The other day I was listening to the radio when two sports writers who were on the panel began discussing the Seattle Mariners, and of course, Ichiro Suzuki’s name came up. How couldn’t it, this man is the face of the franchise, and, as everyone would love for you to believe, one of the greatest baseball players of the last decade, if not, all-time. After making the obligatory remarks about the Mariners struggles thus far, the talking heads started discussing Ichiro’s credentials, and both of them agreed that Ichiro should start carving his plaque, because he’s a, no-questions asked, first-ballot hall of famer.
I may be in the minority here, but forget first ballot, I’m not even sure this man belongs in the same halls as Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and all the other great hitters the game has seen, or, let alone, just off the property with Pete Rose. This is a guy that has never hit 35 doubles in season, or drove in 70 runs. He’s had an OBP over .400 once, and has never slugged above .457. In his defense, Ichiro is something of an unstoppable hits machine, but then again, how valuable are 200 singles when they come from a position where offense isn’t exactly at a premium? If he were doing what he does as a shortstop or a second baseman, he’d be fantastic, as a right fielder, not so much.
Ichiro isn’t a dangerous hitter. I mean, seriously, what’s the worst he could do? Hit a single? The guy isn’t going to beat you, you don’t get scared with the game on the line when Ichiro gets to the plate. With a runner on first, if he makes contact, it’s not like he’s really going to advance a runner more than a base. Due to lacking secondary hitting skills, which means the ability to take a walk or hit for power, he needs to hit .350 or higher to be effective. Some season’s he does that, in others he doesn’t.
His career OPS+ is just 118, which I’m aware doesn’t take steals or defensive efficiency into account, but we aren’t talking about Rickey Henderson here. Ichiro is trying to make up for his inefficiencies thus far by trying to swipe more bags, but he’s going to have to steal about 70 bases to really be a difference maker. In an attempt to put things into perspective, he’s only 43rd among active hitters in OPS+ , right between Mike Sweeney and Eric Chavez. Not very elite company if you ask me.
This year that figure is at 99. It’s not hard for anyone to see that Ichiro has lost a step, he’s only reaching base on 10 percent of his infield hits, where his career average was once 12.2. His defense is still at a premium level, but at this point, how valuable is he? He’s only reached base 118 times, with a mere 14 of those going for extra bases, and drove in 19 runs and scored 53 times. How much does that really help the Mariners? His .288 average isn’t very impressive either.
Right now, there’s a .218 hitter who has reached base 108 times with 26 extra base hits, 43 RBI, and has scored 38 times. His OPS is 126. Going by those figures it’d be hard to make a case for Ichiro against the .218 hitter. His name: Adam Dunn.
If Dunn isn’t more effective than Ichiro, there isn’t much of a gap between the two. Sure, they are cut from a different cloth, Dunn has the secondary skills, but lacks the ability to hit for average, and Ichiro is the complete opposite. The point is, they are both lacking in one area of another, but Dunn makes up for it by taking walks and helping his team win games with his bat. Ichiro’s skill set just puts others in a position to excel, he isn’t a difference maker. Now I wouldn’t ever suggest that Dunn is a Hall-of-Famer, but for some reason everyone is damn sure that Ichiro is one of the best players in the game despite gobs of evidence proving otherwise. If you want to get crazy, what really makes Ichiro’s bat that much better than Placido Polanco’s?
Simply put, Ichiro is a solid ballplayer that I’d classify as good. He’s can hardly be considered a stud, and he doesn’t deserve that MVP he’s toting around, let alone a plaque in Cooperstown. The fact that he has as many MVP awards as guys like Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, and Ken Griffey Jr., drives me crazy, when he’s never, ever, for even a single season, been as effective as those guys. You could argue that John Olerud, Bret Boone, and Edgar Martinez were all more effective than Ichiro during the 2001 season and win, but that’s a different article.
I won’t argue the effect that this man has on the game. He deserves his global popularity. He hits for average and runs the bases extremely well, and his defense is outstanding. There’s no denying that he’s worth the attention he gets. However, through the prism of talent and on-field performance, he is not.
Cooperstown? He wouldn’t get my vote.
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{ 15 comments… read them below or add one }
Jesus Melendez 06.23.08 at 11:08 pm
When Ichiro is eligible (remember, this is only his EIGHTH year in the league), I would put him in…no questions asked.
Let me ask you this…is Rod Carew a Hall of Famer?
