National League Fearless Forecast

Will Dan Haren be the difference maker in Arizona?  Will David Wright finally be bestowed with MVP honors?  Can the Marlins overcome the loss of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis?  Will the Cubs finally get to the Series?  Find the answers to these questions and more in part two of the IWS Fearless Forecast.

Best Record- New York Mets
There’s a lot of variables involved here, but the stars should finally align for the Mets this year and allow them to run away with this thing.  Well, run away is probably too strong, the Cubs have the talent to be competitive here, as do the Phillies, Rockies, and maybe even San Diego or Arizona.  The problem is that all those teams have issues too, if Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood don’t emerge as viable options to close games for their respective clubs it could cost them dearly in the standings.  San Diego certainly has the arms, but how are they going to score runs?  Can Colorado’s offense be successful away from Coors?  The 63 homers they hit away from their digs worries me.

I do make this selection with reservations, though.  I worry about severly about the Mets lack of depth, along with the fact that they are getting so old.  If one of their guys falls, who is going to step up and be able to fill in.  There isn’t anyone on their roster that could legitimately fill in for Carlos Delgado.  Moises Alou also has a long injury history.  Considering that Endy Chavez and Angel Pagan are basically all that’s in the cupboard, this should be a major concern for the front office.

Worst Record- Florida Marlins
Hanley Ramriez is by-and-far one of the most complete baseball players in the bigs, the problem is, who else is on this team?  They got some nice prospects in return for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and co. are probably a few years away from having a true impact.  Last year they had a solid offense that ranked sixth in runs, second in homers, and eighth in average.  It was their pitching staff that killed them. Considering their best pitcher was –gulp- Willis, who posted a 5.17 ERA, and Cabrera was their offensive catalyst, it’s easy to see them knocking the Pirates out of the basement.

Sleeper- Atlanta Braves
There’s just not too many teams in the National League that can compete besides the big dogs mentioned earlier, so the third wheel in the East gets the nod here.  I’m still not used to considering the Braves the underdog in this division, and things could resume their natural order sooner than you think.  Atlanta could very easily knock the Phil’s down a notch if Lidge doesn’t materialize, and sneak into the Wild Card spot.  Though, that is not to say they are without their own problems.  The major issue for this club will be finding a guy that can be their leadoff hitter.  The Braves don’t have anyone that can get on base and steal second.  No one. Kelly Johnson handled the job for most of last year by default, but it looks like it will be Yunel Escobar’s to lose.  Not to mention, they are leaning heavily on a pair of former aces in Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who are both in their 40’s, how long can these guys keep going before they break down?

Best Offense- Phillies
Can there be any other choice?  This team scored an astounding 892 runs last year, and that was with  their catalyst, Ryan Howard, stuck somewhat in a season long funk, as evidenced by his .262 average. 

Best ERA- San Diego
They should easily be able to defend their league leading 3.70 ERA from last season behind the arms of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Trevor Hoffman.  Young struggled down the stretch posting a 4.80 ERA with 68 strikeouts, and a 1-5 record through his final 69 innings, after a stellar first half which saw him put up a 2.00 ERA with 99 K’s and an 8-3 record.  If he can put it all together over the course of a full season, there’s no reason that he couldn’t compete with Peavy for the Cy Young award.  The wild card here is Mark Prior, who will join the Pad’s staff sometime after the break.  If he can return from shoulder surgery, a la Chris Carpenter, this staff could legitimately have one of the best staff’s -uh hum- assembled over the last 25 years.

Playoff Picture

NL East- New York
The only thing that they lacked last season was pitching, and now they have one of the best left-handers of all time in Santana.  The Phillies figure to be in the picture, but until Lidge proves that he can pitch in high pressure situations again the smart money lies with the Mets.  Last season Lidge allowed his opponents to hit .168 before the ninth inning, but in pressure situations (read the ninth inning or later) that figure jumped to .257.

NL Central- Chicago
With an extra year of seasoning for their 2007 crop of free agents their only obstacle figures to be the Brewers, who added Mike Cameron to an already potent line-up.  The Cubs should have no problem beating out the youngsters from Milwaukee, they just may not do it at Wrigley Field.

NL West- San Diego
Can these guys pitch their way to the pennant?  I just don’t think that the Rockies have what it takes to get it done, their unprecedented September run was legendary, but could it actually happen again?  They are going to get better by letting their young guys mature, but they really struggled away from Coors last season.  They hit .298/.372/.480 with 103 HR, 460 RBI, and 478 runs at home, but those numbers fell to .261/.336/.395 with 68 HR, 363 RBI, and 382 runs on the road.  A slight drop is to be expected, but the differential in the power categories makes me wonder if their Coors numbers are truly authentic.  Arizona definitely has the arms, but like San Diego, their offense is weak.  Can they really trade Jose Valverde and walk away from the situation unscathed?  Dan Haren’s impact is going to be tremendous, but Valverde saved 47 of their 90 wins last season, and don’t forget that we’re talking about a team that was outscored last year.  There is absolutely no room for error in the ninth inning, which means Brandon Lyon is going to have to step up in a big way if they want to get back to the playoffs. 

Wild Card- Phillies
They’re tough, far too tough to keep out of the playoffs.

NL Champion- Cubs
All the other clubs that figure to be in the picture either rely heavily on their arms, or their sticks, while the Cubs seem to have an even blend of both.  Although, if the Padres get in, and Mark Prior returns to form, they are going to be downright mortifying to whomever they match-up against. 

World Series
In part one the Indians were named the AL Champion because of the fearsome duo of Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia.  Well, new aricle, same plot, the Indians win in six.Awards

MVP-David Wright
We all know who the real winner was last season.  Sure, the Mets lost 12 of their last 17, along with a division title they should have run away with, but it’s simply preposterous to hold this against Wright.  A simple look at his split stats reveal that he had little to do with their implosion.  In fact they did this in spite of his performance.  From August 2, through the end of the season, the guy was on fire, scoring 48 runs in 54 games to go along with his .377 average.  Not to mention, during those infamous 17 games. He posted a .397 average.

Cy Young- Jake Peavy
The competition is starting to heat up in the National League Arms race, but no surprises here.  Peavy’s credentials speak for themselves, so I’m sticking with last season’s Triple Crown winner.

Rookie of the Year- Jay Bruce
There isn’t much competition here for Bruce, who will turn 21 this season.  He just needs to find an opening in the Reds outfield so that he can finally get a look.  Colby Rasmus could sneak away with hardware simply because he’s likely to get a look on Opening Day in the Cardinals weak outfield.  Bruce is far superior offensively to Rasmus, but he does have a tendency to chase pitches far outside the zone.  Scouts believe that he should have no problem adjusting to the big league pitchers, though.