Does Liriano Have a Case?

I still remember the first time I encountered Francisco Liriano’s name.  I was doing some research for my old column at Pro Fantasy Sports, it was my job to know the up coming stars, and try to locate them before everyone else.  All I thought was that I had just discovered a brilliant pitcher that was flying low on everyone’s radar, what I didn’t realize is that because of it, I would be fired from my first paying job as a sports writer.

When I found him, Liriano was a mere footnote on the now infamous A.J. Pierzynski trade.  He had made somewhat of a name for himself at the minor league level, but Baseball America still had him ranked as the third best prospect in the Twins organization behind Matt Garza and Joe Mauer heading into the 2006 season.  Even worse, the Twins were oblivious to how special Liriano really was, as he appeared to be sentenced to a year of bullpen duty until something opened up in the rotation.

On May 19 Liriano finally got his big break in an interleague game against Milwaukee, a week after picking up his first save.  He quickly worked his way through five dominate innings (1 ER, 5 SO), picking up the win in his first start of the season.  After seeing this spectacle first hand, I was rather enthusiastic about the Twins new arm, and proceeded to named him our American League Stud of the Week in my weekly PFS column.  I knew that he had something, but I had no idea what he would go on to do.  Neither did my editor.

After sending in my copy, my editor contacted me and told me enough was enough, they wanted a rewrite.  They felt that I was compromising the integrity of their publication by giving such high acclaim to a ‘nobody’.  Never mind that he posted a 2.63 ERA with 204 strikeouts over 167.2 innings at the minor league level the year before, I was making a mockery of the whole site, this piece would not see the light of day as it was.  My pride and convictions were too strong to allow me to oblige with their request, I felt this kid was worth a waiver pick-up, and the world should know.  Because of this I would eventually be relieved of duties.

As we all now know, the jokes on them.  Before tearing his UCL on August 28, Liriano led the league in ERA (1.96), WHIP (.96),  and K/9 (10.72), making him a front runner for the Cy Young award.  Possibly the most impressive part of it all was that he was out pitching Johan Santana at the height of his dominance.  But due to numerous set-backs, both physical and mental, the wonder kid has struggled to pitch his way back into the Twins rotation.

It isn’t because of his pitching, though.  Liriano got a shot early on in April, but after being rocked to the tune of an 11.32 ERA, he was reassigned to the minors for the foreseeable future.

Due to his weakened elbow, his devastating slider, which was been described by Alex Rodriguez as the most devastating pitch he’s ever faced behind Joel Zumaya’s 100 mph fastball, had been compromised.  His 2006 success didn’t come from his 97 mph fastball, as crazy as that might sound.  No, it was his ability to pair it up with his 91-mph slider, a pitch that literally made hitters buckle at the knees.  It was his bread and butter.  He threw this pitch an average of 30 times a game during the ‘06 season, but in his first start this year he brought it out three times, twice putting it in the dirt.

At the time it seemed that Liriano was doomed to end up like Rick Ankiel.  A brilliant pitcher, who appeared to have briliant career ahead of him, but instead was relegated to one-year wonder status.  But it now appears that his early struggles were a blessing in disguise.  The velocity was there back in April, he hit 93 on the radars a few times, but his mental progress needed to catch up.  With the spotlight off for the first time since injuring his elbow, Liriano headed down the minors to rework his arsenal, but more importantly, to get his mind right.  This is exactly what he needed.

The pressure wasn’t there to perform.  Everyone had already given up on him, so he room to breath.  There were no sports writers dissecting his every motion looking for a flaw.  But, most of all, the pressure to come in and replace the departed Johan Santana was gone.

With the weight of the world off his surgically repaired elbow, it finally all clicked.  Through his first 17 starts at Triple-A Rochester, Liriano has compiled an 8-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, along with 92 SO to go against 28 walks through 105 innings.   More importantly, he’s averaging six innings a start, which shows that his arm is ready to take on a major league work load.

His overall numbers are great, but as of late, it’d be a fair assessment to say he has done nothing but dominate his minor league foes.  Over his last four starts he’s allowed only one run, walked three, and struck out 32 hitters over 28 innings, and over his last ten starts he’s 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA.

So why isn’t he back up?  Liriano and his agent believe that it’s a ploy to avoid arbitration for another year, and as the stats suggest, they might have a case.  They’ve filed a grievance with MLB, but the Twins contest that they just don’t have spot for him right now, which makes it almost impossible for Liriano to win this case.

Their starters have been solid, solid enough to make it impossible to prove that there is some type of fowl play going on here.  They have a collective ERA of 4.11, with Livan Hernandez at the bottom of the pack with a 5.29 ERA.  The other guys have been solid, though, as they all currently have ERA’s that reside below 4.30.  Liriano could probably show-up and immediately become the ace of this staff, so it doesn’t make much sense to keep him down.  At the very least Minnesota could strengthen their relief corps with his presence, and allow him to readjust to the Major League level, but they know that Liriano would likely be unsatisfied being used in that capacity.

It’s unclear if this is what GM Bill Smith is really trying to avoid arbitration for another year, but I highly doubt it.  To qualify for arbitration a player needs three years of service time, Liriano currently has two years and 45 days.  With 64 days left in the season, he’d fall short either way.  His only hope would be to qualify as a ‘Super Two’, where the top 17 percent of players with between two and three years or service qualify for arbitration, and the word is with people in the know that he’d also fall short of qualifying here also.

With the Twins in the hunt for the Central title, where they are currently a half game back, it’s doubtful they’d play these kinds of games.  They may be a small market team, but if Lriaino were to be granted arbitration he’d only see his salary increase by about $1 million.

So, it looks like the only thing the Twins are guilty of in this case is being stupid, not cheap.