Hamilton or Volquez?

Whether they like it or not, Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez will forever be linked in baseball history. Both of them have the talent to be among the game’s elite, you could even argue- and win- that they are already there. Hamilton currently leads the league in RBI and Volquez is doing the same in ERA and strikeouts. No one figured that it was going to work out like this so soon, if at all, but it has, so the debate starts now: Hamilton or Volquez?

It’s impossible to crown a winner or a loser in this deal because both sides have legitimately made out. The Rangers were desperate for pop, and the Reds, with Jay Bruce on the horizon, needed to free up some space and acquire a couple young arms for the future. Everyone wins… for now.

Both these guys come with their fair share of red flags. Volquez has always had the talent, being rated the Rangers’ number one prospect by Baseball America in 2006, but his approach to the game never allowed him to realize his potential. Last year the Rangers grew so frustrated with his perceived lack of focus that they forced him to sign a contract during spring training that listed conditions that he was to adhere too while in the minor leagues, before demoting him all the way back down to Class-A Bakersfield.

General Manager Jon Daniels and his staff viewed Volquez’s outward appearance as a complete lack of professionalism, and believed that he was disinterested in the game. They didn’t like that he lacked a pregame routine, that he’d sit on the bench staring into space with a total disregard for what was happening on the field when he wasn’t on the mound. They hated his baggy pants and untucked jersey, his dreadlocks, and how he just sat his hat on-top of them. So they gave him a list of rules that seemed more like something that a high school pitcher would have to endure, not one with Major League talent, but Volquez had no choice. Among those rules were these: run on and off the field within 12 seconds, on days pitching only speak to the catcher, manager, and pitching coach, use a number 2 blade when shaving head, always have shirt tucked and pants tidy, chart pitches on off days, and so on and so forth.

“We wanted him to take his ability and translate it into being a professional,” Daniels explained earlier this season in a press conference when asked about Volquez and his new found success.

Certainly, like Boston deals with Manny Ramirez and his similar quarks, the Rangers would have put up with his approach to the game if he was performing, but he wasn’t. From 2005-07 he went a combined 3-11 with a 7.20 ERA in various stints with the big club. So he did what he had to do and cracked down and met the rules, and now confesses that it saved his career.

“The best thing I did,” he told and ESPN reporter when asked about the conditions of his 2007 season.

That’s not all though, there’s also a little discrepancy about his age, and his identity altogether, for that matter. When he signed with the Rangers in 2001 he started out as 17 year-old Julio Reyes, then, after an immigration crackdown in 2003, he became 18-months older after it was revealed that he was actually Edison Volquez. Last year he told the Rangers that his name was missing an ‘N’, so for now, at least, his name is Edinson.

Hamilton’s issues are a bit more serious. He has the ability to be one of the best players in the league, but he also has the make-up to become one of its most tragic figures. When the Devil Rays made him the top pick in the 1999 draft, ahead of Josh Beckett, Baseball America projected that he would be in the Major Leagues within three years. A car accident kept him off the field for all but 21 games in ’01, but he looked to be on his way the next season, after batting .303 with 9 HR and 44 RBI through 56 games with the Bakersfield Blaze before being shut down with lingering back and shoulder injuries. That’s when things fell apart.

On July 15 of that year Hamilton received a 25-day suspension for failing his second drug test, and would continue to battle his demons until he was suspended indefinitely in 2004. He was to be reinstated in March of 2005, but due to various infractions, he was kept out of baseball until June 30, 2006. Hamilton claims that he made eight stays in various rehabilitation centers and that he tried to commit suicide at least three times during this span.

That December the Reds thought enough of Hamilton to take a $50,000 risk by selecting him away from the Rays in the Rule 5 draft. He quickly proved to be a wise investment, recording a home run on his first major league hit. He went on to hit .292/.368/.554 in 298 at-bats, becoming the biggest Rule 5 heist since the Twins mugged the Astros for Johan Santana. The only problem was that he struggled with injuries, missing 72 games due to wrist, hamstring, and stomach troubles. Some bumps and bruises were to be expected as he transitioned back into the grind of playing every day, but many believe that the drug use has taken such a toll on him that he’ll remain injury prone.

