A Look at the Central: Will the Cubs Choke, Could Houston Steal the Wild Card?

Just two weeks ago it appeared the Cubs were untouchable, the Brewers were going to march away with the wildcard and the Cardinals hopes had been tagged and bagged, they just needed someone to identify the body. 

There was no reason to think anything else would happen.  The Cubs were 6.5 up in the standings, and the Brewers had a healthy 4.5 game lead on the Cardinals in the wildcard race.  Both teams were surging, while Saint Louis was slowly fading into oblivion.

So what happened?  Suddenly, this race is wide open.  After losing 8 of their last 10, the Cubs are in serious jeopardy of losing the division lead.  Milwaukee has only won three games over the same span, thus allowing the Cardinals to slip back into the picture by merely playing .500 baseball.  But not only that, suddenly the Astros are surging, and after winning nine of their last ten, they are only 4 games back in the wildcard race.

It’s amazing how quickly things can change.  The good news, if you’re a Cubs fan, is that they can afford to lose a few games.  Even if Milwaukee, Saint Louis, or Houston limps by them, they’re still 7.5 games up on the Phillies in the wild card race.  The key, however, is too only allow one of those teams to jump them in the divisional standings. 

Their collapse started when Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hit the disabled list, and with both those guys scheduled to take the hill later this week, most of their troubles should be over.  But, assuming there are some hiccups and Chicago stumbles to the finish line, it’s doubtful that anyone will pass them up.  At this point, they’re a lock to make the playoffs.  They’d have to lose 10 of their last 18, and the Phillies would have to go undefeated to get in.  So breathe easy Chicago, you’re safe. 

I can’t say the same for Milwaukee.  Outside of CC Sabathia, it doesn’t appear that they have a single leg to stand on.  The Cubs have backed themselves into a corner, leaving an opening big enough to drive a blimp through, but once again, this young team has deflated before reaching the finish line.  In their last nine games, all at home, they’ve hit .216/.299/.348 as a unit, while scoring only 24 runs.

This line-up is supposed to feature two of the game’s youngest fine hitters in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, yet both have failed to produce down the stretch.  Fielder’s numbers aren’t even close to what he put up last season when he finished third in MVP voting, but that was mostly due to a horrendous April that saw him hit .250.  From May through July 31 he was solid, hitting .287/.375/.520 with 18 homers and 41 RBI.  But once the calendar changed he faded, hitting .228 for the month of August, which has raised serious doubts about his fitness level.  Somehow, he’s managed to fall even further into the abyss, hitting .167/.265/.200 with only 3 RBI over the last 10 games, and is a large reason for the team’s inability to capitalize on the opportunity they’ve been afforded.

Braun, on the other hand, was a dark horse in the MVP race but, judging from his lack of impact hits over the last 10 games, you can pretty much scratch his name off the short list of contenders.  He’s hitting .273 for the month, but people will look at his single RBI during this collapse and paint him out as the villain.  However, this really isn’t a fair assessment.  There isn’t much he can do when the guys hitting in front of him, JJ Hardy (.216/.275/.514) and Rickie Weeks (.269/.406/.385), aren’t getting on base very often.

With a ten game road trip coming up, they need to get it together quickly or they can kiss their postseason dreams goodbye, and the Matt LaPorta deal will have been made in vein.

That’s not to say that their playoffs hopes are shot, they’ve been in control of the wildcard all season, but it wouldn’t exactly take a Mets-ian collapse for them to miss out on a chance at postseason glory.  The Cardinals (or Phillies) only have to be four games better down the stretch, which at this point is very feasible.  Albert Pujols continues to be the most dominate hitter in the league, and Tommy John talk or not, he’s going to keep on being that player all the way down the stretch.  Their pitching is once again looking like the best in the business, as they’ve posted a 3.17 ERA since August 2, but that may not be enough to fuel them. 

Unfortunately, it doesn’t really matter how good the starters have been because their bullpen has been historically bad, as they’ve lost 30 games and blown 27 saves, both league highs.  Right now, there’s not much reason to think that they will improve down the stretch either.  Chris Carpenter, who is still trying to find his way back from Tommy John surgery, is expected to take over the closer role, but he has no experience here, so it’s a long shot.  At the very least, he should be an improvement over Chris Perez who is 7-11 in save attempts, but it’s still not an ideal situation. 

The team too really look out for is the Astros.  According to the Saint Louis Dispatch they have the best record in the NL Central since the break (34-16), including a 24-8 run over their last 32 games.  Simply put:  they’re the hottest team on the planet right now after winning 12 of their last 13- and that’s without Carlos Lee (.314 28 HR, 100 RBI) and the surprising Ty Wiggington, who was fresh off an August in which he hit .379/.394/.806 with 12 homers and 26 RBI.

It doesn’t really matter, though, because this whole club has been ridiculously hot.  When you’re getting production like they have you can afford to lose an All-Star or two.  Since August 7, they’ve hit a collective .277/.332/.458 with 40 homers and 150 RBI.  It’s not just the sticks, either.  Over that same span their pitchers have posted a ridiculous 3.51 ERA with 246 strikeouts against only 92 walks, and they’ve held opposing hitters to a ridiculous .227/.295/.370 line.

If the 2007 Rockies taught us anything it’s this:  it’s all about getting hot at the right time.   If the Astros keep this up, the wild card is very attainable.  The Phillies are still in the picture, and they’ll be a little harder to get past, but the Brewers are faltering, and the Cardinals have been treading water all year.

You have to love September baseball.