Detroit vs Boston

From the early reports you’d think that the season was already over, because, you know, Boston and Detroit are the only teams that have a legitimate chance at playing for the title.  I’m just as excited as anyone about these two teams, but everyone is so gassed on Detroit that they have forgot how stellar Boston’s offense really is.  Unlike Detroit, they will get better just by staying put and letting guys mature.  So in an effort to debunk some of the myths, I decided to break down the teams, position by position to find out who is better. Catcher:  Pudge Rodriguez vs. Jason Varitek
Even at the age of 35 Rodriguez keeps plugging away, hitting for average even though his power has left him.  Although, I have to wonder, can the guy still see the ball?  Does he just go up there and guess?  How is it possible to walk only nine times in 502 at-bats, while striking out 96 times? 

At least Varitek still knows what is going on, his average was lower last season, but his .367 OBP was far better than Pudge’s .294.  Honestly, I only think it is going to get worst for old Pudge. 

Advantage:  Boston

First Base:  Carlos Guillen vs. Kevin Youkilis
I think the move to first is going to do wonders for Guillen’s career.  It’s going to be a little harder for him to pick up those All-Star appearances, but then again, he’s been overshadowed and overlooked forever.  You’d be hard pressed to find a player that finished in the top ten for MVP voting and got left off the All-Star team in the same season.  Yet, Guillen did just that in 2006.  That’s what I like about him though, he’s one of those guys that just put his head down and goes to work.  Last year, he put up a silent .300/20/100, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t keep doing just that next season with a little more protection in the line-up.

Youkilis is one of those guys that just kind of gets by, he’s like the C student that sits quietly in class, and never does anything to draw attention to himself.  If he didn’t play in Boston, chances are, no one would really know who he is.  He rarely does anything to change the outcome of a game, but, he can hardly be considered a weakness in the Boston line-up.  He does strikeout way too much, as evidenced by the 105 he picked up last season, but he made up for it by drawing 77 walks.

Advantage:  Detroit

Second Base:  Placido Polanco vs. Dustin Pedroia
This is probably the most interesting match-up on the roster.  Do you go with the established player, Polanco, who is coming off a career year?  Or do you opt with the guy that has an unlimited ceiling?

I like Polanco’s approach at the plate a lot, he gives pitchers fits, and he’s virtually impossible to strike out, recording under 40 each of the last five years.  The problem I have with him is that he takes walks at an even lower clip, which basically makes him a poor man’s version of Jimmy Rollins, without the pop, or the ability to steal bases.  Last season this wasn’t a problem because Polanco picked up 200 hits for the first time in his career, but if he fails to do so next season, how much value will he really have?

In Pedroia’s case, the sky’s the limit.  If it weren’t for Polanco having the best season of his career, one could make the case that Pedroia has already surpassed him without raising any eyebrows.  These two players are cut from the same cloth, they simply are asked to get on base, not hit into double plays, and score runs.  Pedroia is never going to be a huge difference maker, but at 23-years-old, I think he will be more of a contributor next season, and will eventually leave Polanco in his dust.

I have to go with youth here.  This decision could come back to haunt me if Pedroia goes through a sophomore slump, although, that’s a risk I’m willing to take. 

Advantage:  Boston

Shortstop:  Edgar Renteria vs. Julio Lugo
This one doesn’t even need an explanation, does it?  Renteria isn’t the player that he was with the Cardinals at the beginning of the decade, but he also isn’t the same guy that struggled through the 2006 season with Boston.

The thing is, even his down years are better than the best Lugo has to offer.  I just can’t believe how bad this guy is, and furthermore, why hasn’t Theo Epstein done anything to address it?  Its mind boggling, just two short years ago this guy hit .308/.373/.498 in the same division while he was with Tampa Bay, but after being dealt to the Dodgers he fell apart, finishing out with a line of .219/.278/.267.  So, we know that he can do better than his 2007 numbers (.237/.294/.349) suggest.  At this point I need him to prove it first.

