Are the Cardinals for real?

Just last month I was sitting at my laptop watching the Cardinals get carved up by the Brewers.  This was when everyone had Yovanni Gallardo pegged as the next great thing and the Brew Crew was the feel good story of the summer.  It looked like Gallardo brought his best stuff and with each strikeout he put another nail in the coffin for the Cardinals season. 

It was a depressing sight.  Ryan Braun and Cory Hart were tearing up the league while Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen were fading before my eyes.  Gallardo was making guys swing at things that weren’t there while Kip Wells was getting pounded to the tune of five runs in as many innings.  It was over for us, our reign atop the Central ended on July 28, 2007.  We were an old decrepit team and the Brewers were circling overhead like vultures.  I started writing a eulogy for my team after the young phenom struck out his sixth batter. 

I had never felt lower as a Cardinals fan.  We were eight games out of first and falling fast.  Everywhere I went I got the sarcastic “how bout those world champs” comment.  It was embarrassing and I was becoming very cynical.   I fully expected Gallardo to finish out the no-hitter he had going through four innings.  There was a time when I would watch every game until the last pitch because I always believed that something special might happen, but on this day I decided I had nothing left to give.  I turned the game off.  I felt awful for abandoning my team but there was no way I could watch while I was writing their obituary.    

I checked back a couple hours later to see if Gallardo finished off the no-no and saw that something even better happened.  We knocked him out after a four-run bottom of the fifth and went on win the game 9-5.  I wasn’t convinced that our fate had changed, but it was a nice surprise.  I didn’t realize it at the time but this was the turning point of our season. 

Over the next month the Cardinals won 14 games and currently have a 63-64 record, putting them two games out of first.  The Brewers (65-65) lost 16 of 24 which let the Cubs (66-63) sneak into first.  What once looked like a one horse race is now wide open.  It’s the weakest division in baseball so all it’s going to take is for a team to get hot for a couple weeks to steal this thing.  Winning the Central is more about losing the least than winning the most (think about that for a minute).

If the Cardinals want to be considered legit contenders they have to play like the team that posted a 2.89 ERA over their last 15 games, not the one with the fifth worst ERA (4.60).  Their hopes will rely heavily on the return of Mark Mulder, who hasn’t pitched since the beginning of last season.  Will he be the guy that won 16 games and posted a 3.64 ERA?  Or will it take him a few starts to shake off the rust and essentially cost them a few games they can’t afford to spend?

The Cubs are on pace to win 83 games, but if they manage to play up to their potential they could easily win 20 of their last 35, giving them 86 wins.  Meaning the Cardinals would have to finish 24-11 to pass them.  I hate to say it, but it’s not going to happen.

The Cubs offense has been anemic because their once powerful sticks have been silent.  They have a National League low 30 homers since the break and are currently on pace to hit 131.  Soriano, Lee, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, Daryle Ward and Henry Blanco alone hit 164 last year.  That cast has combined for a mere 73 this year.  It’s just a matter of time before someone ignites this offense, and that man is on his way back from the DL.  His name:  Alfonso Soriano.  The superstar they hired to put them over the top. He’s far too good a player to be kept down this long.  All of those guys are, but even if they don’t start hitting the ball their pitching staff is good enough to carry them.  They lead the league in hits and their 4.00 ERA is good enough for third.  Oh yeah, they also rank second in strikeouts and runs.

The Brewers problems are the exact opposite.  They have the sticks but their pitching is horrendous.  Their first three guys, Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano and Ben Sheets, haven’t won a game since June 30.  To be fair Sheets has been on the DL since July 14 but what’s everyone else’s excuse?

 When the rotation started to implode Ned Yost believed that Yovani Gallardo would bail them out, and at first it looked that way, but since the Cardinals roughed him up he hasn’t been the same.  His ERA entering that game was 2.72, but it’s now 4.86.  All the staff has to do is make sure they don’t lose games, the offense has provided a league leading 180 homers and nearly 600 RBI, but they have failed to do this.   

Carlos Zambrano represents a luxury that the other contenders don’t have, an ace.  Chris Carpenter is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss some of next year.  The Brewers are expecting Ben Sheets to return some time this week, but is it too little to late?  The team basically fell apart without him.  If they want to get their swagger back he is going to have to come in and dominate immediately.  If he can be the same guy he was before hitting the disabled list it might be enough to give them the push they need to get over the hump, but I don’t see this happening.  Everyone is starting to gear up for the playoffs and he’s trying to get back in the swing of things.    On paper the Cardinals have no chance.  No team in the modern era has made the playoffs in a season in which they scored less runs than they gave up.  Saint Louis fits this profile.  They’ve scored 568 and surrendered 636, that’s a difference of 68 for those of you following along at home.  They just don’t have the right mix of players to get them into the postseason, even in the pathetic NL Central.  Their rotation is made of two former relievers, Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper; then you have Joel Pinerio, a starter who couldn’t hack it as a reliever while with the Red Sox; and two true starters, Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes, who combined for more than 20 losses before the end of June.  But can you really count out the Cardiac Cardinals?  They made a living off of hot streaks last year, can they do it again?  

Stuff I read today:
College Football is almost here (With Leather)
Eat Lunch with the Monday Night Football Booth (Awful Announcing)
Charlie killed OJ’s wife (Sons of Sam Malone)
Is Gagne tipping pitchings? (Larry Brown Sports)
Schilling to Tampa Bay?  (38 Pitches)