I thought for sure that Alex Rodriguez was going to be the biggest prize on the open market this offseason, but I’m not so sure now that Marlins put Miguel Cabrera up for auction. It would preposterous to say that Cabrera is a better player than Rodriguez, but the fact that he is eight years younger than the quarter billion dollar man makes him a lot more attractive.
He’s not going to be cheap though. The Marlins are looking to land a haul similar to the one they got for Josh Beckett two years ago, which included a mixed bag of major league-ready players with some great tools prospects sprinkled in, namely Hanley Ramirez. This is going to make it difficult to get a deal done because few teams have the means to put together such a package. The Marlins aren’t the type of club to make a deal just for the sake of it, they are going to want players like Dustin Pedroia or Joba Chamberlain. In other words, the sure shot superstars of tomorrow. They’ll eventually get what they want because they have the upper hand here because they don’t have to make a deal. In no way is the pressure on them, they have until July 31, 2009 before they have to make a decision. Someone is going to have to overpay for them to get motivated enough to actually pull the trigger this winter. Sure, they would love to get out from under the $30 million Cabrera is set to make in arbitration over the remainder of his contract, but if they have to eat it, that’s what they’ll do.
Believe it or not landing Rodriguez is actually going to be easier. All you have to do is set $30 million on the table and tell him to sign on the dotted line. In reality its a little more complex than that, but theoretically it’s easier to sign a player than it is to trade for one. Take Cabrera for instance, he’s publically expressed his desire to play with Albert Pujols in Saint Louis on more than one occasion, but it will never happen unless he becomes a free agent. Unfortunately for the Cardinal faithful Walt Jocketty never met a prospect he wouldn’t trade, so their hopes of landing the other half of the Dominican Bash Brothers is looking grim. If he was a free agent we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
Ironically the same teams that are looking to sign Rodriguez are the same ones that could put together the spread the Marlins are looking for. With this new development Scott Boras has lost his bargaining chip because Rodriguez is no longer the only marquee name being shopped around town. Many teams would have considered settling for Mike Lowell if it meant saving $10 million a year, but now they have Cabrera to consider.
The question is, who do you go with? Let’s put all the business aside and just talk about sheer talent and potential. If we were just talking about next year then obviously Rodriguez is your guy. It would be borderline blasphemous to say otherwise, but what about in two years? Or Five? Ten? Rodriguez is going to turn 33 next July which means that he is going to start slowing down sometime in the near future. He has at least a year or two before this happens but it’s going to come sooner rather than later. Not everyone is ‘blessed’ like Barry Bonds.
At 24 years of age Miguel Cabrera hasn’t even began to peak and he’s already a perennial .300/.400/.500- 30 homerun- 100 RBI guy. These credentials already grant him admittance into the upper echelon of baseball royalty. In other words, he’s Albert Pujols with slightly less power, but as his body matures that gap should be closed. Over the last four years he’s averaged 31.5 homers in a park that murders right-handed power hitters. Put him somewhere a little friendlier and that number is probably on the higher end of 30.
Even if Cabrera never takes that next step he will be on par with Rodriguez until he begins to fade into a traveling circus act, a la Barry Bonds. I can’t see him just leveling out though. Take it for what it’s worth, but various studies show that players peak as hitters around the age of 26 or 27 and then begin to fall around 34. This means that Cabrera is still green and Rodriguez is at the wrong end of the spectrum.
Well, I’m not a believer in this. Many of you know that I feel each player should be judged on a case by case basis. I’m not willing to accept a study that added up what every player has done at a certain age and say this is what is going to happen. It’s stupid and irresponsible because players like Cabrera and Rodriguez are above averages. According to these studies Rodgiruez should be declining, when in fact he had the best season of his career this past year. What this tells me is that he has at least four more years at a high level before people start to talk about him in the past tense. As far as Cabrera is concerned, he will take that next step and I truly believe he will be one of the five best hitters in the league (if he isn’t already) until he enters his twilight years.
Now the question is whether or not Cabrera can continue to play third base. Personally I would say no, his line this past season (954 FP, 33 DP, 23 E, 266 A, 100 PO) was pedestrian at best. A lot of people blame this on the extra weight he has put on since his rookie year, and it is of concern, but it’s ridiculous to suggest that he is going to eat his way out of the league. He came into the league at about 185 pounds, and is now at about 250, but even if he lost about 30 pounds it wouldn’t matter. He’s just not nimble enough to play at the hot corner and would be better suited at first base. This shouldn’t make him any less valuable, or should it be of concern. Albert Pujols is one of the most valuable players in the league and even he couldn’t cut it at third. Prince Fielder is more round than muscular and he’s right up there too. Then there’s David Ortiz who can’t even play the field but still manages to force his name into MVP discussions every year with his bat.
