From the monthly archives:

October 2007

How Scott Boras became the most hated man in baseball

by Nick Underhill on October 22, 2007

boras-pudge.jpgIt’s not often that a team rises to power in baseball with the way the economic system is set up.  Those at the bottom of the food chain simply act as a feeder system for those on top.  When one of those clubs finally amasses enough talent to do something, their success is rarely sustained.  Which is why the Tigers ascendance is so stunning.  They have collected the perfect blend of youth and experience, and they have a plethora of talent in their minor league system.  This isn’t a mere aberration, they are here to stay.

Plenty of people played a part in this turnaround, but no one was more responsible than super-agent Scott Boras.  That’s what he can do for a team, and it’s why he’s considered the most powerful figure in sports.  With more than 140 of baseball’s finest players and prospects under his reign, he’s gained more control than Bud Selig.  If you’re on his good side you have unlimited access to his stable of thoroughbreds. Meaning you can draft who you want, and when one of his guys are on the market maybe you get preference.  Of course a friend like that doesn’t come for free, and believe me he’s not cheap. 

The reach and pull that he has on the game is unprecedented, his presence looms over every front-office in the league like a crucifix in a church, and unfortunately he knows this and has let it get to his head.  Free-agency and agents are a part of the game.  Players should be able to chose their destinations and be paid what they are worth, just like every working man.  Boras has been a catalyst in this process, but it has gotten out of hand.  I don’t care that Alex Rodriguez makes more in an inning than I do in a year.  He’s the main draw in a billion dollar show, we don’t count musicians’ or actors’ money, so why athletes?  What I do have a problem with is the fact that not everyone can afford him.  You never hear football teams saying someone is too rich for us, and if they do, it’s because they are already loaded with superstars.  Same goes for basketball.  If a team has zero talent then they should have a chance to at least enter a bid.  Not in baseball

John Schuerholz, current president and former general manager of the Braves, is very passionate about the issue, and certainly isn’t short on opinions.

“I think it’s obnoxious [to pay a player $30 million a year]. I admire and respect Alex Rodriguez as much as any ball player that has played the game. But for someone to suggest that this is a valid salary level for a professional athlete, no matter what kind of voodoo economics they can do in analyzing the books of MLB, it’s absolutely asinine. It only takes one team to have the wherewithal with that player, and then that player and his representatives think ‘Well, this is what the market value is.’ It’s crazy, and so is that level of compensation.”

A revenue sharing system reflective of that of the NFL would be the proper answer, but Boras’ practices have magnified the league’s economic dereliction and furthered the sense of hierarchy between clubs.  In 2004 Boras’ 65-man stable brought home a collective $230 million- - an average annual salary of more than $3.5 million, well above the league average of $2.5 million.  By driving up the price on players, and creating the first $100 million and $200 million man in the process, he has manufactured a large imbalance between rich and poor teams, distrust between players and owners, and a trend to judge oneself solely by the number of zeroes on their paycheck.  In a nutshell, everything that is wrong with the sport, short of steroid use. 

It’s got to the point that some teams won’t even negotiate with a Boras client.  The Braves have announced that they will not resign the face of their franchise, Andruw Jones, who is coming off the worst season of his career.  The Braves would have liked to keep him around, but, they refuse to pay the $20 million annually that Boras is seeking for his client after he hit .222 this year.  This is a what have you done lately business, and lately Jones has shown little more ability that a minor league hitter.  It’s the same mentality that allows an average player to cash in after a huge contract year.  Schuerholz was looking to come down from the $14 million Jones made this year, or do something incentive laden to protect his investment, but they never made it to the table.

“When he presented us with that kind of offer with Andruw Jones, we found it so ridiculous and obnoxious we didn’t even respond. It didn’t even rise to the level of requiring a response. It’s just idiotic. And I suppose there is this theory of some agents out there, that as long as there is one person that has idiotic thinking, that’s all they need because it drives the market to where they want it to go. But there’s no validity to it at all.”

