Grading the Rotations

It’s never too soon to get a jump on the season, and with pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in 28 days, now is as good a time as any to start taking a look at who’s leading the arms race.  Some of the usual customers are still on top, but a few of the staff’s in the top ten might surprise you.  Of course this all subject to change when, or if, Johan Santana touches down in his new clubhouse.

1.  Arizona Diamondbacks-  Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Doug Davis, Randy Johnson, Micah Owings
 Last season Webb lead this team the to the National League’s best record despite pitching behind an offense that ranked 14^th in run production.  Adding Haren gives them one of the most formidable one-two punches in baseball, turning this rotation from intimidating to down right scary.  But that is not to say they are infallible.  Can Randy Johnson return from back surgery to anchor the backend of the rotation?  Will Dan Haren be the pitcher he was with Oakland that posted a 2.30 ERA during the first half of the season, or the one that put up a 4.15 during the second half?  On paper you have to give them the benefit of the doubt, but even if things don’t work out for them, they should still remain in the top three in the National League.

2.  Indians-C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Aaron Laffey
There isn’t a pair of aces out there that can hang with Carmona and Sabathia on either side of the Mason Dixie line, which should have automatically qualified them for the number one spot, but shadows loom due to their meltdown against the Red Sox during the ALCS.  If the once highly touted Jeremy Sowers realizes his potential, the backend of this rotation would certainly be a lot stronger if he were able to push Laffey to the bullpen.  Cliff Lee could also steal the spot with a strong showing during spring training.

3.  Padres- Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Clay Hensley
The Pads stayed in contention until the very end despite having an offense that ranked in the bottom five in average, OBP, and slugging last season, due to the strength of their rotation.  Peavy is a perennial Cy Young contender, and barring a second half meltdown, Young could have contended last season after posting a 2.00 ERA before the break.  Mark Prior could become the third hurler with Cy Young talent depending on how he returns from offseason shoulder surgery. 

4.  Red Sox- Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester
If the Red Sox swing a deal for Santana you can figure them into the number one spot for the next five years.  As is, they still own one of the best staffs in baseball.  That is, if Schilling and Wakefield can hold up for another season.  With both men turning 41 during the offseason it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for them to implement a six man rotation to give the pair an extra day’s rest between starts.  This would also allow them to give Clay Buccholz regular work. 

5.  Angels- John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Jon Garland, Joe Saunders
Reliable pitchers are invaluable in baseball now-a-days, and the Angels have a stable full of workhorses that would make any General Manager jealous.  With Garland, they now have three pitchers that ranked in the 25 in innings in the AL last season.  If Ervin Santana can find the discipline that has eluded him throughout his career to pitch strategically, instead of challenging every batter he faces with his heater, he could prove to be a valuable asset for this staff.  He may be a better option out of the bullpen, where batters will face him once as opposed to three or more times when starting. 

6.  Dodgers- Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley, Jason Schmidt
Penny and Lowe are proven commodities, but after the pair, questions loom over the rest of the staff.  Schmidt has proven that he has Cy Young potential, but at 34, will he be able to return from shoulder surgery? Kuroda put up stellar numbers in Japan, and was considered to be a workhorse, but will be able to circumvent a second half meltdown similar to what Dice-K endured last year?

7.  Cubs- Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster
Lilly had his career rejuvenated last year after coming over the ‘little’ league after eight seasons full of ups and downs in American League.  If he can continue to build on this success, and Carlos Zambrano can keep his head on straight, the Cubs should have no problem pitching their way into the playoffs next season.  Hill looks to be on the brink of emerging as one of the dominate arms in the NL, and Jason Marquis is as good a four as there is.  The only major if here is Dempster, who has had moderate success since being converted from his role as closer.

8.  Rockies- Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jason Hirsh, Kip Wells
Any staff that picks up Wells to round out their rotation has weaknesses, but with Francis, Jimenez, and Cook at the opposite end, those concerns are minimized.  The Rockies finally have a legit ace with Francis, who went 16-5 after May 2, and Jimenez keeps hitters off balance with an arsenal that includes a 100 mph fastball and a 72 mph changeup. 

9.  Twins- Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser
At least for now, they deserve to be in the top ten.  A quick flashback to the 2006 season will remind you that when Liriano went down he was out pitching Santana inning for inning, in every statistical category.  If he is able to recover from elbow surgery, there’s no reason that this team shouldn’t compete again in the AL Central.  Even with the revamped Tigers and their modern version of Murderer’s Row.  That is, of course, if Johan sticks around.

10.  Tigers- Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson
Their whole staff broke down last season, but they are deserving of a nod here.  Bonderman went 2-8 with a 7.38 ERA during the second half, and Rogers didn’t fair much better with his 0-4 and 5.72.  Many scouts fear that Willis is suffering through injuries, and Robertson failed to build on his 2006 success.  So the only real strong point here is Verlander, but if they get all cylinders clicking at the same time, look out.