Any story written on Grady Sizemore is almost certain to include the word potential. The two go together like college and Beer Pong. He’s been on the brink of stardom for two years and this was supposed to be the season he cashed in and took that final step. Instead he maintained in the categories he shouldn’t have, and regressed in the one’s that made us say ‘wait ‘til next year’. We’re still left muttering that phrase, but before it was in a positive manner, now it comes out in a tone reserved for bargains with God, and is accompanied with a scratch of the head.
You see, after leading the majors in runs (134) and extra-base hits (92), and the American League in doubles (53) in 2006, he wasn’t only supposed to take the next step. He was supposed to hurdle everyone and land at the front of the pack. Some of the finest minds in baseball, including Peter Gammons, had this guy pegged as the favorite to win the MVP award this season. With such high standards implemented it is easy to say that Sizemore crashed and burned, but that would be unfair. His .277/.390/.462 line, 24 homeruns, and 78 RBI were right on par with his career averages, as were his 155 strikeouts. Depending on how you look at it, his 34 doubles, 39 extra-base hits and 290 total bases were either way down, or back to normal. Personally, I don’t think he will ever achieve these marks again and chalk-up the large influx as a fluke. Ever since he broke into the league in 2005 Sizemore has been expected to force his name onto the short list of all-time great centerfielders, but I just don’t see it happening.
The fact that Sizemore regressed shouldn’t be what is most frightening to those in the Cleveland region. No, what should really scare them is that JD Drew is listed as one his most comparable players on Baseball Prospectus. As a statistical analysis this is dead-on, through the early part of both players careers they have walked a very similar path, but this hits on more levels than even they realize. The key for Sizemore is to break off and head in another direction. One that Drew never found.
Drew was the Grady Sizemore of the late ‘90’s. The All-American Boy with a sweet swing that conjured images of a young Mickey Mantle trotting across the outfield. By his second season (2000) it was clear that he was on the path to success, he hit .295/.401/.479 with 18 homers, showing glimpses of what he would be capable of in the future. The following season he missed 53 games, but he still managed to make the leap we are waiting for from Sizemore. The debate was no longer about his potential after he hit .323/.414/.613 with 27 homers, and 73 RBI. The scrolls were now writing about MVP Plaques and Hall of Fame inductions and they couldn’t wait to see how he followed up his sophomore effort. Instead of building on his success, in 135 games of service, he regressed, hitting .252/.349/.429 with 18 homers and 56 RBI. Through the next five years Drew would show glimpses of brilliance, but he has been little more than an above average player. He’s had a few great seasons, including a sixth place finish in the 2004 MVP vote, but he has been more like the guy in 2000 than the one in 2001. Sound familiar?
He has suffered through a series of injuries throughout his career, but like many blue chip prospects before him, he peaked at an early age. I’m not suggesting that this is what’s happened with Sizemore, it’s far too soon to close the book on him, but it certainly is a possibility. It would explain why he has failed to make any progress since his rookie season and seemingly has leveled off. Take away his obscene amount of doubles last season and he has basically been the same player through and through. Looking at his numbers through his first three seasons I am more inclined to think that he is going to be more of a .280/.375/.470, 25 homerun, 75 RBI guy, than the .330, 40/40, 100 RBI player that everyone expects. There’s nothing wrong with that if he continues at this pace he will be one of the better players in baseball. He’ll probably never develop the power needed to slide down in the order, or win any MVP trophies, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be effective throughout his tenure. I’m sure Cleveland will gladly sign his check if he provides them with the same production year in and year out. Fans will heckle him and writers will call him a bust, but that’s shortsighted.
This is what we do, not just in baseball, but every sport. Every couple years we find the next Mick, before Grady it was Jeff Francouer, and he too has failed to live up to the hype. The only thing holding him back is his hack-and-wack approach. He’s proved that he can reach the holy standards of .300, 30, and 100, but if he doesn’t become the best outfielder in the game many will write him off as a failure, which isn’t fair. Many already have. If he could find a way to be more selective at the plate he could easily elevate his game to the next level.
I fear this same thing will happen to Sizemore. Just let the kid play ball and let nature take it’s course. If he never takes the next step would it really be that big of a deal? He’s still better than 80% of the players in this league.
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
Are you kidding me? How could Sizemore be overrated? The guy is amazing and is certain to take it to the next level. Now please excuse me as I oogle Carrie Underwood singing the National Anthem.
First Post! Yes, I always wanted to be able to do that.
I agree though. I keep waiting and waiting for Sizemore to take it to the next level, I even spent a pretty high pick in my fantasy draft on him, and while he did decent, he didn’t return how I expected, or anyone else. I thought I was getting a slightly weaker version of Jose Canseco, maybe not even weaker. I thought he was going to be the 40/40 threat everyone was predicting he would be and he wasn’t. He killed me down the stretch, I think he his like .260 with four homersin September. don’t quote me on that, but it was bad
Yes, Carrie Underwood is ridiculous underrated on the hot scale. She’s got that thing about her. The innocent around the way look, but she isn’t an around the way girl. Ok..
Back on topic. In fear of sounding like Jayson Stark, saying someone is overrated isn’t the same as saying they suck. I tried to make that clear in the article, I hope it didn’t get lost. I think Sizemore is a great player, what I am trying to explain is that he is ‘overrated’ by a lot of people and may not ever live up the expectations. But, even if he doesn’t, he is still a good player.
Yea, how did you get that he was dogging GS in this article? What I got from it was that he was defending the young man and taking a swipe at the scouts and media that have unfairly placed ridiculous standards on young players throughout sports.
It is too, I ‘ve seen too many promising careers crushed by asinine expectations. Whether it’s calling someone the next MJ, for Eli Manning comparing to the high standard of his brother who is the best QB in history, or in this particular case.
As far as his development, I think Grady will improve, there’s too much there, but haha, I said the same thing with JD Drew. I thought to myself, oh my god, this kid missed all these games and still put up these numbers, look out. Then I laughed at Philadelphia, lol. Nah, I’m playing, but what boggles my mind is that he is still cashing in off that season when he has done nothing sense.
You have to wonder though if the injuries crippled his development. I mean the guy is a… uhh… wuss, I was suprised that he stayed in the game when Jimenez beaned him in the ankle in game two. I immediately said he’s out for the Series when that happened. I think everyone expected it, but the dude got up and marched to first like a soldier….
After a visit from the trainer.
Sizemore had a good case for being the single most valuable player in 2006. If that’s the expectation, then yes, he was overrated in 2007. But he still had a very good season offensively, played every day, and was a good center fielder to boot. I’ve got him as the 14th most valuable position player, right behind Vlad, and 6.5 wins above replacement.
Also, what’s to say 2007 is more indicative of Grady’s performance going forward than 2006 was? Sure, it’s most recent, but any decent projection should consider the last three seasons. He should be a top ten players for the next few seasons, and that puts him in the top 1% of players, literally, and top 3% given 9 spots per team.
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