Several teams share this same mentality and try to circumvent Boras and his notorious books at all costs.  If you haven’t heard of the ‘books’, they contain studies conducted by his staff of former NASA programmers and Ivy League graduates.  The credentials might look impressive on paper, but in reality they hold no weight.   Timing is everything though.  Fresh off a career year in 2004 Boras presented a book on, then 25-year-old, Adrian Beltre predicting a Hall-of-Fame career.  He argued that his career numbers would surpass those of the best third basemen ever:  George Brett, Eddie Mathews, and Mike Schmidt.  That year Beltre hit .334 with 48 homers and 121 RBI, allowing him to sign a five year, $64 million contract.  Prior to that season he had never reached .300, 30, or 100, and he hasn’t since. 

The latest edition of these studies projects that Alex Rodriguez will become the all-time hits and home run leader while playing late into his forties.  It also states that he will produce over a billion dollars for whatever team he signs for through the course of his next contract.

Basically Boras has a working relationship with about ten teams: Detroit, Chicago (NL), Boston, Seattle, Arizona, Kansas City, and either of the LA or New York destinations.  Of course he has done deals with others, but they try to avoid him at all costs.  It is believed that Carlos Lee fired Boras a day after signing with him because he knew that Astros GM Drayton McClane refused to work with him after he got hosed on the Carlos Beltran deal.  It didn’t help that he publicly ridiculed the man following these talks, stating that when he told him that he needed to come up from the $75 million he was offering, McClane’s voice would go up in pitch as he pleaded, “this is a lot of money.”   If nixing a seven year $105 million dollar offer from his hometown club in favor of $119 the Mets gave him wasn’t bad enough, the jokes put it over the top. 

Florida also had a similar experience with Boras, they believed they had a deal in place for Ivan Rodriguez, so they dealt Derrek Lee to the Cubs, only to have Boras pull him to Detroit a year later. 

In 2005 the Marlins were ready to select Craig Hansen from Saint John’s in the first round of the draft.  Owner Jeffrey Loria personally called him prior to the draft, because he knew of Boras’ practices, and told him he was ready to offer him a $1.8 million signing bonus and an immediate call up to the major leagues.  The catch?  He had to leave his ‘advisor’ behind.  Boras was unhappy that they would try to go over him, so he called Loria and flipped out.  The Marlins ended up drafting Chris Volstad, a right-handed pitcher from Palm Beach Gardens High School. 

This is where Boras’ real power lies, in the amateur draft, but depending on how you view the situation he is either a hero or a villain. 

In 1965 Major League baseball instituted the amateur draft to keep from bidding up the value of top prospects.  While the reserve clause bound players to their organization for life upon signing their first contract, amateur players remained free to sign with whichever club offered the most money.  This freedom allowed untested 18-year-olds to sign for more up-from cash than a veteran could earn in ten years.  But after Rick Reinhardt demanded a $205,000 singing bonus from the Angels in1964, MLB decided to eradicate this free market.

The result was the draft, in it’s first year #1 pick Rick Monday signed for $104,000.  In 1982, the year Boras became a sports agent, Shawon Dunston got $150,000, by which time, according to Boras, salaries had increased 10 times and franchise values by 15.

“That’s when we realized, uh-oh, what we have here is a servitude,” explained Boras.  “They have no union.  They have no representation.  They have nothing.  So, this element of my reputation, you have to remember when I came in 1982, this had been static for 17 years.  My reputation was not brought to these teams by Major League contracts’ it was brought by defending young men.”

The next year the charades began with Boras’ first client, Tim Belcher, the Minnestoa Twins top pick.  He advised his client to refuse the standardized $125,000 signing bonus and hold out.  Six months later Belcher was selected by the Yankees in a supplemental draft.  He would never pitch for them, but the mentality was born and the way owners compensate their players would be redefined.

It was admirable then, but his antics have grown out of control. Just through his presence he has been able to manipulate the landscape of baseball, and to an extent, can control where his players go.  The draft allows major league clubs to obtain exclusive negotiating rights to players completing their senior year of high school.  If a player decides to attend college he can then be drafted after his junior year.  The drafting club retains exclusive negotiating rights until one week before the next draft, in which the player may be selected again.  The rules defined draft-eligible players to include those who have never signed a professional contract.  When they were written professional baseball only included Major League Baseball itself, but when the Northern League and other leagues were formed, the rules weren’t amended.  A loophole was found.

