September 2007

“There is a difference between being the best player and the most valuable.”

I hate that saying. You hear it every year come the end of the season. The talking heads will be screaming at each other, campaigning for their favorite player. Then, when someone brings up a better player from a non-contender it happens. You can always tell when it’s coming because they have no valid points left to make. What it means is that if you happen to be lucky enough to be surrounded by other outstanding payers while having an outstanding season, then you get classified as valuable. But, if you have an outstanding season while being surrounded by lousy players, then you are just outstanding. In other words, if Alex Rodriguez was auditioning for his $30 million payday with the Devil Rays he wouldn’t be awarded for his efforts.

Whether or not the standings should be used as criteria is a moot point to argue. I’m not going to change the way Peter Gammons casts his ballot, but that doesn’t mean its right. So what if you’re playing for nothing in late September besides pride. A guy can be the difference between third and fourth place, how is that not valuable? Should they be punished because the bullpen didn’t hold up or a teammate got injured? That means players like Hanley Ramirez are systematically eliminated from winning the prize even though they might have the best numbers. It’s the same reason that Alex Rodriguez’s name has already been engraved in the Landis plaque. He’s running away from the pack like Secretariat in the ‘73 Derby, but only because his one credible opponent, Magglio Ordonez, plays on a team that faded from the race long ago. I’ll co-sign on the A-Rod pick in the American League, but it’s not that simple in the NL, even without Ramriez. Six or seven guys could legitimately take home the plaque, but in my eyes three players stand above the rest of the pack.

So without further ado we give to you our 2007 IWS candidates for the NL:

3. Matt Holliday
Leads the league in: Batting average, hits, total bases, doubles, RNI, runs created, extra-base hits
Top five in: Slugging, OPS, runs, home runs, total bases

Holliday has neatly put together the best offensive season in the National League, but he has a few factors working against him. He hasn’t done anything so overwhelming that the voters feel obligated to give him the award. When Ryan Howard hit 58 home runs last season we were in the midst of a great steroid scandal, and he became ‘America’s slugger.’ As he began to make a run at 61 articles started popping up that announced the arrival of the ‘People’s home run king’. It was ridiculous, and it made me sick to my stomach that this nationwide man-crush was developing, but he showed up at a time when the game needed healing, and he provided it with a stellar performance. With the Rockies pretty much out of the race, it is going to be harder for him to garner this type of recognition with out a big moment or accomplishment.

Then, of course, Holliday has the dreaded Coors Field advantage. Being a good player in Colorado can be suicide because no one will ever believe you are as good as you are. But in Holliday’s case, a little hocus-pocus exists behind the numbers. His splits illustrate that he’s a baseball god at Coors and a mere mortal everywhere else. He has respectable road numbers, but it’s quite lucid that he has a little help from the mountain atmosphere.

	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	306	63	115	26	24	74	.376	.434	.722	1.156
Away	294	48	89	22	11	54	.303	.370	.497	.866

What that basically illustrates is that Holliday is a baseball god at Coors and a mere mortal everywhere else. He has respectable road numbers, but it’s quite lucid that he has a little help from the mountain atmosphere.

2. Prince Fielder
Leads the league in: Home runs, slugging, at-bats per home run
Top five in: OPS, total bases, RBI runs created per 27 outs

No other player is more valuable to his team than Fielder. They were nothing without him and now they are everything with him. Ryan Braun dropped in late May to provide some assistance, but Fielder already had this club established as a bona-fide contender. His power numbers are the best in the league, but the Prince of Milwaukee doesn’t get enough credit for his all around talent at the plate. While he isn’t Albert Pujols, he still has respectable marks in both average (.292) and OBP (.388). He already tied Robin Yount’s mark (82) for the most extra-base hits by a Brewer, and is almost certain to break the tie over the last two weeks of the season. Since 1998, following the move to the National League, no player in the organization has finished in the top 10 in voting, and only three have received votes (Carlos Lee, Richie Sexson, and Jeromy Burnitz). Fielder is certain to change that, but has he done enough to finish at the top? How valuable can a guy really be when he’s only collected 27 hits with men in scoring position? I’m just not convinced that Fielder is the best player in the league, and at the end of the day, how good are the Brewers? They might be in contention, but getting to the playoffs through the Central division is like being invited to the Olympic games because you did good in the Special Olympics.

