Is CC Worth It? Probably Not

The fireworks are over, but the metaphorical ones in the baseball world are just starting to ignite. This is the time of the year when clubs start to sit down over their spreadsheets and decide if it’s time to blow things up and start over, or if they should go all in and try to finish the year off with a bang.

For some clubs it’s an easy decision. Teams like the Mariners have very little hope for the future, so there is little sense in holding onto anything that isn’t bolted to the clubhouse floor. Teams like the Rockies, on the other hand, have a plethora of young talent but can’t seem to get it together for whatever reason.

But that those aren’t the only tough choices to be made, teams that are in the hunt may have the toughest decisions to make. It’s a delicate situation. Do you go all in at the expense of the future for huge rewards now, or do you try to make a go with what you got, knowing that the future could be brighter if you hold off?

A word to the wise for all those looking to cash in their chips for a chance at CC Sabathia and post-season glory: these things almost never work out.

Take the Cardinals for example. In 2005 they decided to mortgage their future by dealing a young Dan Haren to the Athletics for Mark Mulder. Mulder had a solid 2005, posting a 3.64 ERA, but their all or nothing approach backfired as they fell short of their World Series dreams, losing to the Astros in the NLCS. The next season, with Mulder on the shelf with injuries for all but 93 innings, the Cardinals would go on to win the World Series after picking up Jeff Weaver off the scrap heap at the deadline. Since then, Mulder has pitched in only 12.1 innings while Haren has emerged as one of the game’s premier aces.

This isn’t the only case, though. Few of these deals prove to make much of a difference. Outside of Weaver, Mike Torrez of the 1977 Yankees is the only other pitcher acquired at the deadline to win a World Series game, and since the strike only two pitchers acquired at the Deadline have won a postseason game: Oliver Perez for the 2006 Mets, and David Weathers for the 1996 Yankees.

So the lesson here is that those positioning themselves to win the Sabathia sweepstakes might want to think twice. Despite the pressure from their fans to make a move, the Brewers have been reluctant to jump into anything. They currently have one to the top minor league systems in the majors, with three players named to Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week, so outside of the Rays, they may be in the best position to acquire his services. Although, it doesn’t look as if either club is going to make a major push for him, the Rays aren’t interested, and the Indians are driving a hard line and refuse to part with Sabathia unless they net Milwaukee’s top prospect, Matt LaPorta, whom the Brewers refuse to part with [editor's note: The Brewers have since moved off their stance and sent LaPorta and a pair of prospects to the Indians for Sabathia].

It’s the right move. A move like this can destroy an organization. The Brewers current circumstances are eerily similar to those of the Expos in 2002. They were 3 ½ games back on July 27 when they sent Lee Stevens, Bradon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Colon. After acquiring the pitcher they played sub .500 ball the rest of the way and finished 19 games back. Colon would walk during the offseason, and Lee, Sizemore and Phillips would all turn into stars. Think the Nationals wish they could have that one back?

If you’re a flawed team no one player can ever fix your problems. So, unless you are certain that one player will change your fortunes, which as it’s been proven time again, he won’t, it’s not worth trading in the future for now. What’s worst, trading away your future to watch it walk out the door that off season, and then trolling in last place for the next decade as you rebuild? Or missing the playoffs narrowly and then competing the next five years with homegrown talent?