This gave Boras a new leveraging chip, one that would take him from a shrewd business man to the most notorious man in baseball.  In 1994 Jason Varitek, a Georgia Tech Senior, was considered the best catcher in the draft.  The Mariners took him in the first round, but refused to meet his advisor’s asking price, so he spurned them and signed with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League.  Boras argued that since he had signed a professional contract he would become an unrestricted free agent one week before the 1995 draft, as the rules state.  The Mariners averted a showdown by signing him a week before the deadline.

He again tried this tactic in 1997 with JD Drew who was made the second overall pick by the Phillies.  Boras demanded $11 million, but was countered with a firm $2.05 million offer.  Like Varitek, Drew took off to the Northern League.  Two months later MLB amended their rules, so he would still be subjected to the draft.  The Cardinals made him their number one pick the next year and signed him for $8.3 million.

Due to this, the draft has become divided between those that can deal with Boras, and those that won’t.  This wouldn’t be so problematic if he didn’t represent many of the top players each year.  In 2004 he ‘advised Jered Weaver, who was considered the top pitching prospect in America, and Stephen Drew, its finest position player.  The Padres had the top pick and many experts had them taking one of these guys, but GM Kevin Towers wasn’t willing to play Borasball.

“I’m not going to touch Weaver or any of Scott Boras’ other clients.  I just can’t deal with the guy, not at this level anyways.”

Weaver ended up going 12th to Angels, and Drew went 15th to the Diamondbacks. 

The same thing happened this year with Rick Porcello, a top pitching prospect, and a consensus top-five talent.  Many questioned his signability due to the Boras factor, and as a result 15 other hurlers were selected ahead of him.  Porcello ended up going to one of Boras’ favorite teams, the Tigers, with the 27th pick.

It’s no so much the shrewdness of this man, owners can respect that, it’s the fact he is running baseball from his office.  The MLB draft is a crapshoot at best, but shouldn’t teams such as the Devil Rays and Pirates be able to address their needs with the best available option?  At least in other sports when you are consistently bad you have hope in the form of the draft, and eventually you amass enough talent to become relevant again.  Boras has eliminated this from baseball by plucking all of the top talent each year and influencing where they go with his mere presence.  If it doesn’t happen, he’ll take them away and that team will be stuck with nothing, so why even try? 

Actually, that’s where the owners are wrong, well, at least some of them.  With the new BATNA- or Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement- teams are now granted a compensatory pick in the same position in the following year’s draft.  This is why three Boras Clients went in the top seven this year, if the Devil Rays wouldn’t have been able to agree to terms with David Price, the top pick in the draft, they would get the number 2 pick next year.  So, the BATNA gives them the comfort of knowing that they can replace him with equal value next year, or they could possibly draft him again considering he would be back in the pool.  Also, with a firm August 15th deadline, players can’t drag out this process, and it puts the pressure on the agent to get a deal done.

In the case of Porcello the BATNA actually gave Boras more leverage since he slipped so far in the draft.  The deeper into the draft you get the value of the compensatory pick drops.  Porcello was a consensus top five pick, so if he doesn’t sign the Tigers wouldn’t get a comparable player.  So if the Tigers don’t pony up with what he is asking for, they lose out and Porcello just waits a year or two and get’s what he wants (that is if he is as good against 20 year-olds as he is versus 16 year-olds).  This is why he was able to demand the richest contract ever for a high school player signed out the draft, a $7.3 million heist.

In other words this man can not be stopped.  The Marlins tried to go over his head and failed, many teams have drafted his players and lost out.  Something needs to be done. No matter what happens he always finds a loophole and a way to exploit it.  The BATNA will only work if these clubs hold strong.  Each of his clients took negotiations to the last minute.  Everyone knows that he isn’t bluffing, they need to hold strong and show him the same to get the respect needed to survive.  Otherwise BATNA means nothing.   