1. Jimmy Rollins
Leads the league in: At-bats, plate appearances, runs, triples
Top five in: Hits, total bases, stolen bases, runs created per 27 outs, extra-base hits

How are you supposed to get any recognition when you play shortstop in the major leagues? It doesn’t matter how good you are, Derek Jeter is always going to be the poster boy for the position. Then if that isn’t bad enough, Jose Reyes demonstrated a little flair and now all of the sudden he’s the second coming. Why is no one paying attention to Rollins when is quietly putting together one of the best seasons by a shortstop in modern history? He’s a good knock away from tying the record for most extra-base hits by a NL shortstop (83, held by Ernie Banks), and four back for the most runs scored (132, Pee Wee Reese).

Rollins certainly is not the prototypical leadoff man. His on-base percentage (.344) is more David Eckstein than Rickey Henderson. He doesn’t walk enough or work the count like he should, but what he does, he does better than anyone else slotted at the top of the order. I acknowledge that Rollins OBP is poor, but you hit him number two and then no one has anything to hang their hat on as far as a case against goes. Those numbers are outstanding, and the 89 RBI he has collected become even more impressive because he bats first in the order. Take away the 130 runs and replace it with 70, and he’s still the MVP. It is a nice stat, but it’s a secondary statistic. He leads the league in triples, and is two home runs away from joining the 30/30 club. At the end of the season his line could legitmately read: .300/.350/.530 with 30 home runs, 100 RBI, 200 hits, 40 stolen bases, 40 doubles, 20 triples, 145 runs.

When the votes come back he’ll probably receive little recognition outside of his region, overshadowed by his less deserving teammates and counterparts, but that’s just the way it goes when you’re Jimmy Rollins.

Others deserving mention: Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds

 

Last edited: September 21, 2007 at 9:45 PM

Tony LaRussa, out of Saint Louis? Say it isn’t so! He’s the greatest manager baseball has ever seen, what will the Cardinals ever do without him? We’re doomed!

Or at least that’s how I’m supposed to react. You know what; I’ll pack your bags and broker the deal with Seattle if that gets you out of here sooner. The truth is, he is a great manager, the guy has the third most wins all-time, and how can you deny that? You can’t, but there comes a point where your voice becomes stale, the players stop responding to you, and that’s when it’s time to move on.

This year has been one set back after another, if not tragedy after tragedy. He’s done a great job of keeping the team competitive despite everything. Through his own personal demons, a rash of injuries, the death of a teammate, and just a plain lack of talent. If they would have won the Central, TLR is the manager of the year. I truly believe this.

He’s been a great innovator for the game. He created the modern closer, or at least the concept of using one exclusively in the ninth inning. He developed the science of situational match-ups in late innings. Sometimes he has gone so far to the left that people have accused him of over managing, like the time he used five pitchers in the span of eight pitches. Yet no one has ever questioned his brilliance.

This is a man that revolutionized the coach from a mere babysitter that filled out a lineup card to what it has become today, but it’s time for him to go. When you’re a manager there’s always a burnt ego, someone who feels scorned because they didn’t get the start, or the at-bat, they felt they deserved. After 12 years of this, eventually your message begins to fall on deaf ears. The players merely nod when you speak as the words travel through their ears, and into a mind that is wandering far beyond their managers perch in the front of the clubhouse.

Take Scott Rolen for instance. It’s no secret that he’s had an ongoing feud with LaRussa since last year’s NLCS, when he was benched during a game that he felt he should have played in. Rolen’s been injured off an on since then, but his sultry attitude has become somewhat of a cancer in the clubhouse. LaRussa, notorious for his stubbornness, allowed this thing to get so big that the two parties haven’t really spoken since. A situation like this can divide a club, or worst. We’ve all seen teams quit on their manager for much less.

