An Early Look at the 2008 NL MVP Race

MVP ballots were sent out earlier this week, so keeping with yesterday’s theme, let’s shift our focus and take an early look at the National League race. We all know how murky things are in the AL, and it’s not any more lucid over here, but this time it’s not due to a lack of candidates.

Chase Utley

Utley seemed like a lock for this award on June 2, when he was hitting .320/.403/.680 with 21 homers and 57 RBI. Unfortunately his numbers (.261/.338/.452, 7 HR, 25 RBI) have been rather pedestrian since then, which has given the rest of the pack adequate time to catch up. Although, even with his sagging slash stats, the rest of his numbers could be good enough to make him the third Phillies player in as many years to capture the award, but he’s going to have to pick it up over the last two months of the season to get there. Not only do his MVP hopes reside on it, so do the Phillies playoff bid.

Albert Pujols

Last year was the first time in Albert Pujols’ illustrious career that he didn’t finish in the top five, but his early numbers almost ensure that the drought won’t carry on for another year. It’s a scary thought for the rest of the league, but it looks as though Pujols, 28, has evolved as a hitter and is entering the prime of his career. He currently ranks third in batting average (.345, one point behind Matt Holliday), second in on-base percentage (.455), and second in slugging (.602). His power numbers are slightly down (22 homers, 69 RBI) due to the amount of walks he’s taken (73, 27 of which are intentional, pacing him 13 ahead of all comers), but without Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds protecting him pitchers aren’t allowing Pujols to beat them. Now, just imagine what the guy could do if he had a healthy shoulder.

David Wright

Ahh, the man that should be the defending MVP, and whom I declared my preseason pick to take the hardware this year. Wright isn’t having a bad season (.284/.383/.495, 20 homers, 85 RBI), although, it pales in comparison to the one he handed in last season (.325/.416/.546, 30 homers and 107). That could all change over the last two months of the season. It’s no surprise that as the Mets starting surging last month, as Wright’s bat got hot (.317, 5 homers, 19 RBI in the month of July). As it sits right now, Wright is probably a top five contender, but his resume isn’t quite up to snuff. But, if the Mets continue to push the contenders in the NL East and he continues to put up solid numbers he could get what should have been his last season.

Ryan Braun

The problem with MVP awards is that they don’t mean much if your team isn’t in contention, and sometimes the voters let the power go to their head. Look at what happened in the NBA this season, I was all for Kobe, but all you heard about was how Chris Paul hadn’t paid his dues yet. I don’t see how that works, I always thought it was pretty cut and dry process: the most valuable player wins. Baseball voters aren’t as notorious for playing these games, but if this mentality prevalent you can forget about Ryan Braun. But he does have something working for him, the Brewers haven’t been to the playoffs in 26 years, and he just happens to be the catalyst for this offense, so he has an edge. But if they get clipped, so does he. His numbers are worthy, he’s currently hitting .300 with 30 homers and 84 RBI, but his abysmal .339 OBP could come back to haunt him.

Matt Holliday

Holliday’s numbers are as good as it gets (.346/.429/.594, 21 homers, 68 RBI, 15 steals), and if he started walking a little more (51 BB), while striking out less (72 K), he’d be in a whole other stratosphere. Unfortunately, his production may not be enough to get him the hardware because the Rockies are garbage. Personally I believe that value and being the best player are one in the same, and that value can be found beyond the teams that are in contention, but unfortunately my opinion isn’t very realistic.

Regardless, I still don’t think that Holliday belongs in this discussion. Throughout Holliday’s whole career he’s been a different player at Coors Field. Say what you want about the humidor, but take a look at the Rockies splits, they all enjoy a statistical lift while in the Rocky Mountain atmosphere, and Holliday is no different. At Coors Holliday has been Superman (.374/.447/.672, 12 homers, 48 RBI), but on the road he’s just merely a solid player, but he’s no longer in that special class (.317/.409/.511, 9 RBI, 20 RBI).

Yes, players are supposed to enjoy some level of home field advantage, but everyone else on this list has remained nearly the same, or been slightly better away from home. The only player that saw a drastic drop in their production was Braun, but that was only limited to home runs, where he’s hit 20 at home and 10 on the road.

Aramis Ramirez

Distinguishing between the Cubs candidates is nearly as hard as sorting out the plethora of talent among the National League contenders. Take your pick: Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Alfonso Soriano, or Aramis Ramerez, all four will be in the discussion one way or another. I decided to go with Ramirez simply because he has the best numbers of the bunch while staying healthy. Soriano has missed a ton of time, Lee’s OBP is lacking, and DeRosa just isn’t quite at that level. Having so many capable candidates could hurt each of them, and because they are all so close in production, chances are they’ll split the vote.

Hanley Ramirez

Speaking of paying dues, this may be Ramirez’s year. Last season if the Marlins would have made a run at a playoff spot he could have won the award, instead he finished 10^th despite playing on one of the worst teams in the league. Since the Marlins are flying high this year, Ramirez might finally get the recognition he deserves for being one of the best players in the major leagues. Chances are he’s going to end up with at least 30 homers and 30 steals, but if he gets hot he could become the fifth member of the 40/40 club. Pair that up with a .300 average and 80 RBI, and a possible playoff spot for the Marlins and it gets real hard to deny him the honors. Who’s more essential to their team’s success than Ramirez? That’s why he’s our early pick for the 2008 NL MVP award.