Maybe if the owners wouldn’t have been trying to screw the players a figure like Boras wouldn’t have emerged, but with the way things were it was just a matter of time.  These things go in cycles, the owners took it to the extreme, but now it’s Boras.  He views himself as a Robin Hood-type-figure, but he’s turned into a robber baron just like the Rockefellers.  This man has plagued baseball for the last decade.  Get him out of baseball, or change the rules, because the system in place has been exploited.

His stature is only going to rise in the coming months when he again makes Alex Rodriguez the richest man in baseball.  His presence will loom over the World Series as everyone speculates over whether or not his top client will opt out of his contract during the ten day window following the event, and where he will go from there.  Boras will smile, as he always does, because he knows something that we all don’t.  All it takes is for one to say it’s fair, and the rest will follow.  All the owners have to do is hold strong, just one time, but that would never work, and Boras knows it.  They’re all too greedy, whether it be for money or wins, and a guy like Rodriguez is irresistible.  So again Boras will win, he always does. 


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Put me in coach

by Nick Underhill on October 20, 2007

tito.jpg

Usually when you find yourself alive on the eve of the World Series, chances are you’re doing something right.  Your line-up is strong and your bullpen’s stacked properly.  All you can do is let it ride and hope you pick up a game or two as you head down the river.  Usually.

That’s why this year’s ALDS is so perplexing.  It has become painfully obvious to anyone watching these games that Eric Wedge and Terry Francona are looking for a full-house when they are already holding a flush.  Both of them could strengthen their chances if they would just rearrange what they already have.

Too often the blame falls on the shoulders of the manager when a team doesn’t perform in the postseason, but when he isn’t using his best players what else can you do?  Sometimes things aren’t always black and white, players are being paid big money, and there is pressure to play them.  God forbid someone’s ego gets hurt.  We all saw what happened with Scott Rolen and Tony LaRussa last year when he was pulled from the line-up in the NLDS, but look where the Cardinals ended up. 

When things aren’t working you have to switch up and go in another direction.  If your car was stuck in the snow you wouldn’t just sit there and spin your tires, someone would get out and push.  For the Red Sox that man is Jacoby Ellsbury.  JD Drew has turned it around in the Divisional Series, but they have failed miserably with Coco Crisp at the wheel.  I understand that Drew is a big money player, but who cares about Crisp.  One of these players is going to be out the door to make room for Ellsbury’s arrival next season, so why wait?  There is no need to be loyal, especially when Crisp has hit .161 with a 9:1 K/BB ratio this postseason.  He has a nice glove, but so does Ellsbury, anyways, in a short series things like that seem to go out the window.  The Cardinals got by last year with Chris Duncan making an idiot out of himself in left.

If Ellsbury could provide the spark this team needs it would also allow them to move the struggling Dustin Pedroia out of the lead-off spot.  Maybe he will swing his way out of this slump as he becomes used to pressure of the postseason, but that’s not something you can bank on and a shakeup couldn’t hurt.  If Ellsbury goes 0-4 would it really matter?  It’s not like he can do much worst than Crisp.  Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll see this move judging from Francona’s remarks.

“I think part of my responsibility is, when you think you know what’s right to stay with what’s right.  If you go away from what got you there, I think that’s cheating the players.  I don’t want to do that.  There’s no guarantees in anything we do, but we believe in it, and that’s my responsibility.”

I hate to say this, but this is the same reasoning that got McNamara in trouble in 1986 when he decided to keep Bill Buckner on the field so he could celebrate with his teammates.  Would Dave Stapleton have got to that ball?  We’ll never know, and I’ll leave that debate to someone else, but I think they have better odds with the guy that isn’t injured.

ewedge.jpgMaybe the bullpen order in Cleveland doesn’t matter so much when Boston isn’t using their best players. I don’t think Wedge feels the urgency since they have coasted up until this point, but this logic is faulty at best. All he has to do is look across the field to be reminded of how quickly a playoff lead can vanish.  Suprisingly, he’s gotten away with using Joe Borowski against Boston, but the fact that he has been relatively perfect so far should make everyone even more uncomfortable.  Remember, we are talking about a guy that posted a 5.07 ERA during the regular season.  Each time he escapes unscathed it skews the odds further against him.  It’s only a matter of time before he breaks down and blows a lead with his late inning theatrics. Wedge owes it to these fans to go with Rafeal Betancourt when the game is on the line.  They have been waiting 59 years for this, use the guy that has allowed only 3 runs in his last 27 appearances, not that one that has given up 14 in the same span.