I’m not saying that this has any correlation with the poor season that Rolen is having, but it hasn’t helped. He’s currently hitting .265 with eight home runs and 58 RBI, which are all career lows for him (save for the 2005 season when he played in 56 games). He isn’t alone in this feud either. There was definitely some bad blood between Albert Pujols and TLR after the All-Star game debacle. Why would LaRussa use his coach’s pick on his star player and then turnaround and leave him on the bench? He said he was playing to win, so why wouldn’t you use one of the best sluggers in the league during the last inning with the game on the line? Did he really feel better with Orlando Hudson or Aaron Rowand with runners on base in the ninth inning, down a run? Could you have imagined if Phil Jackson benched Jordan in the closing seconds of Game 6 in the 1998 Finals? Something like that should never happen. In a situation like this you have to play favorites for the benefit of the club. Pujols was in somewhat of a slump coming into the All-Star break, and this did little quell the symptoms.

What was TLR thinking? That Albert wouldn’t feel slighted? His coach was basically saying that he felt more comfortable with someone else’s guy. That’s a confidence killer. A manager always has to stand behind his guys, regardless of the circumstances. The Cardinals all know who the alpha dog is. If LaRussa doesn’t feel comfortable with him when the game’s on the line, then they’re all inadequate. Why would Aaron Miles think his coach has any faith in him when he comes to the plate now?

Then when this thing spilled over into the press, LaRussa took a stab at his player instead of defending him. After being told that Pujols stated he wouldn’t have come to the game if he knew he wasn’t going to play, he responded by saying, “If he wants to get upset, he can get upset. Whatever he wants to do, he can do. It’s America.” Everyone knows LaRussa hates to be challenged by his players, but he was clearly in the wrong here. He knew this was going to end up a public matter, instead of diffusing the situation in private, he decided to let his pride win. How dare anyone call into question one of his managerial decisions, he felt that Albert should defer to him. This is a player’s era, with Pujols signed until 2010 he will always be right in the organizations eyes, and in this case he was.

His integrity also took a hit during the Josh Hancock and DUI events. Yes, they are both one in the same. I would never say that the blood is on LaRussa hands, but how is this guy going to tell his players not to go out and get drunk after games when he’s falling asleep at intersections because he’s so intoxicated? Nobody is going to respect this message coming from someone who has displayed destructive behavior due to their alcohol consumption. It looked even worst when he banished alcohol from the clubhouse. It was obvious that he was trying to preserve his reputation more than he was trying to protect his players. This became very clear after an incident that saw LaRussa threaten a group of reporters with a bat after they revealed they were trying to explore the relationship between the two events. He later explained that they were pursuing “some kind of story that’s not all sweet.”

After so long it’s time to move on, he’s just wore out his welcome. It’s like anything, after so long relationships are going to become strained. LaRussa is in an exclusive relationship with 25 guys, of course they are going to have differences, but he is smart enough to know that he has to cater to certain players needs more than others. He should also know that if push came to shove he’s more expendable than someone that’s been a perennial All-Star. Hopefully they realize that the best man for the job is right under their nose, Dave Duncan, the real genius and miracle-man. The problem is, he’s too valuable as a pitching coach, and I’m afraid wherever TLR goes, Duncan will likely follow after his contract expires (he’s signed through 2008). I’d rather have him in some capacity, then nothing at all.

Everyone thought that the Mets could just suit up for 162 games and that was supposed to be enough to get them into the World Series. They may still get there, but the door that was once slammed shut to their foes is wide open, and if they continue to limp down the stretch, it’s going to get blown off its hinges.

The Central is a joke. Seven of the ten teams that play out of their division would currently be sitting ahead of the Cubs and Brewers in the standings, who are currently tied for the division lead as we went to press. The West is an arms race, without any firepower. The real championship might be played in the American League Championship Series, with the World Series being a mere formality, but someone has to get there.

So, as promised, we will break down the races and finally reveal our pick for the World Series Champion.

The East
Everyone had the Mets penciled in for the World Series since they lost in the playoffs to the red hot Cardinals last October, and who could blame them? They obviously had the most talented team, but the timing was just wrong for them, they faced an 83-79 club that was in the midst of an improbable October run. So everyone chalked it up as an unfortunate loss and considered it a learning experience.

As they began to run away with the division this year everyone just figured they were fulfilling their destiny. No Mets club had ever been more entitled to a World Series trip since their 1986 edition that won 108 games.

Then everything began to fall apart. After dropping eight in a row to the second place Phillies, they now hold a mere 1.5 game lead, and are in danger of losing the division lead for the first time since May 14.

