Andruw Jones is a Fraud

It’s hard to believe that it’s been 12 years since Andruw Jones forced his way into our living rooms with his amazing postseason performance against the Yankees.  He burst onto the scene by hitting homers in three consecutive postseason at-bats, a feat matched by only Reggie Jackson, and in the process replaced Mikey Mantle as the youngest player to homer in a World Series game.  Certainly some lofty company for a 19-year-old kid.  It was one of those rare moments when you know that you are witnessing something amazing.  It’s why we watch sports.  It was as if the next great baseball player had descended from the heavens right onto the game’s biggest stage.

Over the next 11 years he would win nine straight Gold Gloves (1998-2006), amass five 100 RBI seasons, and be named to five All-Star teams.  The question is, is he as good as everyone thinks, or has he been getting by off of the hype he created during his first year?  Now that he’s finished up a contract season it seems as if he has been exposed for what he truly is, a decent player with a decent glove. 

He has a nice resume, and until now no one really questioned it.  Such accomplishments forced him into discussions with the games greatest centerfielders, such as Willie Mays, Mantle, and DiMaggio, but was he ever really that good?  Statistically he’s coming off the poorest season of his career.  Posting lows in average, OBP and slugging (.222/.311/.413), and his totals in homeruns, runs, and total bases were the lowest since his first full season in the bigs.  It was clear that he was pressing all year for that contract, and was swinging for homers at the expense of everything else.  The thing is, those numbers aren’t really that far off his career averages, sure he’s collected 100 RBI a few times and hit 50 homers, but as a hitter he’s never earned the acclaim that he garners. He’s hit .300 only once, and has never had a season with a .400 on-base percentage of .600 slugging average, both of which are considered the standard of excellence.  In fact, when he hit 50 homers in 2005, he ended up with the lowest average and OBP of any player to reach the mark.

Even with a declining bat he still has his golden glove, right?  He’s one of the most decorated center fielders in the history of the game, but lately he’s gotten by more on reputation than skill.  The only other players to win more gold gloves at this position are Willie Mays (12) and Ken Griffey Jr (10).  If the streak continues he will come in at second, but this would be a great disservice to his predecessors.

If you begin to look at the numbers you’ll realize he’s not the same guy that used to effortlessly glide around the outfield plucking sure doubles from the sky.  From 1998-2002 there wasn’t a better defensive player in the league.  He racked up more than 400 putouts in each of those seasons, almost hitting 500 in ’99, but he hasn’t reached that mark since.  His zone rating shows that this isn’t a result of fewer opportunities.  During his heyday he was among the league leaders in this stat every year, leading as recently as 2001 but he has been in the bottom five each of the last four years.  Yet somehow he has managed to maintain his Gold Glove streak.  How does that happen?  Well, the difference between first and last is about three flies a week.  So if you aren’t watching him everyday, you’d never notice.

The Braves have announced that they will not pursue him because the price is too high.  Scott Boras usually gets his players what they are worth, and then some, but is he going to be able to pull this off with Jones?  At 30 it appears that Jones is on the downside of his career, but Boras will certainly try to cash in off his past accomplishments.  No way is he going to get top dollar in a market that is crowded with center fielders, so either some general manager is going to get a great bargain after a down year, or he is going to lose his job on this transaction.  Only time will tell, but my money says the golden years are behind him.