Boston Can Win Without Manny

With Mark Teixeira landing in Los Angeles, and making the Angels the popular pick to win the American League, all focus has now shifted on one man: Manny Ramirez. It’s become clear that something should be done to get this man out of Boston, but the ideal situation isn’t always the logical one. Buster Olney has him landing in LA with the Dodgers, via a three-way trade with Pittsburgh. History and common sense tell us that this is unlikely to happen, although, with C.C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Teixeira already filling out change of address forms, maybe it isn’t that crazy.

This just might be the year. It isn’t like this is the first time these sides have threatened to split, and given enough chances someone might eventually pull the trigger. Ramirez has been trying to get out of Boston forever. He spent weeks campaigning for a trade in 2005, only to burst into Terry Francona’s office hours before the deadline to declare he wanted to stay. Staying true to form, as soon as the season concluded he reneged on his deadline declaration and again demanded a trade, even going as far to threaten a holdout during Spring Training.

He eventually showed up to late to camp in 2006 with the Red Sox’s blessing, but it was a rocky year. He infuriated Bud Selig by boycotting the All-Star game after receiving the most fan votes, and single handedly destroyed the club’s playoff hopes after sitting out 22 of 30 games during a late-season stretch with a sketchy injury. The ailment was patellar tendinitis, one that many believe he could have played through. During this stretch Ramirez once again requested a trade. 2007 was rather quiet, Manny actually showed up to camp three days early, and for the most part, as far as trade talk goes, all was well until now.

Clearly the motivation is there to make a clean break of things, the Sox are fed with Manny being Manny, and Manny is fed up with the Sox. To say the relationship has been hostile would be an understatement, but the likely-hood of him being moved is rather slim. The only rumor circulating is the aforementioned one which has Ramirez landing in LA in a rather complicated three team deal that would involve many prospects and players. At its core, Jason Bay would land in Boston, and Ramriez would head off to LA.

Many experts believe that all this is, and ever will be, is talk. With Boston only 2 games out of first they don’t think that anything will happen because there is this conception that Boston can’t win without Ramirez’s bat. Everyone thinks that Jason Bay would be a nice fill in, but at the end of the day he couldn’t hold Ramirez’s bat. But who could?

Well, for starters, how about David Ortiz? No, no, we aren’t suggesting that Red Sox front office go down to the clubhouse and tell Manny to pack his bags because he’s been traded to Boston, as Bill Simmons once suggested. But has everyone already forgotten how this team persevered without Ortiz for much of the first half?

When Ortiz went down on May 31 everyone expected the Rays to run away with the division, but the Sox offense actually became more potent, and they instead picked up a game on Tampa Bay while he was recovering from a partially torn tendon sheath in his left wrist (they trailed by a game on May 31 and were tied with Tampa when Ortiz returned on the 25^th of July). It was as if Ortiz never left.

Now consider the numbers before and after Ortiz’s injury:

Batting average: .280 before; .279 after.

Runs per game: 5 before; slightly over 5 after.

Home runs per game: 1.05 before; 1.15 after.

On-base percentage: .353 before; .360 after.

Slugging percentage: .411 before; .450 after.

Record: 34-24 before; 26-19 after.

If they can win without Ortiz, who along with Ramirez is the backbone of this team, then why is it so irrational to think that they couldn’t without Ramirez?

It’s only fair to note that Ortiz has struggled for the better part of the season, and his .261/.354/.491 line is the lowest it’s been since he joined Boston in 2003. But, that’s kind of a moot point considering that Ortiz was playing hurt.

The main reason that Boston continued to excel without Ortiz was due to the production of JD Drew. After being moved up from the sixth spot in the batting order to the third, Drew saw his numbers jump considerably. In the 45 games before the move he hit .282/.383/.409 with four homers and 22 RBI. In the 42 games after he hit .300/.429/.700 with 14 homers and 35 RBI. Not surprisingly, Drew’s production has suffered since being moved back down in the order, where he has hit .200 in the five games following Ortiz’s return.

With Ramirez out of town, it would allow Drew to hit higher in the order, where he’d have Ortiz protecting him. It’s unreasonable to expect him to continue to slug at a .700 clip, but there’s no denying this is where he is comfortable.

Assuming that Drew would be able to produce at a higher level from the three spot, along with the addition of Jason Bay, there’s no reason to believe that Boston wouldn’t be able to smooth things over again. It’s not like Bay is a scrub, he’s currently hitting .284/.377/.523 with 22 homers and 62 RBI, which aren’t very far off of Ramirez’s marks of .301/.399/.533 with 20 homers and 68, and don’t forget, Bay has put up his numbers with Doug Mientiewicz behind him. You know the guy that has one homer this year.

Bay’s no Manny Ramirez, but Manny Ramirez isn’t exactly Manny Ramirez anymore either. He’s 36 now, and the Manny of old never would have ducked a pitcher because he thought he could beat him, he would have embraced the challenge. Still, not many players can hold a candle to Ramirez, but not many can compare to Ortiz either, and Boston never missed him. At the very least Boston would improve defensively without Manny falling all over himself in the outfield.

Chances are the 4 P.M. trading deadline will come and go without fireworks in Boston, but if they fail to make the deal it shouldn’t be because they don’t think they can win without Manny, because they can.