Nick Underhill 06.24.08 at 1:32 am
Yes, Carew is a Hall-of-Famer, Ichiro is a poor man’s Carew. Carew could slug, his OBP was well above .400 most years, and I believe he finished something around a .390 career OBP, he drove in more than 70 runs a bunch of times, he took walks. Also, the game was different back then. The era has to be taken into account here. If Kenny Lofton would have started out in 1967, he’d be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer, and you could even argue that Lofton, through his first 8 years, was better than Ichiro was through his. Maybe you’d have to go 9, to get a fair read since Lofton lost some time due to the strike, but just taking a quick glance without running the numbers, it appears that Lofton comes out on top in this battle.
Steve 06.24.08 at 8:51 am
I probably wouldn’t call Ichiro a first ballot hall of famer yet, but let’s just wait and see how the rest of his career pans out. He does own the major league record for hits in a season, hes been a gold glove outfielder every year since he came in, and he might have the best throwing arm in the league. More importantly, he was the first Japanese born everyday position player and he’s paved the way for guys like Kosuke Fukudome and Hideki Matsui, and likely many more players to come. Guys like Hideo Nomo may have started the Japanese revolution, but Ichiro was the guy who really put Japense baseball on the map and into the mainstream here in the US. That alone at least puts him in the discussion as a potential hall of famer.
bronxilla 06.24.08 at 4:42 pm
This is Ichiro’s 8th year in the majors and he turns 35 in October. How many 200+ hits years does he have left. He would need another 6 years of 200 plus hit seasons to reach the hallowed 3,000. Does he have a chance? I get the sense that a guy with a slight build like him who takes care of himself, and slaps singles all over the place definitely has a chance. I don’t think you can shut the Hall of Fame door on guy who gets 3,000 hits, regardless of his other stats.
And there is an argument to be made for being the everyday pioneer who opened the floodgates for other everday Japanese players (no disrespect to former Mets Shinjo, who’s bat is in the Hall as the first Japanese position player to play in the World Series).
Nick Underhill 06.24.08 at 5:13 pm
Bronx,
I agree with you 100% that if Ichiro can last a few more years that he will get into the Hall of Fame. Actually, there is no question to whether or not he will get in, he will, just in my opinion he isn’t at that caliber yet. He would be if he would have started in the United States. 3,000 hits would be there for sure, but that’s all in hindsight. You can’t crown someone off of projections, otherwise Len Bias would be in the Basketball Hall of Fame. So, now do you count his Japanese stats too? I don’t know. But, one place we differ is in that you think he will last six or seven more quality years. If you look at some of the more obscure statistics, it’s apparent that Ichiro is slowing down. His steals are up, but he isn’t legging out grounders like he once did.
Onto your next point. Ichiro does deserve credit for opening up the Pacific trade lines for the other Japanese players. He’s the most popular for sure, but shouldn’t that notion go to Nomo? He’s the one that ushered in the new wave. Granted, he isn’t a position player as you have stated, but isn’t that kind of a moot point? Isn’t this whole thing kind of moot? There were Japanese players in the past, sure, they were few and far between, but Ichiro isn’t the first. Although, I do concede that he may be the most important. Still, even then, we aren’t talking about Jackie Robinson here, and even if we were, his heritage has nothing to do with his Cooperstown induction, his body of work spoke for itself. Should we put Jim Abbot into the Hall-of-Fame for being the first one armed pitcher? Or should we just remember him by a simple relic because his body of work wasn’t up to snuff, like we are now? I think a bat with Suzuki’s old jersey, or some other piece of memorabilia, would suffice just fine.
Jesus Melendez 06.24.08 at 10:25 pm
Carew was a slugger?
Nick…please. His career slugging percentage is WORSE than Ichiro’s! Ichiro is a TREMENDOUS fielder and a FAR superior base stealer to Carew.
Also…let’s not discredit what Ichiro did in Japan when looking at his hit totals. As far as I’m concerned, like the Negro Leagues…OTHER professional baseball leagues should be taken into consideration when talking about the Hall.
Remember, it is the BASEBALL Hall of Fame…not the MLB Hall of Fame.
Interesting argument though…care if I take it over and post it at the Hall?
Nick Underhill 06.25.08 at 3:04 am
Take it Bro, but one thing you might want to look at, those 3 whole points of slugging might be a little skewed considering that Ichiro has played strictly in his prime, Carew played until he was 39. And the whole Japanese debate, that’s apples and oranges, and right now, we only count MLB. That’s a whole new debate.
