Is David Price Ready for the Big Time?

The whole nation has been counting down the days until we would get a look at David Price in a Rays uniform after watching him strike out the side in his first spring training game against the Yankees.  Finally, 166 days later, we’re finally about to get our first look at him on a big league mound, as fate would have it, tomorrow night against the Yankees.

That first glimpse of Price against the Yankees was all he needed to capture the imaginations of baseball fans across the nation.  He has been everywhere since then, from ESPN’s E-60 too Sports Illustrated, and has become household name before ever stepping foot in a major league clubhouse.  Yet, despite the enormous pressure to rush him along, the Rays resisted even though he could have helped them win games this season.  So don’t expect anything to change now.  You’ll get a look at Price, just not a long one.

Joe Maddon will ease him along very carefully - at VP Andrew Friedman’s urging - and use him as somewhat of a left-handed specialist in situations where Price can throw his 95 mph fastball with great success against left-handed batters.  Think:  Joba Chamberlain, circa 2007.  Although, unlike Chamberlain, Price will be allowed to throw more than one inning on any given night. 

The Yankees had no choice but to coddle Chamberlain because they feared -correctly- for his health.  There are no such worries with Price but, at least initially, he’ll only face a handful of batters at a time until he settles in and gets acclimated to the major league game.  If he overpowers hitters over the next 16 days like he did in the minor’s, then Maddon will continue to increase his role and allow him to pitch against the likes of David Ortiz or Justin Morneau, and for longer periods of time.

Everything about Price’s first season as a professional has been easy, from his natural delivery to the way he dominates hitters, so they’re hoping that he will be the guy that puts them over the top and leads them to glory.  Judging from his early results, those are reasonable expectations.  Over three stops, ranging from A+ too AAA, he compiled a 12-1 record, 2.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts against 32 walks over 109.2 innings.  But as good as he’s been I wouldn’t quite go calling him a prodigy quite yet. 

He’s definitely got the stuff to be successful at the big league level.  His 96 mph fastball is about as good as it gets, his slider is comparable to Johan Santana’s, and he is still developing a changeup to compliment that high heat.  On paper, it all looks great.  His arm is perfect. It’s his head that has people worried.

With all the hype and high expectations that has inundated everything Price has done since being drafted first overall by the Rays in 2007, it’s easy to forget that he’s 22 and has only logged 18 innings at the AAA level.  Where, I might add, for the first time in his career he didn’t enjoy much success.

Over four starts at Triple A Durham, Price posted a 1-1 record with a 4.50 ERA.  Which alone would be cause for concern, but what really raised red flags was that he allowed opposing hitters to tee off on him to the tune of a .301 average.  For the first time, the same scouts that heralded him all year long began to doubt him.  He was still hitting 96 on the radar gun, but it was reported that the wicked movement on his fastball had went AWOL, which was why opposing hitters were suddenly making solid contact off him. 

It was also noted that he wasn’t mixing his pitches very well.  During his first start at Durham he exclusively threw sliders and changeups to right-handed hitters through the first two innings - not mixing his fastball in until the third- and 90% of his pitches to lefties were fastballs.  He’s not going to be able to get away with this against major league hitters.  If he continues to be predictable, these guys will just sit back and wait for their pitch.

To be fair, most of his recent struggles can probably be attributed to exhaustion.  Price has never thrown more than 134 innings in a season, and he’s already at 109.  He’s going to be a special pitcher; he just may not be ready yet.

Then again, when has he ever given us reason to doubt him?