October 2007

The World Series is one of America’s great traditions.  Its history has been woven into the fabric of this country.  Players dream of the chance to one day be a part of the Fall Classic, it’s the reason they all play the game.  It’s the zenith of all of their efforts.  Many come and go and are never afforded the opportunity to perform on the game’s biggest stage.  Simply out of respect for those that are fortunate enough to make the Series all affairs involving personnel are traditionally put on hold until the banners rise.  This should have been a time of celebration for Boston and Colorado, but instead it was eclipsed by Alex Rodriguez and his stack of money.   This is a man that truly believes he is bigger than the game.   He couldn’t be on hand Sunday night to receive an award from Hank Aaron, yet there was enough time for him to announce during the early innings of Sunday’s game that he would forego the final four years and $72 million left on his contract and enter the free-agent market.  I hope everyone was paying attention because this was a commentary on Rodriguez’s character and should be taken as a warning of what’s to come for whoever signs him.

At the end of the day I don’t blame him for leaving New York.  I would have sprinted out of town too.  One day the fans would love him, the next they hated him.  The press constantly followed him around, stooping so low as to place pictures of his alleged mistress on the cover of the Post.  That’s no way to live, and even if he brought some of it on himself, I believe that he genuinely felt under appreciated and over exploited.  I would have left the money on the table too, but did he have to do it during the World Series?  He had ten days following the conclusion of the Series to announce his decision.  It couldn’t wait?  He came off like a child tugging at his mother’s shirt tails while chanting look at me.  It was completely classless.  He couldn’t even sit down with Brian Cashman like a  man and tell him face-to-face that he would be opting out of his contract.  He didn’t even call.  He sent him a text message.   

I hope people are paying attention, because wherever he goes he is going to have to be the center of attention at all times.  At all of his previous stops his teammates would marvel at his talent as well as his insecurity.  When you sign A-Rod it isn’t as simple as handing him a bat and saying play ball.  No, someone needs to be there to fawn over him at all times.  He has to dominate the clubhouse, and craves the headlines. Basically he thinks he is bigger than the coach, his teammates, and everything else associated with the name on the front of the jersey.  It’s not that he just wants to be, he has to be ‘it’ to perform well.  It’s like your 110 pound girlfriend asking if her butt looks big, she knows it doesn’t, but she needs to be told… constantly. 

This is exactly why it didn’t work out in New York.  It wasn’t his show.  He had Derek Jeter and the rest of the multi-million dollar men to compete with.  He just didn’t have the psyche to play there.  He’s a guy that values personal milestones over all else.  No one in that town cares that he hit 173 homers and collected 513 RBIs while in pinstripes, and what is certain to be two MVP awards.  It didn’t bring them a ring, so he’s bum like the rest of them.

Still he never should have gotten away. Don’t look now but the Yankees organization is imploding under the baby Steinbrenners’ watch. Say what you want about their father, but he never would have let their affairs transpire the way they have.  Maybe he is a shrewd business man, but he always got what he wanted, and never would have let what he had get away if he still wanted.  He didn’t care about the public’s perception.  Right or wrong, every decision he made was fueled by his desire to win, and for that I respect him. It’s only been a few weeks since the Brothers Steinbrenner took over and already I am questioning their ethics.  Everything they have done has seemed to have a condescending undertone to it.  It was clear that they wanted Joe Torre out of town, but instead of just letting him go like their father wanted, they patronized the citizens of New York by putting on a display filled with smoke and mirrors.  Have things gotten so bad there that money no longer matters?  In less than two weeks they have been spurned by a man that was to be made the highest paid coach in the game (although he would have been taking a pay-cut), and now by  Rodriguez, who was set to receive the richest contract in the history of American sport.

He never would have talked about extending A-Rod, he would have just done it.  Instead the Yankees told the press they were going to make an offer, but they never made it to table.  They had all year to make an offer, why did they drag their feet until it was too late?  Boras is about the bottom line, everyone knows that, if you give him a chance to drive up the price he’s going to take it and exploit it.  Now, if they want to keep Rodriguez around they are going to have to bid on the open market, and instead of having Texas pick up some of the tab they are going to have to pick up the whole thing.

