A Four-Way Tie? Oh My!

Just as recently as 15 days ago the Mets were up seven-games over the Phillies, the biggest lead they held during their 138 day tenure atop National League East.  The Phillies began chipping away while the Mets were in the midst of a skid.  Coming into Thursday night that number had shrunk to one and their reign atop the East was in jeopardy.  They should have been safe, at least for today, this was supposed to be an off day before their final home stand against the Marlins.  Instead they had to play a make-up game against the Saint Louis Cardinals.   You couldn’t write this thing better.  Even with the Cardinals way out of contention, their weakest team in a decade on the field, the fans in New York had to be uneasy about this game.  It just wouldn’t be right if Tony LaRussa didn’t have a chance at spoiling their season while they are on the brink of success. 

On paper this game couldn’t have been a bigger mismatch, Joel Pinerio vs. Pedro Martinez.  The Cardinals had a battery out there that had never played together, Albert Pujols was nursing injuries, and the Natural took the bribes and cashed in his integrity, along with his talent, long ago. Over in Philadelphia the Phils were getting ready to finish up against the Braves with a chance to knot things up before they finish up their season against the Nationals.  With rookie Kyle Kendrick on the mound they certainly had a shot, but with John Smoltz’s name penciled in for the visitors it became a long shot.  But with the big three headlining the leagues most productive offense anything was possible.

It was high drama, with each pitch carrying playoff implications. Then the games started and the anxiety got lifted out of the stadium in the first inning as quickly as Ryan Howard’s two-run shot found its way to seats, putting them up a comfortable four to nothing.  Over in New York the Cardinals held a one-run lead in the first.  Then as Pat Burrell deposited a two-run homer of his own into the stands, lifting the Phils up six, the out-of-town scoreboard showed a more important score: 3-0 Cardinals.  The stadium erupted.  Over the course of the next six innings the only number that would change in New York was the inning as the Phillies held on to beat the Braves 6-4.  162 games would come down to who had the better weekend.  Welcome to the National League.

This isn’t just happening in the East, the standings throughout the league are a mess with the names at the top changing hourly.  Trying to figure out the different scenarios is like trying to figure out which Pussy Cat Doll looks the best.   The whole league is in one of tightest playoff pushes that the game has ever seen.  Things got so tight that Major League Baseball scrambled to put together the possible playoff scenarios today after they realized what could happen this weekend, but more on that later.  Coming into the final three games seven teams have a shot at winning a berth into the playoffs.  After tonight that number might have shrunk to six, as Chicago fittingly became a game closer to clinching since both they and Milwaukee lost, but they are still only two up.  Out in the West all three of their contenders picked up wins:  Arizona shutout Pittsburgh 8-0, San Diego beat the Brewers 9-5, and Colorado was beating Los Angeles by seven in the bottom of the eighth as I wrote this.  So that puts Arizona up a game up on San Diego, and two on the Rockies.  Colorado will travel to Arizona to finish up the season.  

In the Central the Cubs will finish up against the Reds, while San Diego travels to Milwaukee.  The Brewers would have to sweep, and hope the Reds do the same to get into the playoffs since they are seven back in the Wild Card race.  Of course we could have a playoff here if Milwaukee wins two and the Cubs lose a pair.  If this were to happen the game would be held Monday.

The Padres currently hold a one game lead on the Mets, Phillies, and Rockies in the Wild Card standings.

You confused yet?  Well it’s about to get a lot worst.  This is where the playoffs before the playoffs come in.  They didn’t include New York and Arizona in the original itinerary because they thought they would run away with their divisions, but now that everything could be knotted up come Sunday things got a lot more complicated.  We could have a few different four way ties among the teams in the East and West.  Then of course there could be a Central tie-breaker to be played out on Monday in Chicago.  Be ready to get a headache.

Four-way tiebreaker system (Both NL East teams and two NL West teams):
Monday:  Mets vs Phillies for the NL East title in Philadelphia
Monday:  NL West playoff
Tuesday:  The two losers face off for the Wild Card.
Here are the various scenarios
Diamondbacks at Philadelphia
Philadelphia at San Diego
Philadelphia at Colorado
Arizona at New York
San Diego at New York
New York at Colorado

Then after one of these or none of these scenarios play out the NLDS starts in the home of the West champ on Friday, and Saturday in the East. The top seeded team gets the Wildcard winner out of one of these senarios.  If a team from the West wins the Wild Card they would play the East represenative.  If it’s a team from the East they will play the division winner from the West.  Then the team from the Central gets the other one. 

Got it?

Updated since Colorado won, but if they would have lost tonight it could have looked like this:  

Five-way tie:
Monday:  Mets vs. Phillies for the NL East title in Philadelphia
Monday and Tuesday:  The Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Padres have a three team playoff to decide the West, with the Rockies having home field advantage for both of their games due to having the best head-to-head record.
Wednesday and Thursday:  The three losing teams would then have a three team playoff to decide the Wild Card winner.  The team with the best head-to-head record against the other two would be granted home field advantage.  If the winner is an Nl West team they will the winner of the NL East tie-breaker and vice versa. 

If three NL West teams and a NL East team have the same record
Monday and Tuesday:  Three team playoff with Rockies having home field advantage to decide the West
Wednesday and Thursday:  The two losers would then have a three team playoff with the NL East team
Arizona-Colorado-Philadelphia: home field goes to Arizona
Arizona-San Diego-Philadelphia: home field goes to Arizona
Colorado-San Diego-Philadelphia: Rockies
Colorado-San Diego-New York:  Rockies
Arizona-San Diego-New York: Arizona
Arizona-Colorado-New York:  Arizona