So what happened? Their main source of power, Carlos Delgado, is out with a strained hip flexor and Guillermo Mota has proved just how much steroids can help a big league ball player with his abysmal performance this season.

The Phillies actually remind me a lot of last years Cardinals. All it takes is for a team to start gelling at the right time, it worked last year, it happens every year in the NCAA tournament, so why not for Jimmy Rollins and company?

Well, let me reference you to Monday night’s box scores. The Phillies were up 11-0 on the Cardinals when they pulled Kyle Kendrick, in the sixth inning. Then the bullpen came in and promptly gave up 11 runs of their own over the next three innings. The offense managed to put up two more runs to preserve the win, but the bullpen showcased exactly what is holding them back.

So, that’s why were sticking with the Mets. You don’t even need to keep the score close to beat the Phillies, just wear out their starters before the ninth inning and you always have a chance to win. Well that is f you can stop their high powered offense that leads the league in several categories, including: runs, triples, walks, on-base percentage and slugging. They also rank second in: at-bats, hits, doubles, walks, batting average, and steals.

The Central
What can you really say about the National League Central? Every week a team will win three of their seven games, and then all of the sudden they look like the team to beat. I’ve been back and fourth ten different times in the last month with my Saint Louis Cardinals. One day I’m ready to bury them for the season, then they’ll win a couple games and I’m ready to resurrect them. I won’t be fooled again though.

After dropping nine in a row following the Rick Ankiel HGH scandal, they’ve proven they are out of this race. I knew it as soon as I saw those headlines. He brought them back to life and killed them just as quickly. The guy is a head case, his success is contingent on where his mind is at, and obviously this shook him up. I love the guy, I want to see him succeed, but maybe it’s time to hang up the spikes. Enough is enough. They’ve been playing this game with him for the better part of the last decade.

So, that leaves us with the Cubs and Brewers. Chicago obviously has more talent, but the Brewers have willed themselves to stay in contention all season long, and they got their horse back in Ben Sheets. He’s struggled in his last three starts, giving up 11 runs, but it seems that just his mere presence gives them a boost and an identity. Without him they fell into a 15-26 slump, their team ERA of 4.13 with Sheets, jumped to 5.37 without him, and their 3 ½ game lead in the Central vanished. He pulled a hamstring last night, so he might be out, but even if he isn’t 100% he’ll give them a shot.

More importantly, Yovani Gallardo is finally pitching like the top prospect that he was billed to be when he got called up in June. He took the league by storm at first, but everyone figured it was a fluke after a rough August that saw him post a 7.55 ERA. The low point coming when the Rockies belted him for 11 runs over 2.2 innings, but he has since turned it around, winning each of his decisions this month without allowing a run.

The catalyst on offense has been Ryan Braun, a shoe-in for the Rookie of the Year award. In fact, he’s put up some of the best numbers in the majors since making his big league debut on May 25, hitting .323/.370/.637 with 31 home runs and 85 RBI. If he would have been in the majors from the jump he would certainly be a legitimate MVP candidate, if he’s not already. They also have the best slugger in the league in Prince Fielder, who’s leading the National League with 46 homers.

Do the Cubs have more though? They’ve been without one of their top sluggers, Alfonso Soriano or Aramis Ramirez, at nearly every turn, and Derek Lee hasn’t been the same since 2005. In fact, entering the month they had hit only 106 home runs while giving up 142. If they were to sneak into the playoffs they would be an exception to a baseball rule, you can’t give up more homers than you hit. It’s happened before, but it’s rare. Only the 2006 Twins and 1973 Mets had bigger home run deficiency while making the playoffs.

These guys don’t even necessarily like each other, as evidenced by the early-June fight between Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett, which left the catcher in need of six stitches and a place to live in his new home-town, San Diego.

Even with all the problems, they are finally all on the same page at the right time. They have the least flawed roster in the most flawed division, and that might just be enough.

The West
It’s September 19, Arizona has the best record in the National League, and I still don’t believe them. In fact, I’m still trying to figure out how either one of the Drew brothers is collecting a major league paycheck. Wasn’t Stephen supposed to be a ROY candidate? Does this look like a major league line to you: .228/.304/.358, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 95 SO? Didn’t think so. This family amazes me, neither one is that great, but their surrounded by hype at every turn. Why is JD getting paid 11 million dollars for a .268 batting average?