Apparently his days in New York are done as the Yankees have previously said they will would persue him if he opted out.  It doesn’t really matter either way.  Someone is going to sign him.  He’s the best player alive.  I just hope they’re ready to be entrapped by his pursuit of Barry Bonds’ homerun record for the next however many years, just as the Giants were with Barry Bonds.  They better be prepared for the traveling soap-opera that he creates wherever he goes. Remember how he cried when Jeter didn’t invite him over for a pajama party?  It might seem petty to outsiders, but these are the things that will send him into a slump.  If Bonds was a clubhouse cancer, than he’s like a nagging cold that you just have to deal with.  It won’t tear apart a team, but he will constantly whine and air his problems out in the press.  Most of all, I hope they realize that he has no respect for the game.  Just because he never got to World Series doesn’t mean that he can desecrate all that it stands for.   

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World Series Links
The Red Sox Win! (Awful Announcing)
Lowell was named the MVP, but was Papelbon robbed? (FanHouse)
Keep Lowell in Boston! (Red Sox Monster)
Feel it Again (Surviving Grady)
Time to Riot (Sons of Sam Malone)
Red Sox:  Team of the Decade (Larry Brown Sports)
World Series Photo Montage (Babes Love Baseball)

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Any story written on Grady Sizemore is almost certain to include the word potential.  The two go together like college and Beer Pong.  He’s been on the brink of stardom for two years and this was supposed to be the season he cashed in and took that final step.  Instead he maintained in the categories he shouldn’t have, and regressed in the one’s that made us say ‘wait ‘til next year’.  We’re still left muttering that phrase, but before it was in a positive manner, now it comes out in a tone reserved for bargains with God, and is accompanied with a scratch of the head. 

You see, after leading the majors in runs (134) and extra-base hits (92), and the American League in doubles (53) in 2006, he wasn’t only supposed to take the next step.  He was supposed to hurdle everyone and land at the front of the pack.  Some of the finest minds in baseball, including Peter Gammons, had this guy pegged as the favorite to win the MVP award this season.  With such high standards implemented it is easy to say that Sizemore crashed and burned, but that would be unfair.  His .277/.390/.462 line, 24 homeruns, and 78 RBI were right on par with his career averages, as were his 155 strikeouts.  Depending on how you look at it, his 34 doubles, 39 extra-base hits and 290 total bases were either way down, or back to normal.  Personally, I don’t think he will ever achieve these marks again and chalk-up the large influx as a fluke.  Ever since he broke into the league in 2005 Sizemore has been expected to force his name onto the short list of all-time great centerfielders, but I just don’t see it happening. 

The fact that Sizemore regressed shouldn’t be what is most frightening to those in the Cleveland region.  No, what should really scare them is that JD Drew is listed as one his most comparable players on Baseball Prospectus.  As a statistical analysis this is dead-on, through the early part of both players careers they have walked a very similar path, but this hits on more levels than even they realize.  The key for Sizemore is to break off and head in another direction.  One that Drew never found.

Drew was the Grady Sizemore of the late ‘90’s.  The  All-American Boy with a sweet swing that conjured images of a young Mickey Mantle trotting across the outfield.  By his second season (2000) it was clear that he was on the path to success, he hit .295/.401/.479 with 18 homers, showing glimpses of what he would be capable of in the future.  The following season he missed 53 games, but he still managed to make the leap we are waiting for from Sizemore. The debate was no longer about his potential after he hit .323/.414/.613 with 27 homers, and 73 RBI.  The scrolls were now writing about MVP Plaques and Hall of Fame inductions and they couldn’t wait to see how he followed up his sophomore effort.  Instead of building on his success, in 135 games of service, he regressed, hitting .252/.349/.429 with 18 homers and 56 RBI.  Through the next five years Drew would show glimpses of brilliance, but he has been little more than an above average player.  He’s had a few great seasons, including a sixth place finish in the 2004 MVP vote, but he has been more like the guy in 2000 than the one in 2001.  Sound familiar?