So far it looks like both of these guys have new life. Volquez’s immaturities look to be long lost, and with his league leading 1.34 ERA, there’s no doubting his preparation. With Hamilton, you just have to give him the benefit of the doubt. Even after his bout with addiction, he remains one of the game’s best all around athletes and still has light tower power. He’s committed only three errors this season and currently leads the league in slugging, homers, RBI, total bases, and extra base hits, as well as ranking second and third in average and slugging, respectively.

So who’s the big winner in this deal? When the deal was made everyone felt that the Rangers got the best of the Reds. Baseball America had this to say:

“Volquez’ newfound success (at Triple-A Oklahoma last year) came after he discovered a feel for his curveball. It’s still only an average pitch, but that is enough to keep hitters off of his 92-94 mph fastball and his plus changeup. The Rangers have lauded his makeup at times in the past, but they canceled his callup (sic) to Texas last August because he overslept and missed a bullpen session. If he keeps his head on straight he has the stuff to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty to like for the Rangers here. Texas turned a pitcher who has overstayed his welcome into a potential impact middle-of-the-order bat who fills one of their bigger needs. For the Reds, it’s a more risky move since they’re gambling on being able to turn Volquez into a solid member of the big league rotation, something the Rangers failed to do in six years. But at the same time, in one year the Reds turned a $50,000 investment in Hamilton into a potential member of their starting rotation. By dealing away Hamilton, they trade away a rather injury-prone player from a position of strength to fill a clear need at another position.”

The thing is, though, is that no one knew that Volquez was going to be this good, we knew that Hamilton had the talent all along. There’s a reason that everyone used to think so highly of Hamilton, he just lost his way for a while. The question now is whether or not Volquez can sustain and remains an effective major league pitcher for years to come. Assuming that Hamilton holds up and stays healthy, he’s always going to be one of the game’s most prolific sluggers, there’s no doubting that, so for the Reds to be considered the winner here Volquez is going to have to be an ace.

From what I’ve seen so far, Volquez is legit. Will he end up with a 1.50 ERA? Probably not, chances are he’ll end up somewhere in the 2.50-3.00 range, which would should be good enough to compete for the league crown in today’s climate. That might look a little optimistic, but to end up at 3.00 all he’d have to do is post a 3.62 ERA the rest of the way. Personally I think he’ll do better than that, while he’s not technically a rookie, it is his first full season in the bigs, and that rookie wall likes to come crashing. His stuff is just too good, before the season no one realized how exceptional his change-up is, they all thought that he was just all high-heat with an average curveball, but his off speed stuff is currently among the nastiest in the game. His control is a legitimate concern, though. He’s currently third in walks allowed with 32, but at the end of the day, the fact remains that no one can hit him. Even if is putting guys on base they aren’t scoring because no one can hit him. He’s currently second in the league with 6.02 hits per nine innings. Some guys can just get away with giving up a couple bags. Carlos Zambrano comes to mind here, in 2004 he was in the top ten in base on balls allowed with 81, and he still managed to finish with a 2.75 ERA. Since then, he’s remained in the top five in walks allowed, yet he remains one of the games most effective aces.

Only time can tell, his durability while increasing his workload is a legitimate concern, but his pure talent is undeniable at this point. We’re a quarter of the season in and the guy is still dealing, at some point people are going to have to believe. With Hamilton there just isn’t that much to say, he’s a plus defender and always a threat at the plate. He strikes out too much and doesn’t take enough walks, and he probably never will, which could be a problem down the line, but the kid can flat out hit so the damage will be minimal.

How do you declare a winner here? Right now it looks like a push. Volquez has already overcome his demons, so as long as Hamilton keeps his at bay, it looks like it will remain that way. The Reds get a future ace and make room for Jay Bruce and the Rangers get a bat to build around, how can anyone lose here?