Robert Allen 06.25.08 at 6:35 am
“Ichiro isn’t a dangerous hitter. Could you even imagine someone intentionally walking this guy? No. I mean, seriously, what’s the worst he could do? Hit a single?”
American League managers would disagree with you. Ichiro has led the AL in intentional walks twice, and is leading again this year. He’s ranked in the top four in the League in intentional walks six of the last seven seasons (2003 being the only exception).
Why? Well, with two outs and runners in scoring position, his lifetime MLB average is .358. He’s one of the most effective players in baseball with the game on the line.
To me, Ichiro is a no-brainer Hall of Famer. He’s a singles hitter. Fine, you’re right. But he’s a singles hitter of historical proportions, and combined with his defense, arm, baserunning, and cultural significance, that makes him an easy HoF choice.
Jesus Melendez 06.25.08 at 10:36 am
“And the whole Japanese debate, that’s apples and oranges, and right now, we only count MLB. That’s a whole new debate.”
Not so fast.
The 17 Negro Leaguers (both players and pioneers) enshrined would disagree with you and, of course, there is a “Women in Baseball” exhibit. Given Ichiro’s influence, popularity and, yes, statistics…I’d wager you’ll eventually see in the inclusion of Asian ballplayers in Cooperstown.
Again the National Baseball Hall of Fame is NOT the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.
Nick Underhill 06.25.08 at 2:53 pm
Jesus- I know about the Negro league guys that they inducted. That’s different. It wasn’t like the writers decided that they were going to vote for these guys on their own, no, MLB told them who was going in.
I’m not saying it won’t happen, that it shouldn’t happen, or anything like that, I’m all for it, but right now, with the exception of the ceremonial Negro League induction, the Hall-of-Fame is pretty much all MLB.
Nick Underhill 06.25.08 at 2:56 pm
Robert- That’s just lazy writing on my part. I usually fact check my stuff like crazy, I apologize, and I’ll edit the piece accordingly.
bronxilla 06.26.08 at 3:51 pm
Interesting that you refer to a one-armed pitcher’s “body of work”.
Nick Underhill 06.26.08 at 4:51 pm
lol, no pun intended there. I love Jim Abbot, he’s an inspiration to everyone.
Phrank 07.01.08 at 6:37 pm
Of course Ichiro is deserving of HOF consideration.
If IS gets 200 hits in 2008, he’ll tie the *all time* record for consecutive 200-Hit seasons. IS already holds the single season record for hits. He is among the stolen base leaders every year (300+ and counting) and more important, Suzuki’s gotten far better at avoiding being throw out trying to steal.
He isn’t merely a “good outfielder.” With 7 Gold Gloves and counting, he’s one of the best 2-3 defensive outfielders to play the game in the last 15 years.
If IS gets to 2,500 hits, he should be a shoe-in for the HOF. They can put him right next to Bert Blyleven
Bb 08.26.08 at 3:18 am
Stumbled upon your site and just wanted to make a couple of comments. One thing about comparing Ichiro to guys like Griffey or Pujols is that they are not the same kind of hitters, and they shouldn’t be. As a leadoff hitter, Ichiro embodies everything that the position should be about — getting on base, stealing bases, letting the 3-4-5 guys drive you in. It wasn’t until misplaced leadoff guys like Alfonso Soriano came along that there was this delusion that the leadoff hitter ought to have 90+ RBI. Put Ichiro in the 3 spot, and I’m sure he’d hit 20 HR - 100 RBI.
I always thought that Ichiro could improve his walk total, but there’s also something great about how often he puts the ball in play. When a runner’s on first and Ichiro gets a single, yes he probably only advances the runner one base, but that’s a lot better than bouncing into a double play or striking out. Take Adam Dunn, for instance. OK, Dunn doesn’t hit into many double plays, but that’s because he only hits the ball when it’s going out of the ballpark and no one’s on base. He draws a lot of walks, but so far this season he’s hit 34 HR and scored 66 runs, which means he’s driven himself in more than 50% of the time.
Another interesting thing to note — compare Dunn and Ichiro’s lifetime with RISP:
Dunn: 939 AB, 430 R, 385 RBI, .227
Ichiro: 960 AB, 729 R, 378 RBI, .342
Ichiro not only drives in runs, but is on base to score them too.