He has suffered through a series of injuries throughout his career, but like many blue chip prospects before him, he peaked at an early age.  I’m not suggesting that this is what’s happened with Sizemore, it’s far too soon to close the book on him, but it certainly is a possibility.  It would explain why he has failed to make any progress since his rookie season and seemingly has leveled off.  Take away his obscene amount of doubles last season and he has basically been the same player through and through.  Looking at his numbers through his first three seasons I am more inclined to think that he is going to be more of a .280/.375/.470, 25 homerun, 75 RBI guy, than the .330, 40/40, 100 RBI player that everyone expects.  There’s nothing wrong with that if he continues at this pace he will be one of the better players in baseball.  He’ll probably never develop the power needed to slide down in the order, or win any MVP trophies, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be effective throughout his tenure.  I’m sure Cleveland will gladly sign his check if he provides them with the same production year in and year out.  Fans will heckle him and writers will call him a bust, but that’s shortsighted.

This is what we do, not just in baseball, but every sport.  Every couple years we find the next Mick, before Grady it was Jeff Francouer, and he too has failed to live up to the hype.  The only thing holding him back is his hack-and-wack approach.  He’s proved that he can reach the holy standards of .300, 30, and 100, but if he doesn’t become the best outfielder in the game many will write him off as a failure, which isn’t fair.  Many already have.  If he could find a way to be more selective at the plate he could easily elevate his game to the next level.

I fear this same thing will happen to Sizemore.  Just let the kid play ball and let nature take it’s course.  If he never takes the next step would it really be that big of a deal?  He’s still better than 80% of the players in this league.

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Boston’s rolling right now, but their momentum could be quickly derailed when the venue shifts to Colorado for the next three games if Terry Francona benches the wrong guy.  There’s no clear cut answer here.  Do you bench the player that is in the process of piecing together a postseason for the ages because he’s a defensive liability?  Or do you sit one of the guys that is solid everywhere, but spectacular nowhere?  These are the questions that Tito is going to have to ask himself over the next two days prior to filling out the line-up card.  The wrong decision could knock Boston off the tracks.

There would be no discussion here if David Ortiz was a little more mobile.  Compound that with the fact that is suffering from a knee injury, and this discussion might already be over.  Regardless of this, how do you omit his bat from the line-up?  I don’t think you can without hurting the team, what Francona has to figure out is if his bat outweighs his glove over the course of 9 innings.  He could always leave him on the bench early in games and insert him in later innings if they need an offensive spark, or start him and remove him late for a better glove.

Ortiz picked up 48 innings at first base this season through interleague play (with Lowell and Youks splitting time at third), posting a perfect fielding percentage, but this might be an opportune time to give him some rest with a game to spend (if there is such a thing in the World Series).  In the 2004 World Series they chose to start Ortiz at first and he made a game saving play on a cross diamond throw to nail Jeff Suppan at third, so he has shown some ability in the past.

Then again, in 2004 the decision was either sit Kevin Millar or Ortiz, this year it isn’t that simple.  Kevin Youkilis’ versatility makes the decision a lot harder.  With the ability to play four positions the possibilities are basically limitless.  Before JD Drew started hitting the best move would have been placing him on the bench with Youkilis moving to right to open up a spot.  With a tough lefty in Jeff Francis taking the mound in game five this is a possibility.  If Francona decides to keep Youkilis and Ortiz in the line-up the most likely scenario would be a shift to third, but if he wants optimize his offensive pop and get creative the options exist.

It’s almost certain that this will never play out, but it could so we’ll discuss it.  It’s clear that Julio Lugo is the weakest offensive player on this team, so we place him on the bench and shift Dustin Pedroia to short, where he has played most of his career.  Then Youkilis slides over to second, where he has logged nine career games, to clear a place for Ortiz at first.  Offensively it’s brilliant, but who knows how mobile Youkillis really is at second, and with Ortiz at first, he would have to have Superman-type range.  This has actually been discussed on talk radio, and even though it is borderline ridiculous, and something you would probably only do in a video-game, it is interesting.

Even though he is the most versatile player on the roster, in my opinion, if someone has to sit it should be Youkilis.  He struggled through the middle of the season, and even though it seems that he is back to form, Ortiz and Lowell are invaluable assets in the line-up.  Defensively I don’t think you can remove Lowell either.  With strong right handed pull hitters like Holliday, Atkins, and Torrealba in the Rockies’ line-up you can’t afford to have someone less experienced at the hot corner.  I don’t want to minimize the importance of first either, Helton, Hawpe and Matsui are nothing to overlook, but I think that Ortiz has to get the nod here due to his offensive prowess.  Pedroia has decent range and can over compensate a bit for his mobility. 