It baffles me that he converted 45 of this 53 save opportunities, the same way it does when looking at Todd Jones’ numbers.  This success rate explains the loyalty, but sticking with what got you here doesn’t win championships.  Using your best guys in pressure situations does, and I can’t think of a more critical situation than this.  The Indians are on the brink right now, could you imagine if they lost a ninth inning lead because Wedge neglected to utilize his best weapons?  Why would you expose yourself like that?  The only thing worst would be pitching Eric Gagne with a lead in game seven.

There’s no guarantee that Drew and Coco won’t go a collective 8-for-8 tonight, or that Borowski will continue to be perfect this series, but history tells us that it is unlikely.  As a manager all you can do is field your best team and hope that it all falls in place, without Ellsbury on the field and Betancourt on the mound in the ninth, both of these teams are lowering their odds.  Everyone is searching for a leg-up in October, for some reason these teams are stepping back.


Providence Journal reports that Ellsbury will replace Crisp in tonight’s game 

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Kobe for Dirk? It Works

by Nick Underhill on October 17, 2007

dirk-kobe-2.jpg Is Jerry Buss a complete moron?  He’s known for five months that he had to make a move to keep Kobe happy, and instead he sat back and waited for this situation to implode.  When you have the best player alive, you have to do what it takes to please him.  It’s like dating a supermodel.  First and foremost, if you want to keep her you do whatever it takes to make her smile.  If that means maxing out all of your credit cards or taking out a loan, that’s what you do.  She hates your parents?  They’re dead to you.  If you have to pull out your old Huffy so she can have a Acura parked in the driveway, so be it.  Why?  Because how many chances do you get to parade around with Petra Nemcova on your arm?  Well, unless you’re Tom Brady, but for the rest of us it’s a one in a life-time shot. 

I won’t blame Buss for losing Shaq, but all he had to do with Bryant is sign a couple impact players, even one would have sufficed.  At least then he could have pointed to Rashard Lewis or Chauncey Billups and say I’m trying.  You never heard their name come up in discussions, well except during the first round of the Kevin Garnett sweepstakes, but besides that they weren’t involved in any rumors.  Did Buss think everyone was bluffing as he was off touring Europe?

The Lakers had no intentions of dealing Bryant and have made it obvious they would prefer to hang onto him, but they aren’t willing to do what it takes.  Deal Andrew Bynum, shop Lamar Odom.  At least give the impression you are putting forth some type of effort, don’t disrespect this guy after all he has done for this organization.  Unfortunately it’s too late for that.  There’s no time for charades.  With each practice Bryant sits out it becomes more apparent that something must be done. The problem is, even if they did want to trade him, how do you get a fair return?  By my count there are three players that would provide a fair exhange:  LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Dwight Howard. 

The situation grows worst because Kobe has the only active no-trade clause in the NBA. As we all know he wants to go to Dallas or Chicago.  If I’m Buss or GM Mitch Kupchak, Chicago’s out.  They have a talented roster, but lack individual talent.  That leaves Dallas and Dirk Nowitzki as the only feasible option.  Which raises the question: why are Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson dragging their feet?  They have a nice squad, but they’ve went as far as they can with the players they have.  Let’s be real for a minute, Dirk is talented, but he’s not even in the same realm as Kobe.  Don’t they realize that they have the upper-hand here and could potentially high-jack the NBA title from the Spurs? 

Nowitzki is a great player, unique would probably be the best adjective, but he’s not Kobe.  It’s the best situation for the Lakers, and even better for the Mavs.  The numbers even work, Kobe is scheduled to make about $17 million this year while Dirk comes in about $2 million shy of that.  We all know that Cuban has an emotional attachment to Nowitzki, but this is business, and he should be able to see this is what will be best for it.  There’s no room for emotions.