The Drews aside, can a team will themselves into the playoffs on the shoulders of a wacky, dirt-dog, leftfielder? Eric Byrnes has real talent, I love the way he plays the game, but he isn’t your prototypical franchise keystone.

They don’t have a single player, top to bottom, that’s hitting .300 or above, and that’s including the guys that have had 1 at bat. In fact they rank last out of all National League teams in average, as well as on-base percentage. They don’t score runs (13^th), and they rank last in at-bats. They also lack a true power threat. Chris Young has 30 homers, which indicates legitimate power, but with 130 strikeouts and a .236 average, I doubt he puts the fear of god into anyone’s heart.

Outside of Brandon Webb their starting pitching is horrible, so if they do make the playoffs I don’t expect them to hang around very long. They do have an amazing bullpen that leads the league the saves. They rely on them too much, and these weaknesses will be exposed in the playoffs.

Can they hold off the Padres though? My money says no. They are currently a game and half back, and with Chris Young , Jake Peavy, and Greg Maddux at the front of the rotation, that lead looks even smaller.

The pitching on this staff is so airtight I’d be surprised if anyone beats them if they get into the playoffs. Their 3.64 ERA is the best in the business, they have Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, so who do you beat them?

By scoring runs, just a few will do.

Their offense is almost as abysmal as the Diamondbacks. Two spots above them in both average and OBP sit the Padres. Their star rookie, Kevin Kouzmanoff, never quite materialized this year either. He’s currently hitting .269/.321/.455 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, and 88 SO. Adrian Gonzalez is having quite a year, but outside of him they lack an offensive threat.

So who makes the playoffs?

Post Season Picks
ALDS (1)San Diego vs. (4) Philadelphia
Philadelphia Beats San Diego in five games. They just have too much offense, and San Diego doesn’t have enough. Remember what Saint Louis did to this staff last year?

ALDS (2) New York vs. (3) Chicago
New York sweeps the Cubs

NLCS (4) Philadelphia vs. (2) New York
They’re red hot right now, six games.

World Series (NL) Philadelphia vs. (AL) Los Angeles
I revealed in that LA was my AL representative in an article last week. No one is going to like that Philly pick, it’s risky, but no one liked my Cardinals pick last year either. LA wins this thing in five.

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It’s the best show on TV, behind the Wire. Ironically I’m one of the few people that watch either one… Maybe I have bad taste, but I refuse to believe that, it’s you!

Major league baseball is in the midst of a major power outage. According to the Sporting News, as of last week major leaguers had hit about 400 less home runs than they had at the same point last season. Of the top 25 home run hitters of 2006, only Alex Rodriguez has improved upon his total. We are on pace to have the lowest home run output in nearly a decade. With only 402 games left to play, the players would have to belt 858 to match last year’s total of 5386, an average of 2.14 a game.

So what’s the deal? With hitter friendly parks being constructed around the league the opposite is supposed to be happening. The league ERA sits at 4.46, the seventh highest total in the last decade, so no correlation exists in that theory. Could it possibly be that Bud Selig has begun to wash steroids out of the league? It’s a nice theory, but nearly impossible to prove.

At this point last season the top 25 on the leader board had combined for 901 home runs, this season those same players sit at 611. One factor playing a role in the drop-off at the top is injuries. 15 players on the list have had health issues this season, including: Ortiz, Pujols, Soriano, Hafner, Beltran, Dye, Thome, Giambi, Glaus, M. Ramirez, A. Ramirez, Jones, Wells, Hall, and Crede.

It would be misleading to simply attribute the drop for all of those players due to health, although it is convenient. Crede has appeared in only 47 games this season, which is a direct reflection of the four next to his name, but it appears that he overachieved significantly last season, the 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and .283 average that he posted were far above and beyond his skill set. He’ll likely flirt with 20 homers and 60 RBI for the rest of his career, but don’t expect All-Star production from him and you won’t be disappointed.

The same could be said for Bill Hall, but we don’t have a big enough sample size to make a fair judgment in his case. Check back next year.