Either way you have to sacrifice something, so with Ortiz and Lowell you get the most out of your line-up.  If this is the case, the question you now have to ask is who hits second?  Do you move Drew up or Ellsbury?  The questions are endless, the possibilities limitless, I guess we’ll find out this, and more, in Colorado.

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There’s only one October, but who thought that it was going to be like this?  This is supposed to be a showcase of baseball’s finest, but with the emergence of the Red Sox it’s apparent that they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition.  Whether or not this is a mere aberration will be revealed as the World Series plays out, but it looks like Cleveland woke a sleeping giant.  The way they eliminated the Indians and deflated the hopes of a whole region was almost cruel and unruly.  It was like watching Ivan Drago kill Apollo Creed in Rocky 4.  Can Colorado rise up and defeat them, or has Boston already won the battle?

Game one didn’t do anything to dispel these thoughts.  Blame it on the lay-off if you wish, but after one inning it was clear that Colorado was next on Boston’s hit list.  Josh Beckett made their hitters look foolish by striking out the side and JD Drew led the way with an RBI double in the bottom half of the inning.  It was all hugs and high-fives from there as they scored a record setting 13 runs in the series opener. By the fifth inning. 

They also set tied the World Series record for doubles in a game.  Out of everything, maybe the most amazing feat was their two-out rally in the fifth inning where they hit through the order.  In 527 World Series games this had never happened before. 

This isn’t the same team that was on the brink of elimination a few weeks ago. At that point Dustin Pedroia was struggling through his first postseason and was hitting .172, since the team’s turnaround he is 8-for-18 with two homers, three doubles, and six RBI.  Oh, and the fans don’t boo anymore when JD Drew comes to the plate, they’re chant his name now, and why not, the guy has been a catalyst for this offense over the last four games as well. Now with Coco Crisp on the bench and Jacoby Ellsbury in center, their foes have little left to exploit.

With the emergence of these players this is the most potent offense in baseball.  Even  David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, whose names are now littered throughout the postseason record books, have taken it to a whole new level.  If it seems like these guys are get on base every time they come to the plate, it’s because they do.  Out of their combined 100 plate appearances they’ve reached safely 58 times.  Don’t forget about Josh Beckett either, the best big game pitcher in the major leagues, who has been Gibson-esque with his 1.20 ERA and 10.5 K/9 ratio.

This is the hottest team we’ve seen, since, well the 2004 Red Sox.  The fact that the Rockies haven’t lost a game since September 28, all-of-the sudden pales in comparison to the Red Sox 43-6 trouncing of their opponents over their last four games. No team has even reeled off three games in which they scored in double figures in postseason play, and their run differential in this span is an American League record.  This isn’t supposed to happen in October. Especially when two of the pitchers you faced are legitimate Cy Young candidates.

Can anyone beat them, or is Colorado in for more of the same?  They have been resilient all year, which is why we are watching them, but the regular season doesn’t matter come playoff time.  If it did then Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia would have been able to pitch in the ALCS.  So we are left looking at history.  If it means anything, it tells us that the Rockies still have a shot.  In 1960 the Yankees’ defeated the Pirates by scores of 16-3, 10-0 and 12-0, but they ended up winning the Series in seven games.  In 1996 Atlanta beat the Yankees in New York 12-1 in Game 1 and 4-0 in Game 2, but dropped the next 4.  

Unfortunately, I don’t think the Rockies are the ‘96 Yankees, and I don’t think Bill Mazeroski will be showing up with a miracle homerun anytime soon . It’s unfortunate, because I think the Rockies got hurt by that lay-off more than we’ll ever know.  When you’re team’s playing like that you want to get on the field everyday, sometimes twice.  If the Red Sox would have swept the Indians then we’re talking about how they lost their steam.  I don’t think this thing will end in a sweep, Colorado’s the best team in the NL (or at least it’s representative), but I’ll be suprised if they win more than a game.  If they want to have a shot they need to have things evened up before game five.  They can’t afford to be playing must-win ball with Beckett back on the mound in game five.  Boston might be like Drago, but I don’t think anyone is going to be knocking them out anytime soon. 

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