Opening Day is in the books. The Tigers aren’t going to go undefeated. Rich Harden gave us a good game, and Ryan Zimmerman blessed the Nat’s new home. Now that we can finally put the winter hype to bed, it’s time to start taking a look at the spring hype and figure out what’s fact and what’s fiction. Right now, that means that you can only be talking about one thing, the Atlanta Braves.
Everyone loves these guys right now. Everyone. Ken Rosenthal named them as his pick to win the Series. Jayson Stark did the same. Let me paraphrase that for you again, two of the most respected minds in baseball have the 2008 Atlanta Braves as their pick to win the World Series… Wow.
I like this team as much as the next guy, they were my sleeper pick in the National League, but I’m not going to take it further than that. Let’s not forget that the Braves are still the third wheel in the National League East. The Mets’ have their age issues, but they’ll get through them, and if they don’t, who’s going to stop the three headed monster of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins? Not the Braves.
It’s easy to see why everyone is so enamored with them. Their top three pitchers are a combined 114 years old. In contrast, the Yankees whole staff comes in at 143. Neither one is in a great situation on paper, but I’d rather have the youth on my side. Simply put, they had some serious injury risks before spring training ever started. Sorry, I just can’t get comfortable with a team that relies on two players that won Cy Youngs awards in 1991 and 1995, respectively. Don’t get me wrong, John Smotlz and Tom Glavine are still effective, but at this point it’s reasonable to believe that time is lurking in the shadows and waiting to cut them down.
Last year pitching was their biggest problem. They brought Mike Redmond in at the end of March to provide some much needed help. They’re in a much better situation now, but it’s going to take a lot more than Glavine to revitalize them to the point that they regress back into their mid-90’s form when they lead the league in ERA 11 years in a row while producing seven of eight Cy Young winners. A lot of that is going to rely on Mike Hampton, who has failed to put together back-to-back quality seasons this millennium, and the rookie Jair Jurrjens, who was acquired in the Edgar Renteria deal.
Far too many question marks if you ask me, but unlike the Avery, Smoltz, Glavine era, these Braves will rely heavily on their sticks to win games, and they have enough lumber to make a legitimate run. The only teams that outscored them last year (810 runs) were the Phillies and the Rockies, and those clubs play in some of the friendliest confines in the league. This year the Braves should get a major lift out of having Mark Teixiera for a while year, and if Jeff Francoeur continues to increase his walk total, and moves further away from his hack-and-wack approach, they could prove to be the most productive offense in the National League.
The impact of Teixera should not be underestimated. After he arrived their production at first base went up 100 points in average, 242 in slugging, and their OPS went up by 371 points. To say that he improved them is an understatement; he should provide at least 50 runs to their overall total alone. In which case, that would tie them with the Rockies at 860, and put them only 32 behind the Phillies pace, assuming they can replace Andruw Jones seamlessly.
They are younger than the Mets and Phillies, and if push comes to shove they have a plethora of pitching, which is huge considering that teams averaged 42 starts from players outside of their opening day rotation last season. The East, in a way, is wide open. Everyone has some issues they need to overcome before they can be taken seriously. Brad Lidge is going to have to revert back to his 2005 form, before the Pujols home run, and Kris Benson is going to have to have some sort of impact for the Phillies to be successful. For the Mets, Pedro Martinez is going to have to get, and remain, healthy for them to have a legitimate shot at the title.
So who are the Braves? They aren’t what they used to be, that’s a guarantee. Stark, Rosenthal, and everyone else that is doing the Tomahawk Chop right now cite their reason for selecting the club is their motivation to prove everyone wrong for overlooking them. I hate to say it, but these guys are the voices of ESPN, Sporting News, and Fox, respectively, so the spotlight isn’t exactly missing Atlanta right now. Everyone is looking for them. Outside of Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, and maybe Chicago, they are the popular pick now. So where is the motivation now?
I don’t think this ever mattered to begin with. Even with all the added hype, all the gushing, I still don’t like the Braves enough to upgrade them from my sleeper pick, and I will continue to place them third in the East, without an October invite. Sorry Bobby, kick a couple bags and get pissed off, hype your boys into a frenzy, and maybe you’ll leap frog someone and sneak in. Until then, enjoy the press, because this is probably the last time you’ll see the words Braves and World Series printed in the same article.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/news/story?page=08expertpicks
Read that closely. Exactly 3 of 19 ESPN “experts” (or whatever snarky anonymous bloggers refer to them) picked the Braves to win the NL this year. Three of Nineteen. Roughly 16%. Sorry pal, but thats a far cry from “everyone”.
In all fairness to Stark, I think he (and Rosenthal) were going out on a limb, and even stated so (Stark even suggested he was “nuts”). Last March I could’ve given you 150 reasons why the Rockies wouldn’t win the NL, and we all saw what happened. Point is, the NL is pretty wide open right now, and just as you can give a million compelling reasons why any one team WON’T win, I can give you a million reasons why any one team can. Every team is flawed. I’m sure the Cubs, the Phillies, the Mets, or whatever team you call your own has a million equally compelling reasons why they may shock the baseball world this fall.
Except the Reds, because Dusty Baker is an awful, awful manager, and that fanbase will be held hostage by his ineptitude for the duration of his tenure.
Snarky, annoymous bloggers?!?! Ok, I give my first and last name, anyone that wanted to find me could (write me at the University of Penn State if you wish), and I hardly ever call people out, check my history. Way to just jump on a stereotype and try to bend everyone into it. I never once came at these guys or insulted them for what they wrote, I merely chose to disagree, but it’s whatever man.
Look around right now, just in the last couple weeks everyone is hoping on the bandwagon, a lot of people are behind them. Those 2 people you named are 2 of the must respected in baseball. You could say they were going out on a limb, but a lot of people are following. It seems since Rosenthal wrote his piece, a lot of people are going back on their original picks and changing up. Even Mike Greenberg went on the record making the Braves their pick. If you read the article, which I doubt you did, you’d see that I concede to the fact that it’s possible, but right now I wouldn’t place them as a front runner coming out of the gate. Of course anything is possible. The team that ‘I call my own’ is the Cardinals, so of course I know that anything is possible. There was no logical reason why we sould have won the Series well after our ‘prime’ early in the decade.
Wow, I was totally unaware that Gammons has them in the Series… That gives even more credence, because in a lot of people’s minds, what Gammons says is scripture. Name a more credible, respected, man in baseball… Forgive me for not checking your link on the fist response, but 7 of those 13 experts have them winning the East, with an eighth having them win the Wild Card. If you ask me, that’s the majority. Like I stated in the article, and in my first comment, I have them as my sleeper, but nothing more. I think they could sneak in, it’s not a long shot, but it’s not the safe pick either. In other words, I think it could happen, but it probably won’t. I wouldn’t put money on it, while I would on the Mets or Phillies.
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