The seven-footer has great work ethic, talent, and he led the Mavericks from their darkest era into a perennial contender.  What’s not to love?  I don’t blame Cuban, this guy symbolizes everything that he worked for, but this is as far as the train goes.  It’s time to move on and take it to the next level.  Bryant is that guy.  He won’t disappear in the big moments or even be accused of being soft.  He certainly won’t get outplayed in the Finals or let his team disappear against an 8-seed.  Sure, he’s never won an MVP like Dirk, but do we really need the league to confirm what our eyes tell us on a night-to-night basis? 

How many chances do you get to acquire the best player alive, in his prime, at a discount?  It doesn’t happen very often.  Everyone in the league should be jumping from behind their desks to get this guy, he’s a once in a lifetime talent and the closest answer to Jordan.  He packs stadiums, sells jerseys, and more importantly he’s a winner.  Sure, he’s been in the league forever, but he’s only 29-years-old.  By my estimation that leaves about eight good years, maybe even more if he can adjust as legs begin to go.  Remember MJ was 34 when he retired the second time and was still at the top of his game.  He took four years off and still averaged 22.9 and 20 when he came back.  It’s hard to know if that lay-off helped or hurt him physically, but he could still play. 

It’s the only move that can work.  The Lakers get an MVP to fill the void, someone to build around in the mean-time, and the Mavs get their trophy.  It’s 75% off, but at least Buss isn’t getting took to the cleaners.  Well, at least not completely.


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Is Adrian Peterson the best back in the NFL?

by Nick Underhill on October 15, 2007

peterson1.jpgForget about 2006, passing on Vince Young and Reggie Bush doesn’t seem like such a big deal anymore, and at least seven teams didn’t look over those guys.  2007 is the one that will live on for years to come.  Historians will mark the date as the demise of each of these franchises.  The once in a lifetime talent arrived, it was just late.

Adrian Peterson didn’t come into the league with the fanfare of his predecessors, mostly because he spent the better part of his last collegiate season on the shelf with injuries, but we all knew he was special from day one.  So why were so many teams willing to pass on him?  It’s not like any were locked in at running back.  He was tailor made for the NFL, unlike Bush who beat guys to the outside, Peterson hit the holes and rammed it down defenses throats.  His style and fragility scared a lot of people, maybe his time will be limited because of his hard knock style, but wouldn’t you rather have the best running back in the league for six years than a mediocre one for ten?

Through the first six weeks of the season Peterson has been the best back in the NFL, and in the process he has been piecing together the best rookie season of all-time.  The fact that he leads the league in yards is simply stunning, especially considering that the one of the all-time greats, LaDanian Tomlinson, is eighty yards back.  Think about that for a second.  That’d be like Brady Quinn out-gunning Peyton Manning through the first six weeks.  It’s just not supposed to happen.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Peterson has eclipsed LT, but he’s certainly been more productive thus far.  Not only does he lead everyone in yards, he’s also tops in yards per carry and yards per game (125), not to mention he’s third in touchdowns.  So if you still aren’t convinced, let me ask you this, knowing what you know now: if you could go back and re-do your fantasy draft and you had the first pick, who would you take?  Yeah, thought so.

Perterson has shown that he has the talent and ability, but the question now is whether or not he can keep it up.  There have been some impressive seasons by rookie backs, but none were finer than Barry Sanders 1989 debut.  That year he rushed for 1,470 yards, at a 5.3 clip, with 14 touchdowns, both good enough for second overall. Tomlinson also had an impressive premier in 2001 when he picked up 1,206 on the ground to go along with 10 scores.  That’s some lofty company, but through each player’s first six games, Peterson has been better.