If this is considered a knock on Cabrera then the demerits should also be applied to Rodriguez’s name. There’s been a lot of discussion about him making the move back to short even though he is older, bigger, and slower than he was back in 2000 when he first hit the free agent market. Even without Derek Jeter blocking his move back to short there was no way he was going to succeed, and frankly I think it saved him a lot of embarrassment. At an easier position he played merely adequate defense (.965 FP) and was only slightly above average (.957). Some team will likely roll the dice and see what happens even though he has about as much business at short as Alfonso Soriano has at second.
It’s a tough decision to make, but if I was running a team I would have to go with youth and upside potential. Both players are going to be around .300/.400/.600 until the curtains close so you can’t really go wrong, but I would rather have it for ten years instead of five. From a business standpoint Rodriguez is obviously the more attractive option considering that he is closing in on Barry Bonds’ homerun record. Cabrera may not break any records, but if he averages 35 homers a year for the duration of his career then he should end up with about 700, placing him fourth all-time. If that guy can’t help you win a few games here and there, then I don’t know what to tell you. You can either enjoy it during its prime or you can get it at the end. I’d rather watch the process than just see the result.
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The WB 11.09.07 at 1:39 am
Yeah. No, I don’t think you’re going to win this one, but you might be right. People have a limited view on things and fail to realize that Rodriguez has maybe four really good years left. Miggy is going to be around for a long time and even if he doesn’t do A-Rod during 2000-2008 numbers throughout his career he is still going to be more valuable over the course of each of their respective contracts. I think this is the point you were making and like I said people aren’t going to look at it like that.
LeRoy 11.09.07 at 2:23 am
I don’t know if I buy into this. A-Rod is like a Porsche that’s still in mint condition but is getting old. While Cabrera is like a brand new Acura in a world of Ford Mustangs. I mean the Acura is obviously a lot better than a Mustang, but the same could be said for the Acura and Porsche. Wouldn’t you rather drive that Porsche for five years more good years and a couple decent ones than have the Acura? I know I would.
Nick Underhill 11.09.07 at 2:56 am
LeRoy,
I don’t know if I’d go calling Miggy an Acura just yet. You don’t even know what you have with him yet. He is already an excellent player, but he too could end up being a Porsche in 2-3 years. Now wouldn’t you rather have the Porsche for 15 years? Even if he stays the same I would rather drive that Acura for 15 years. Not only is it still a high performance vehicle, you’ll get more miles out of it too. Not to mention that is more affordable, so you can have another Acura parked next to it in the driveway, or if you prefer, 2 Mustang GT’s.
Mike 11.09.07 at 12:48 pm
I’m with it. I’d rather see my team make a trade for Miggy than sign A-Rod… on the surface. Losing all your prospects hurt and I don’t know if I’d be able to sleep at night knowing that my team traded away Hanley Ramirez
Nick Underhill 11.09.07 at 12:55 pm
I see what your saying Mike, but at 24 years-old Cabrera is basically the same age as most rookies when they enter the league. He’s already a sure thing with the rest of his career ahead of him, how often do you get that? The guy is criminally under-rated. As far as the Josh Beckett reference goes, I think the people in Boston are sleeping well right now. That World Series trophy will keep them nice and warm.
bronxilla 11.09.07 at 5:20 pm
One thing to consider about Cabrera is his attitude. He gets downright lazy at times playing third, and will barely bend over to field a ball. This doesn’t seem to have affected his hitting, but where is he going maturity-wise in the long run? Look at Jose Reyes on the Mets. He cost the team a few opportunities with his lackadaisical running, and made some key mental erros in fielding. Despite his record and potential, a team has to consider the impact of attitude, not only on the indivudual’s performance but also on the effect on the rest of the team.
Nick Underhill 11.09.07 at 5:58 pm
Brox,
Very good points. This is something I should have addressed in the article because a lot has been wrote about his attitude and laziness. He is still young, so maybe he will grow up, but maybe he won’t. There’s a lot of athletes that just never take it seriously because they have all the natural talent and feel entitled. I personally think that if Miguel got around a good team with strong leaders he would harness it all together. You have to remember he is the veteran on that Marlins team. None of his teammates are going to tell him what to do, he’s the star, the defact-o leader, the World Series Champion. I really believe that his weight would drop instantly and his work ethic would improve in a ‘mature’ situation. He needs to get with someone that would make him a student of the game. I think that guy is Albert Pujols, he respects him and looks up to him. With a little of Albert’s work ethic the sky would be the limit for Miguel. Unfortunately that is not going to happen unless Miguel gets on the open market. He’ll be alright either way though. I read an interview where he said he is going to cut out all of his native food from his diet because it is so fattening (sp?). He realizes that this could be a problem and he’s addressing, so that’s promising. I really don’t the think the weight is that big of an issue. PEople have made more of it than what it really is. The fielding is unexcusable though. Like I sad before, he’ll be a firstbasemen before it is all said and done.
Tim 11.10.07 at 2:48 am
The Marlins are so retarded. They have a great young core of players but instead of shelling out some of that revenue sharing money on players they would rather stuff their pockets. They should at least wait 2 years. A lot could change in that time.