Over the next few days you’re going to be inundated with articles proclaiming the Brewers a lock for the wild card now that they have acquired CC Sabathia from the Brewers. After acquiring the 2007 Cy Young winner without giving up anyone in their immediate plans for the future, on the same day they moved into a tie with the Cardinals for the wildcard, it’s an easy prediction to make. It’s safe; it makes sense, but is it the right one?
More importantly, for the Indians, was it the right deal to make?
After a rough start Sabathia has bounced back and once again looks like one of the most dominate pitchers in the game. Over his last 14 starts, he has a 2.16 ERA and has struck out 109 hitters against 20 walks in 104 innings, after posting a 7.88 ERA in April.
So any worries about his stuff should have been quelled, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t dominate against the lesser foes that will oppose him in the National League. There’s not a single pitcher, not Brandon Webb, not Edinson Volquez, maybe not even Johan Santana, that can rival Sabathia’s stuff. So, on paper, yes, the Brewers just got a whole lot better.
They don’t have anyone that is going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon so adding a pitcher is the right move. Outside of Ben Sheets they hardly have a serviceable pitcher that can count on to march out there and pick up a win every fifth day, and their bullpen- well three of their late-inning guys have ERAs over 5.00. So, getting another guy that can eat up innings and keep them in the pen is a huge help.
But, how much impact can one guy have? Sabathia is only going to have a chance to make an impact every fifth day, so how many starts is that by the end of September? 12-15? So if he doesn’t dominate in at least 10 of those, it’s going to be a disappointing trade. As far as deadline deals go, bullpen arms and position players tend to have more of an impact because they can make a difference on a daily basis.
As I pointed out in my pre-trade article, since the strike only three starters that were dealt at the deadline have went on to win a playoff game: Jeff Weaver, Oliver Perez, and David Weathers. That’s not very reassuring if you’re a Brewers fan. Especially when you consider that they gave up a top ten position prospect in Matt LaPorta for a possible rental player that may not make even get them to the playoffs.
What about the Indians, though, they definitely won here, right? Well, maybe, and maybe not. LaPorta projects to be a solid major league player. He’s currently hitting .288/.402/.576 with 45 walks, 63 K’s, and 20 homers in 302 at-bats. He draws walks, and hits homers, but he does strike out a lot. The Brewers have used him in the outfield, but scouts believe that his future is at first base, where he is expected to be above average defensively.
Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson are the other two players who were acquired in this trade. Scouts believe that Bryson could be the gem of this trade. He’s not quite there yet, but in a few years he could prove to be the Francisco Liriano of this deal. Meaning that he’s not the headliner of the deal, but he could end up being the most valuable asset. Last year in Rookie Ball he posted a 2.67 ERA with 70 Ks and 12 walks in 54 innings. This season hasn’t been so kind, as he’s currently sitting on a 4.25 ERA with 73 Ks and 20 walks in 55 innings. “Bryson has a potential plus fastball/slider combo and misses a ton of bats already with both pitches,” explains Rob Neyer.
As for Jackson, well, I’m not impressed with him. He has a career 5.36 ERA at the major league level, and apparently doesn’t have the ability to get hitters out. But, maybe Cleveland will win with the player to be named later, who, as rumor has it, will be third baseman Taylor Green, who scouts say has All-Star potential.
This deal isn’t going to work out like the Bartolo Colon heist of 2002, but it could work out nice for Cleveland. LaPorta is almost a lock to materialize as an impact bat, but the other players represent a bunch of question marks. I’m just surprised that Cleveland didn’t hold out until the deadline and let things heat up a little more. With a couple more suitors involved they could have gotten a better package.
Despite that, I’d say Cleveland got a winner here; the jury is still out on the Brewers. If CC doesn’t win them a World Series, and he walks next season, you have to call it a bust, right?
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
You’re forgetting that Sabathia will also deliver a high pick to the Brewers when he signs somewhere else as a FA. That’s a telling point of compensation, one that my A’s have used repeatedly over the years on rented players (I think Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher both came from those kinds of picks). So the benefit of renting CC is a little more than that, depending, of course, on whether or not they bone the pick.
Looking at how much of the Tribe’s schedule consists of intradivision games, the real winners here are the White Sox, Twins and Tigers. Cleveland may have been realistically out of it already, but at this point even playing spoiler is out of the question.
I’m with you that rental players are often a bad bet. But I think the Brewers have to do this. They’re going to lose Sheets next year, too, by all accounts, so although the Crew has the young position players to sustain a good team for years to come, this is probably the last year they’re going to have the starters to make a serious run. You gotta take a chance sometimes, so I think this is a good move for Milwaukee even if they don’t win the WS.
This puts Milwaukee as a front runner to win the National League Pennant! This means a serious World Series Contender. Remember, how the Atlanta Braves were able to win 14 divisional titles? Well, Milwaukee has that management right now…and a pitcher with not only playoff experience, but who can also hit the ball rather well. Look for the Milwaukee Brewers to be contenders for years to come!
DMT- Good point, they will be compensated with Draft picks. But the draft is a crap shoot, if they don’t win the title, they win a huge risk of drafting players that won’t have an impact in the future. LaPorta is a certified future star, you don’t get guys like that every year. If you did, Cleveland would have held onto CC and tried their luck.
Andrew- Another good point. This certainly opens things up in the Central. Cleveland may be struggling but they still are a very talented team that could mess things up down the stretch.
AGM- I like that this club is being aggressive. They are trying to win, you can’t hate on that. But long term, it’s not the best move.
Ken- I think that’s a little premature. The Cubs are still the team to beat until the Brewers prove otherwise.
That was a moronic comment AGM. Outside of Sheets and now Sabathia they have no proven arms. Their bullpen is sub-par, and defensively they can’t hold their own. They have the hitters, sure… but how much impact is CC going to make every 5th day, without a solid defense behind him?
Also, let’s take into consideration the fact that most pitchers struggle at first when switching leagues, and it may just be more hype for the Brew Crew.
This team is NOT a serious pennant contender.
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