Player Carries Yards YPC TD
Sanders 67 354 5.28 3
Tomlinson 152 544 3.58 7
Peterson 96 607 6.3 5

Clearly this proves nothing, but if Peterson stay’s healthy the sky’s the limit.  The fact that we are discussing his name in such company speaks volumes in itself.  There’s no question that he is already the best young back in the league, a Reggie Bush comparison seems comical at best.  Peterson has already outgained his rookie total (565) in a third of a season.  Many would consider Bush to be his superior in the passing game, but so far the statistics tell a different story, as Peterson has picked up nine more yards through the air.

This is the NFL’s answer to the Sam Bowie debacle.  The Browns got their line-man to block for Jamal Lewis, the Lions got their receiver, and Oakland got a question mark, but the Vikings got potential.  Not potential in the sense that they might have something.  They already know they do.  They have the potential to build around a true franchise keystone.  How many teams have that?  


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Andruw Jones is a Fraud

by Nick Underhill on October 14, 2007

jones_andruw0930.jpgIt’s hard to believe that it’s been 12 years since Andruw Jones forced his way into our living rooms with his amazing postseason performance against the Yankees.  He burst onto the scene by hitting homers in three consecutive postseason at-bats, a feat matched by only Reggie Jackson, and in the process replaced Mikey Mantle as the youngest player to homer in a World Series game.  Certainly some lofty company for a 19-year-old kid.  It was one of those rare moments when you know that you are witnessing something amazing.  It’s why we watch sports.  It was as if the next great baseball player had descended from the heavens right onto the game’s biggest stage.

Over the next 11 years he would win nine straight Gold Gloves (1998-2006), amass five 100 RBI seasons, and be named to five All-Star teams.  The question is, is he as good as everyone thinks, or has he been getting by off of the hype he created during his first year?  Now that he’s finished up a contract season it seems as if he has been exposed for what he truly is, a decent player with a decent glove. 

He has a nice resume, and until now no one really questioned it.  Such accomplishments forced him into discussions with the games greatest centerfielders, such as Willie Mays, Mantle, and DiMaggio, but was he ever really that good?  Statistically he’s coming off the poorest season of his career.  Posting lows in average, OBP and slugging (.222/.311/.413), and his totals in homeruns, runs, and total bases were the lowest since his first full season in the bigs.  It was clear that he was pressing all year for that contract, and was swinging for homers at the expense of everything else.  The thing is, those numbers aren’t really that far off his career averages, sure he’s collected 100 RBI a few times and hit 50 homers, but as a hitter he’s never earned the acclaim that he garners. He’s hit .300 only once, and has never had a season with a .400 on-base percentage of .600 slugging average, both of which are considered the standard of excellence.  In fact, when he hit 50 homers in 2005, he ended up with the lowest average and OBP of any player to reach the mark.

Even with a declining bat he still has his golden glove, right?  He’s one of the most decorated center fielders in the history of the game, but lately he’s gotten by more on reputation than skill.  The only other players to win more gold gloves at this position are Willie Mays (12) and Ken Griffey Jr (10).  If the streak continues he will come in at second, but this would be a great disservice to his predecessors.

If you begin to look at the numbers you’ll realize he’s not the same guy that used to effortlessly glide around the outfield plucking sure doubles from the sky.  From 1998-2002 there wasn’t a better defensive player in the league.  He racked up more than 400 putouts in each of those seasons, almost hitting 500 in ’99, but he hasn’t reached that mark since.  His zone rating shows that this isn’t a result of fewer opportunities.  During his heyday he was among the league leaders in this stat every year, leading as recently as 2001 but he has been in the bottom five each of the last four years.  Yet somehow he has managed to maintain his Gold Glove streak.  How does that happen?  Well, the difference between first and last is about three flies a week.  So if you aren’t watching him everyday, you’d never notice.

The Braves have announced that they will not pursue him because the price is too high.  Scott Boras usually gets his players what they are worth, and then some, but is he going to be able to pull this off with Jones?  At 30 it appears that Jones is on the downside of his career, but Boras will certainly try to cash in off his past accomplishments.  No way is he going to get top dollar in a market that is crowded with center fielders, so either some general manager is going to get a great bargain after a down year, or he is going to lose his job on this transaction.  Only time will tell, but my money says the golden years are behind him.


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