Should Phillips Hit Fourth

When I look at what Dusty Baker has accomplished in this game, sometimes I wonder if the bad wrap he gets is unwarranted. His teams win. He’s taken several of them to the playoffs, where he led the Giants to the World Series in 2002, and had the Cubs a few outs away in 2003. His .527 lifetime winning percentage ranks him only behind Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, and Joe Torre, but ahead of every other manager in the game. He’s a three-time National League Manager of the Year award winner.

Clearly this man is qualified to do his job. Yet, there may not be a more scrutinized man alive. Why? Because he makes it easy, if you listen to him speak baseball, or even better, watch him do his job, it’s not hard to see why he’s such an easy target.

He’s famous for saying inane things, like how he hates slow footed sluggers that “clog the bases” by taking walks. Quotes such as these have sent the sabrmetric guru’s off the deep end, and while I’m not a big advocate of some of the methods they use, on-base percentage doesn’t fall under this umbrella. Anyone that doesn’t see the value in taking a walk as opposed to -say- striking out doesn’t really belong in the game.

“I’m big on driving in runs and scoring runs,” Baker explains. “Guys in the middle should score about close to equal what they drive in. On-base percentage, that’s fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It’s becoming a little bit out of control.”

What Baker fails to realize that having a man on base puts his team is in a better position to manufacture a run. He loses an opportunity If the hitter strikes out. It’s better to walk than strike out. It seems like a moot point to explain, but apparently, for some people, it’s necessary.

The most recent beef with Baker is for how he fills out his line-up card. Particularly for batting Brandon Phillips clean-up. This isn’t anything new, last season Phillips filled the void by taking his cuts from the four-hole after being called upon to do so by former manager Jerry Narron, even though he only had two previous career appearances there.

You’d think that Baker would favor a more prototypical player to bat clean-up, but then again, considering that Phillips hit 30 homers with 94 RBI from the spot last season, despite his lack of size, it actually makes perfect sense. It also allows Baker to implement his lefty-righty line-up, since he can slot Phillips right handed bat between Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn. So it’s easy to see why Baker has followed Narron’s lead, he hit a lot of homers, and drove in runs, so why fix what’s not broken?

The problem is, it’s horribly broken, Baker is just too old school to realize. You can’t expect a man that doesn’t understand OBP to look beyond back of a baseball card for proof. If he had, he’d realize that Phillips is miserably miscast. According to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Donovan, last year, as a clean-up hitter, Phillips posted one of the lowest slugging percentages (.493) and one of the worst OBP’s (.352) in all of baseball. If that isn’t bad enough, Phillips only converted 13% of his chances with runners in scoring position, placing him in the bottom half of all hitters in the league.

If that isn’t enough, last season in 650 plate appearances, Phillips walked only 33 times, placing him among the worst in baseball among hitters with that many appearances. This season he already has walked 21times but, in large part to a .264 BA, his OBP is way down to .313. Surprisingly, Baker is aware of Phillips inability to get on base, and is encouraging him to take more walks since he is an effective base stealer (Phillips is 13-16 in stolen base attempts this season). But, of course, he would much rather have him swing his bat.

“If you’re supposed to be up there driving in runs… a run producer, he ain’t up there to get his on-base percentage up. He’s in there to drive in runs,” says Baker. “If you’re passing it on to the next hitter, a lot of times, he’s not as good of a hitter as you. Otherwise he’d be hitting ahead of you.”

Some people would argue that the line-up doesn’t really matter, which is Baker’s only saving grace here, but I don’t subscribe to this school of thought. Penciling Phillips in at clean-up doesn’t exactly hurt the team, but it also doesn’t utilize all of his assets properly.

Ideally, with his speed, Phillips would be batting second, with some combination of Bruce, Griffey, and Dunn behind him. This would allow him to utilize his skills as a base runner, and with some bigger bats behind him, he’d also score more runs. In a perfect world Jay Bruce would also move out the lead-off spot where his natural gifts are also being handcuffed, but right now the Reds don’t have anyone with the tools to suffice as a table setter. Once Bruce can slide down, and they find a serviceable replacement at the top of the order, they should be able to generate some more runs. The key to winning is still scoring runs, right?

Someone send Dusty a memo.