Ortiz missed a few games this season, but if he suits up for the rest of Boston’s schedule, he’ll fall one short of the 151 he played in last season. Which eliminates any excuse for such a sharp decline in his power production, but the truth be told, this is the best I have ever seen Ortiz at the plate. He’s enjoying career highs in both average and on-base percentage, with totals of .326 and .440. He hasn’t been the clutch player that he was last season (if such a thing even exists, which is very debatable), but he did manage to be the hero against Tampa last week.

As far as Travis Hafner is concerned, I’m not sure he was ever healthy to begin with. He’s missed significant time in each of his four full seasons, and is actually on pace to appear in more games than he ever has, but with a dive in every statistical category. He’s proved that he is a .300 hitter with 30 home run potential through his career, so I’m willing to give him a pass this season. At this point I don’t think there is any reason to panic, I’m just hoping that he gets back into form for the playoffs.

People tend to forget that Jermaine Dye was never a 40 home run guy. He’s been fragile throughout his career; never playing a full season, but he’s came close several times. 2006 aside, the most homers he ever tallied was 33 in 2000. Now, at age 33, it appears that he is on the downside of career, and he was struggling long before the injury bug hit him.

Even with the fall at the top, new names have appeared, as they do every year to pick up the slack for the fading veterans and one-year wonders. In fact 14 of the 25 names are new additions, and more than a third were last season. This isn’t a new trend, but the difference is this years class has combined for only 806 total homers, a difference of nearly 100.

Table 1.2
Player	2007
Rodriguez	52
P. Fielder *	46
C. Pena*	40
Dunn	39
Howard	38
M. Cabrera*	32
M. Holiday*	32
Ortiz	31
Pujols	31
Berkman	30
Braun*	30
Griffey*	30
Morneau	30
Wright*	30
C. Young*	30
Beltran	29
Konerko	29
Lee	29
Phillips*	29
Uggla*	29
Bonds*	28
Burrell*	28
T. Hunter*	28
H. Ramirez*	28
Thome	28
	806
· New addition

All the advantages are in place for the hitters, and in some cases, sluggers have been created with such favorable elements. One theory that is grossly incorrect is that we are witnessing the comeback of the pitcher. This couldn’t be more wrong. In fact, this is the seventh worst pitching season based on ERA since 1996 (2006 ranked ninth).

The only explanation that makes real sense is that we are seeing the cleanest season in baseball since the labor dispute of 1994. That isn’t to say that the 50 home run season is dead, as illustrated with Rodriguez and Fielder, but, as table 1.2 illustrates, the pure hitters are now becoming the home run hitters as opposed to the guys that specialize in slugging.

The Mark McGwire types that hit .260 and bashed 50 home runs every season are becoming a dying breed, replaced by the Albert Pujols of the world that hit line drives that occasionally make their way to the seats. Fielder and Howard are often classified as sluggers, but that is a discredit to their talents. Fielder is hitting .292, and Howard hit .313 while accumulating 58 home runs last year.

Many have suggested that the enhanced players began to outnumber the clean ones following the labor disputes, and the evidence suggests this. In 1992 the players combined for 3,038 homers and the league ERA sat at 3.75. In 1993, with whispers of a salary cap being instilled, those numbers climbed to 4,030 and 4.19. In 1996, the first full season back from the dispute, those figures rose again to 4,962 and 4.61. Over the next decade they continued to climb, peaking in 2000 at 5,693 and 4.77.

It should come as no surprise that random drug testing began in 2001. This policy only included players outside the 40-man roster, but it may have been enough to scare some professionals away from the substances. A Major League policy was never put in place until August 30, 2002, under pressure from Congress. The testing wasn’t to begin until the following season, but coincidentally 2002 saw the second lowest total in home runs since the 1996 season.

I doubt that we’ll ever see the days when the league ERA is lead by the number 3, as last seen in the early 1990’s, but the playing field is starting to level out. It’s impossible to know if the Mitchell investigation is doing anything to deter steroid use, but this new trend would suggest that it has.

Obviously, such a sharp decline for one season can only be considered an aberration, but I like where this is headed. I love the home run as much as the next guy, but I hate a cheater more than anything.

 

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