Deal or No Deal: The Hot Stove Report

I’m usually as intrigued by the wheeling and dealing that goes on during the offseason as I am by the games on the field.  Just like everyone I else I like to break down the deals, analyze what the implications, and make up theoretical line-ups.  Unfortunately the free-agent market has been without the fireworks.  The two big names that could have caused a total upheaval, Alex Rodriguez and Mike Lowell, returned to their rightful owners.  Torri Hunter signing with Los Angeles (AL) is the only move that could cause some ripples in the water.  In other words, the Angels have just widened the gap in the AL West.

That’s okay though because there is still enough action to keep the stove hot, it just won’t be ignited by dollar signs.  Instead the cinders that are already burning will have to be shuffled around to the get the flame going again.  Some of the names that are being thrown around in possible trade scenarios are simply stunning.  This offseason won’t be defined by the first $300 million dollar contract as it was once believed it would, instead it might see a seven-time Gold Glove- winning third basemen dealt for the first time in the history of the game.  Or a three time Cy Young winner, the winningest active pitcher under the age of 26, a former MVP, and a 24 year-old four-time All-Star are also available.

With such a sparse free-agent market teams are scouring for those much needed upgrades.  At this point it seems as though no one is off limits.  How could they be?  Can you justify stowing away a Jacoby Ellsbury when Johan Santana is readily available?  Chances are half the names being circulated will remain with their rightful owners, but eventually someone will cave and pull the trigger on that blockbuster deal.  So for now it’s a waiting game.  That doesn’t mean we can’t start the speculation process though.  That’s half the fun.

Dontrelle Willis

It seems like every winter Dontrelle Willis’ name pops up in the rumor mill.  So what makes this time any different? Willis is cheaper.  He just came off a season in which he experienced a Fausto Carmona playoff-esque breakdown that lasted, well, the whole season.  The problem is in the Marlins eye’s his worth remains the same.  

That isn’t to say they are unwilling to move him, they are asking for two young major league-ready players, which is good news.  The bad news is that they have announced that they would have to be blown away by the offer.  Of course they would like to move his contract sooner rather than later, but they have all the time in the world and are willing to use it.  Willis is signed through 2009, so it might actually benefit them in the long run to hold out for a while and allow him to rebuild his value.

Interested Parties:  Mets, Mariners, and Diamondbacks
Odds on being moved:  10-1

Miguel Tejada

At this point Peter Angelos would probably throw in an option year on his wife and the rights to his next born son to move Tejada.  So what’s the problem?  Well, let’s just say that his MVP award has lost a bit of its luster since the 2002 season.  He’s still a very capable player, but a .300/.350/.450, 20 HR, 80 RBI-guy isn’t quite worth $13 million a year. 

If the Orioles were willing to eat, say, half of the $26 million he is owed through the remainder of his contract a stampede would ensue.  Unfortunately they aren’t ready to carry part of the burden.  This isn’t the only hang-up, the asking price is just as steep as his salary as they are looking to get two top prospects return.  You’d think that after trying to move Tejada for the last two years they’d realize that the market is thin for a former MVP past his prime, but apparently someone forgot to send them the memo.    

A lot could change as spring approaches.  Once they realize they over estimated the market yet again they might become a little more flexible.  Now it’s just a matter of how badly they want to do it. 

Don’t look now but rumor has it that they are also listening to offers for Erik Bedard, more on this later.

Interested Parties:  None
Odds on being moved: 25-1

Scott Rolen

He hates Tony LaRussa, the Cardinals are going nowhere and need to get younger immediately, it’s a win-win scenario for a lose-lose situation.   So why hasn’t the seven-time Gold-Glove winner been moved yet?  Simply put, the Cardinals have a distorted view of reality.  No one, and I mean no one, is willing to pay $36 million for a guy coming off a season in which he hit .265 with 8 homers and 58 RBI.  It’s the same situation that is taking place in Baltimore with Tejada.  They want to get rid of the over priced former superstar because he isn’t performing, yet they have him priced for what he used to be.

Apparently the Cardinals were in talks with the Yankees before A-Rod came crawling home, but nothing happened because they were insisting on a ridiculous package of prospects that included Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy. 

As a Cardinals fan this would have been the happiest moment of my life next to the 2006 World Series.  Too bad it would never happen.  They should be able to trade Rolen, there is a market out there if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, and he will to get off this sinking ship, but not at that price.  Chances are it will be to the loser of the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes.

Interested Parties:  LA Dodgers, Brewers, Reds, and Indians
Odds on being moved:  10-1

Miguel Cabrera

I still stand by my previous statement that Cabrera is the most attractive option on the market.  The guy is 24 years old and already has 138 homeruns and 188 hits.  In many ways he’s a prospect himself, merely months older than both Ryan Braun and Dustin Pedroia, last seasons Rookie of the Year winners.  His talent is undeniable, the only question left is how much is he worth?

The Marlins are well aware of what they holding and they are driving a hard line at the negotiating table.  The price:  Four players, none of them with more than three years experience, all certified future superstars.  In other words players like Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun, Joba Chamberlain, etc.  This deal would be a lot easier to make if Cabrera wasn’t two years away from free agency.  This wouldn’t be a major problem if the Marlins would open up negotiating window for Cabrera’s possible suitors, but they will allow no such thing.  So you can’t blame teams of being tentative when approaching this situation.  Who wants to mortgage their future to see it walk out the door in two years?

Few teams actually have the talent to get a deal done, and of those that do, even less are attractive enough to keep Cabrera around for long.  The Angles figure to be the major player in this situation, but since they picked up Hunter and Jon Garland it’s unclear how interested they still are, especially since they would have to include Howie Kendrick or Reggin Willits, on top of their top pitching prospect, Nick Andehart, to get it done.  It’s possible that they acquired Garland to just turn around and ship him to Florida, although he doesn’t quite fit the profile that the Marlins are looking for.  With eight years of experience, he is well above the three or less the Marlins are looking for, but it should be noted that the broke into the league when he was 20. 

Interested Parties:  LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco
Odds on being moved:  8-1

Johan Santana

It’s no secret that I’m dead against the Twins making this move until the deadline but I don’t think they really care what I think.  This is clearly the prize of the winter, every team wants him, including the Twins, but few have the resources to get, and retain, his services.  It’s no longer a matter of if they will trade him; this thing is already well under way.  Negotiations have broken down between the two sides and they have begun exchanging lists of players with interested clubs.

The scenario is basically the same as the Cabrera Sweepstakes.  They are asking for three or four top prospects, two of whom would be ready to play on Opening Day.  The Yankees and Red Sox are considered to be the frontrunners, but the Angels, Dodgers, and Mets could also make a play. 

Apparently the Stienbrenner’s are willing to discuss everyone in their organization not named Joba Chamberlain.  The Red Sox and Dodgers are going to have to do some serious soul searching here if they want to get involved. In the Red Sox case Minnesota would likely demand a package that includes Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.  They have stated that they would be willing to trade one of those players, but certainly not all of them.  For the Dodgers it would take one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Clayton Kershaw, to get it done.

Yet again, the trade is not where it ends.  Whoever wins here would have to have some very deep pockets to extend his contract.  According to Buster Olney of ESPN he is looking for something in the neighborhood of six years and $150 million on top of the $13.25 he is owed next season.

The losers need not fret though.  There is a nice consolation prize in the form of Erik Bedard, although it is going to take a haul of prospects to get him.  The Orioles are looking for a package that includes a few big sticks and some bullpen help.

Interested Parties:  Boston, New York Yankees, New York Mets, LA Dodgers
Odds on being moved: 3-1

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