Advantage:  Detroit

Third Base:  Miguel Cabrera vs. Mark Lowell
For the first time since his rookie season, Cabrera has an adequate supporting cast.  But more importantly, he actually has the motivation he needs to get in shape. Putting up jaw dropping numbers has never been a problem, he’s a career .313/.388/.565 hitter, with 138 homers and 523 RBI since being called up as a 20 year-old midway through the 2003 season.  What has been a problem is getting him properly motivated.  There have been reports that he put himself on a vigorous offseason workout program for the first time in his career, and he has been quoted multiple times as saying that he has never been more excited about baseball in his career.  That’s a scary thought for American League pitchers.

I think Boston’s front office said it all a few months back when they opted to keep Lowell in town instead of pursuing the best player of this generation, Alex Rodriguez.  That’s setting the bar pretty high, but I think they made the right decision for this team, at least for the time being.  At 34 years-old, Lowell probably doesn’t have many more seasons in his tank like 2007, when he hit .324/.378/.501 with 21 homers and 130 RBI, but he should remain effective for at least a couple more.  There’s no way that he’s on Rodriguez level at the plate, they don’t need him to be, that’s what Manny and Ortiz are for, but Cabrera is.  Factor in the glove work, and it makes things a lot closer, but not close enough.

Advantage:  Detroit

Right Field:  Magglio Ordonez vs. JD Drew
JD had somewhat of a coming out party during the playoffs, but that’s the problem with him.  He’s a notorious coaster.  He can turn it on when he wants to, but where’s the incentive?  He’s been among the league’s highest paid players based simply on his potential throughout his career.  At some point, that isn’t going be enough.

Magglio, on the other hand, does produce results.  Last season he finished second in MVP voting, and he easily would have won any other season, but A-Rod decided to hand in one of the finest seasons in the history of the game.  I just can’t back Drew until he decides to turn it on for 162 games.  He has the ability to play up to Ordonez’s level, I truly believe that, but until he shows me he can…

Advantage:  Detroit

Center Field:  Curtis Granderson vs. Jacoby Ellsbury
For the time being, Granderson has to get the nod here.  There’s not enough evidence to make a case against Granderson.  Ellsbury only came up for 33 regular season games, and although his numbers were stellar, it’s yet to be seen what he can do over the course of 162 games.  Things will be a little different when pitchers get to see him more than once.  One could even contest that his numbers will likely go down, but we’ll wait until we have the data to make that ruling. 

Advantage:  Detroit

Left Field:  Jacque Jones vs. Manny Ramirez
Haha, I’ll just reference you to this.

Advantage:  Boston Designated Hitter:  Gary Sheffield vs. David Ortiz
Sheffield isn’t as bad as his .265 average from last season suggests.  He was on fire heading into August, with 23 homers, 67 RBI, and an OPS well over 1.000.  Then August came, and after suffering a few injuries, he fell off hard, hitting below .200, with 2 homers, and 8 RBI to close out the season.  The question is, at 39, can he come back and be effective?  After all the steroid controversy, my guess is no. The more interesting question here would be if the 2000 version of Sheffield could compete with today’s version of David Ortiz.  Big Papi is coming off his best season as an all around hitter, posting career highs in average, on-base percentage, and slugging, as well as OPS.  His home runs and RBI numbers were the lowest they’ve been in four years, but I’m sure the Red Sox weren’t complaining.  It’s really a no contest.

Advantage:  Boston

Final Verdict
They’re stellar from top to bottom, but if Ellsbury continues to develop things could easily level for these teams, but for now Detroit has a slight edge.  This doesn’t mean that Detroit is the best team in baseball.  Factor in pitching, and it’s a whole different story.  The truth is, there is no clear cut winner.  We’ll have a much better idea of this once spring training opens and we know for sure how Detroit is lining up their troops, a Manny Ramirez vs Miguel Cabrera battle over who’s better in the four hole will get us a little closer to understanding what’s what. So for now, it looks like Detroit is a little stronger, position for position, top to bottom, but how much does that really matter?  A more effective 3-4-5 can go a lot further than winning a marginal battle over who has the best second baseman.