Why the Jay’s Might Steal the East

The Braves, all of the sudden, seem like everyone’s dark horse to win the World Series.  Never mind that a certain someone has already hit the disabled list, single handedly setting them back before their run even started, but I’m not going to say I told you so.  How dark can you really be when all of ESPN’s lights are shining on you, anyways?  To come out of nowhere, no one can be looking for you, at least that’s how I understand it.  You have to be lost somewhere in the shadows of the high profile teams, such as the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, yet still have legitimate talent.  Come to think of it, only one team fits that profile.  The Toronto Blue Jays.

 It’s a lot easier to pick a team like the Braves because all they have to do is win 85 to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, not to mention they play in the National League.  Out of all the divisions, the East is probably its strongest, but they don’t have the behemoths to overcome in order to succeed.  If they can rack up some wins against their western-more foes, and split their division games, it’s all peaches and cream.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, don’t have the luxury of being able to back into anything.  It’s all or nothing when you play in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees.  85 victories won’t cut it.  They are going to need to win at least 95, 100 to be safe and even then they could come up short.  In any other division they would have been stringing up banners for the last five or so seasons, they have the talent, they have the aggressive and forward thinking front office needed to succeed under such circumstances; the odds have just always been stacked against them.   Now they aren’t.

The stars have aligned to create a perfect storm in which the Jay’s can actually succeed.  Who knows if it will actually remain that way, Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman have money stacks bigger than Ronnie Belliard to play around with before the deadline, and there’s a certain HGH fueled enforcer on the open market that could skew the landscape dramatically if he were hired, but for now, at least for a moment, Toronto is a legitimate contender.

Let that sink in for a minute.  Toronto could win the East.

It doesn’t seem right, it doesn’t seem possible.  The evidence has been there all along, but we just tend to overlook them every year.  Everyone always says they have a nice team, but it’s always followed up with a ‘but’.

… they need time to mature.
… they need everyone to be healthy.
… they need more pitching.
… Boston and New York are too strong.

The list goes on and on.

So how did this happen?  How did they get to this point? 

It helps that the Red Sox have experienced some injury woes early on, and that the Yankees are bereft of proven starters, but even if this weren’t the case their pitching is deep enough to fight off of the big dogs.  While everyone is searching for an extra arm for the rotation, or bullpen help, the Blue Jays have a plethora of it, and when BJ Ryan returns, they’ll only get stronger.

Don’t think so?  I know it’s early, but through their first five starts, Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Shaun Marcum, and Dustin McGowan combined for a 3.57 ERA, with 24 strikeouts, and 8 walks against Boston and New York.  There’s simply not a better rotation in baseball.  These guys could legitimately strikeout a combined 700 batters if everyone stays healthy and plays up to their ceiling.  None should post an ERA above 4, nor walk 70 batters.  Then, at the backend of the rotation is Jesse Litsch, who was called up last season after posting a 2.24 ERA in 12 minor league games, and then went on to post a 3.81 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 111 innings.

All these guys have to do is get to the seventh inning with a lead and its lights out.  Jeremy Accardo has done a brilliant job filling in for the injured Ryan, but when he comes back they’ll form one of the most devastating 1-2 punches in baseball.  Last season, in his first year as a closer, Accardo converted 30 of his 35 save opportunities.   

For the first time in years the Jays should pitch their way through the summer with an edge, despite losing Casey Janssen to torn labrum during spring training. 

Should.   

Halladay hasn’t taken all of his starts since the 2003 season, and Burnett flirted with the disabled list for 2 years before finally winning the 20 games he was expected to provide the team with annually when they signed him in 2005.  These guys are going to have to stay healthy or else everything I just wrote can be scratched.   Also, with Scott Rolen out for at least the first month of the season with a broken finger, a lot of things are going to have to go right for this team to succeed.  Pennant Races aren’t won in April, but many times they are lost.

Their offense get’s lost behind the high octane lineups that the Red Sox and Yankees field, and while they aren’t going to slug their way to a title, they certainly have the pieces to compete. It would be a mistake to overlook them.

Aaron Hill, who hit .291 with 17 homers and 78 RBI last year, may be one of the most underrated second basemen in the league.  He’ll have to continue on his ascension to stardom for this team to have any chance, which means that he needs to find his patience at the plate.  In 2006 he struck out 66 times but only hit 6 home runs.  Last year he struck out 102 times with 17 homers.  The increase in power is nice, but at what cost?

The health of Vernon Wells is also another major X-Factor.  It looked like he arrived in 2006 after hitting .303 with 32 homers and 106 RBI, but those numbers quickly fell to .245, 16 and 80 the following season while he played through a shoulder injury.  Frank Thomas has carried this team early on, and he’ll have to continue to do so as long as Rolen is out.  He’s had a resurgence the last couple years, but at 40, how much longer can he hold up?

It all comes down to health.  If they stay healthy, they could *gulp* win the series.  If not, it’s another frustrating third place finish.  I think this little exchange a reporter had GM JP Riccardi on the eve of the season sums it up best.

“The key is health,” Riccardi explained of his team’s chances.  “We’ve just got to stay healthy.” 

“Cross your fingers,” replied the reporter.

“They’re already broken.”