spring, it doesn’t appear that they want to pay a one dimensional player five-tool money.

It no longer appears that there is anything especially spectacular about Howard outside of his power.  Howard is currently hitting .163/.286/.333 with 6 homers, 16 RBI, 22 walks, and a staggering 50 strikeouts.  Putting him on pace to whiff an astounding 231 times.  Whether or not he actually touches that figure is yet to be seen, but the fact that it doesn’t seem ridiculous is a commentary in itself. 

I wish I could say that this is a case of April Showers and that he will soon blossom, but it’s not.  In a recent interview Howard stated that he has always been a slow starter, and history would support this claim, but I’m not buying it.  His career splits show that April is his worst month, although those figures are heavily skewed by the small sample size.  Last season it was his worst month, but in 2006, in terms of average, it was his best before the break.  This season, May has been even worst.  Through the Phillies first seven games of the new calendar, Howard has hit .125/.241/.292 with 12 strikeouts and only four walks. 

If the Phillies don’t have him in their future plans, they should seriously consider dumping him this season before his stock plummets.  He just won the largest arbitration case in history for a player in his class, at $10 million a year.  Even though he’s struggling, his salary will likely inflate over the next two seasons, at which point he will likely walk, leaving the Phillies with a pair of draft picks.

If you’re the Phillies, if this guy continues to put up numbers like he did last season is he even going to be worth his paycheck?  They already have a pair of superstars in Chase Utley, who is quickly becoming a top five player, and Jimmy Rollins, last year’s MVP.  Replacing Howard wouldn’t prove to be a daunting task.  With the market starved for sluggers, they could easily get a pair of blue chip prospects at the deadline and still compete with what they got.

Don’t misconsture the sentiments of this piece.  I’m not saying that the Phillies should trade Howard simply because he is struggling.  One could even say that he is just there to hit home runs and drive in runs, which he does as well as anyone.  He’s just the wrong horse to back now.  The future is with Rollins and Utley, they can get stronger by dealing Howard and addressing other weak areas.

It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.  They definitely need some pitching, and with a guy capable of hitting 40-50 homers every summer, they could get a couple young arms that could shore up the rotation for the foreseeable future.