Has MLB Reached Parity?

Just a year ago I sat back and wondered if the game I had loved, will always love, and will continue to love no matter the course it takes, was being destroyed by the same extreme levels of capitalism and poverty that plague our society today. On one axis you had the Yankees and Red Sox, and then at the other end there were the Pirates and Royals. There was royalty, a couple good teams, and then everyone else. Save for the surprise team that seems to emerge each year, you pretty much could bet the house on how things would play out. Or in the rare case that something happened to one of the big gods, you knew they’d rebound after reloading during the offseason.

No more. The era where swollen sluggers, shrunken parks, and stacks of money equated to certain success is no longer true. That formula flew out of the park when the Mitchell Report came and brought the last of the cheaters out from the shadows, effectively ending the steroid era. Because of this teams that are now built on youth, speed, pitching and defense are succeeding, while teams built to ride the shoulders – or biceps – of puffed up aging sluggers are floundering. This, in conjunction with baseball entering its fifth year of revenue sharing, has created a level of parity that hasn’t existed since the late 1980’s.

The revenue sharing system that is in place isn’t perfect. It has flaws, warts, scars, and everything else, but those inefficiencies are healing and the scars have faded, seemingly, overnight. Last year at this time the difference between the best team in baseball and its worst was 17 games, this year that gap has shrunk to 12. That’s hardly any reason to send Bud Selig a thank you letter, but it shows progress.

Tom Verducci spoke on some of these issues last week, inspiring the first comic book cover to ever grace Sports Illustrated. He made a few sweeping generalizations about the current market landscape, briefly mentioning the focus on youth and the current trend in handing out multi-year deals to young stars, before shifting his focus exclusively on the Rays new found success. All of these things are very important, and the Rays are the embodiment of this new mentality, but he failed to go beyond the surface. All he really did is set the table for the real discussion.

He did, however, extract a great quote from Bud Selig:

“This is one time I can say that this is exactly what we tried to do. I think we have more parity than any [sport].”

It’s great that Selig recognizes the need for things to even and fair, that everyone should have the same chance to compete for a title each year, but he is sadly mistaken if he thinks that his work is done.

He has a great stat to hang his hat on: 2o of 3o teams have made the playoffs since 2003. But, how much parity can there really be when there is still such a drastic difference in payrolls? The three teams with the lowest payrolls (Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Florida) come in at a combined $113,599,223, while each of the top three teams (New York Mets, Yankees, and Detroit) solely exceed that figure. Oddly enough, each of the three titans are fighting to stay out of last place, while Tampa and Florida are currently in first, and Oakland is only 2 games back. I don’t know how much the credit for this shift should fall on MLB, but I will admit that they have taken steps to allow these teams to have sustained success through the current system.

Without it the Marlins wouldn’t have been able to lock Hanley Ramirez up to a long term deal. The Rays wouldn’t have been able to sign Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Scott Kazmir, and James Shields. The Twins signed up Justin Morneau. The Royals with Joakim Soria, and so on goes the list.

Notice a trend? The mid-market teams have to sign these players to survive, and they recognize this. In exchange for a few free agent years, the player receives some security and avoids having to go year to year through arbitration. Chances are at the end they are going to walk out the door, now it’s just a few years later. But this allows the Marlins to have six years to build around Ramirez and to find a successor when the time comes. Maybe if they are lucky they’ll generate enough interest around their star players so that they can break out of their small market status.

“Revenue sharing may have helped (the trend),” Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin explained to Verducci, “but I think that it’s a change in the industry mind-set more than anything… Look at Ryan Howard; he’s making $10 million with less than three years. By the time these guys are free agents, you’re talking $15 million to $20 million a year. Not a lot of teams can pay one guy that kind of money and still compete.”

Due to this shift in forward thinking, everyone else is jumping on board. They have to. Gone are the days that a team could go out during the winter and build a contender. With teams locking up their players at a younger age the talent just isn’t going to be there in the future, thus making the ever-thinning free agent market even more inefficient. Occasionally there will be a prize, but all that’s really left out there are thirty-something players on the downside of their career looking for a bloated – if not exuberant- salary for way too many years.

Without the mid-market teams working as a feeder in baseball’s ecosystem as they once did, everyone is going to have to look to go younger to fill their gaps. Due to Selig’s DEA-type raid on the clubhouses, teams can longer ride it out with their thirty-somethings and hope they find that trainer to revitalize their careers. These guys are sliding when they should be sliding, opening up the doors for the younger players to step in and contribute immediately. Granted, this system would be flawed if these prospects weren’t producing.

Of the top 50 homerun hitters in the Bigs, as of June 1, 38 of them are 31 or under. That number is even more skewed among starting pitching where only six players over 31 rank in the top 50 in ERA among pitchers with 60 or more innings, without a single one penetrating the top 10. This isn’t necessarily a new trend, considering that since 2004 the average age of pitchers in the top 20 has been 29.5. Though, it should be noted that this season the number has dropped significantly to 26.45. In 2004 there were four pitchers who were 35 or older in the top 20, this year that number is zero (Bill Baer of Baseball Digest Daily did a great study on this if you want to read more on it).

Due to this increase in pitching, the league as whole is weaker. It’d be easy to equate this to the crack down on performance enhancing drugs, especially since there is some correlation in the numbers. Just two years ago there were 5,386 homeruns hit, this season we are on pace for 4.442. Take Brad Lidge and Chase Utley away and that number drops nearly 100.

This makes it easier to accelerate prospects along and have them contribute right away. There isn’t a 50 home run hitter blocking the avenue for guys that have the ability to hit for average and play outstanding defense. Thus, making your Justin Upton’s and Evan Longoria’s that much more valuable. It also makes the pitchers look a lot better. With the vials out of the clubhouses, balls that once went into the stands now die on the warning tracks, thus the resurgence of the pitcher. Last year at this time to get into the top 50 in ERA all you had to do was post a figure under 5.50. This year Jeff Suppan, who ranks fiftieth, has a 3.93 ERA.

Currently, the American League is on pace to have its lowest runs and homeruns totals since 1992 when expansion occurred, effectively triggering the greatest slugging boom the game has ever seen. Equate it to other things if you will, but this is significant. Runs are down eight percent from last season, and homeruns are down a staggering 20.

I recently asked a Detroit Tigers scout who was in town to take in an Erie Seawolves (the Tigers’ AA affiliate) game his take was on the altered landscape of the game, and what his thoughts were on the youth movement. Let’s just say that he doesn’t agree with the Tigers getting older, off the record of course, but he did offer this:

“There’s a huge shirt away from power and age, mostly because power doesn’t exist like it used too, which is great for the young guys. That era is over. Teams that are built on youth, defense, pitching- the ones that are fundamentally sound, if you will- that’s the future of this league. Teams like the Yankee’s that chase aging sluggers can’t compete in today’s market. Not with teams like the Rays and Diamondbacks that are solid from top to bottom. Sure, they might go buy a few guys, but they aren’t going to have sustained success until they start producing more quality players. “

Welcome to the renaissance.