With Matt Holliday leading the Rockies closer to the playoffs he has established himself as the most valuable player in the National League, and in the process he has become the quintessential example of what this award should represent. He encompasses everything we want in an MVP, which basically constitutes of one criterion: the candidate has to be the center piece of a playoff caliber team. He doesn’t have to be the best player, or a big time slugger, he just has to be the pillar that holds his team up.
I don’t have a problem with this, I put my money on Jimmy Rollins, but who knew that the Rockies would win 11 straight and find themselves right in the thick of things with 2 days left to play? Rollins is just one head on a three headed monster and with the Brewers fading into obscurity Prince Fielder might have fallen out of favor with the voters. Then of course there is also David Wright, but I’m not sure how much momentum he has at this point, and it didn’t help that he cost New York the game Friday night with his shaky fielding decisions. Even if the Rockies don’t get in it shouldn’t matter. Without Holliday this team would have crumbled months ago but this time of year there’s always a huge shadow cast by Coors Field.
I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how Holliday is a product of Coors Field, and to an extent I agree with this, but it’s not germane to the MVP discussion. He’s still a .340 hitter, his average and ability to drive in runs are what makes him valuable. The definition of value is different from talent, and I do question the validity of what his stat sheet represents, but I still feel that he aided his team more than any other player this season. So I’ll have no complaints if he wins the award and neither should anyone else.
Just because he happens to be the most valuable player in the league doesn’t mean that he is the most talented. Over the past two seasons I’ve had the pleasure of watching Holliday play in Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, and Atlanta, and on TV probably 50 other times, but I’ve always felt you had to see a player in person to get a real feel for them. In each of these instances I walked away thinking ‘how does he put up numbers like that?’ His statistics force him into a class that consists of players like Vlad Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez, but he doesn’t belong there. The thing that is holding him back is this line: .374/.434/.726, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 1.160 OPS at home, .301/.374/.485, 11 HR, 55 RBI, .860 OPS on the road. That’s just too large of a free-fall to simply dismiss. It ends up equaling out to a drop of about 19.4% in average, 14% in OBP, 33.2% in slugging, 56% in home runs and 19 % in doubles. I just can’t escape the feeling that this guy is Curtis Granderson outside of Colorado.
It was suggested to me to do a comparison of Holliday’s stats against the other MVP candidates’ in common road parks, but after getting two guys into this I realized my efforts were fruitless. It just revealed what the splits already tell us, that Holliday doesn’t perform well away from home, and his counterparts do so at a relatively normal rate. This isn’t a new trend either, last year he hit .373/.440/.692 while bashing 22 homers at home and those numbers dropped to .280/.333/.485 with 12 homeruns on the road. Either you are forced to accept what has been stated in the splits or you accept the park factors used in the adjustments. The problem is how do you really know which homeruns were legit and which one’s weren’t? If a guy hits 20 homers at Coors that barely clear the wall the adjustment is just going to take the park factor into effect and adjust accordingly, or sometimes they are just neutralized and the park isn’t accounted for at all. In such events it would likely result in a drop of about seven percent in offensive production even though it is obvious that anywhere else those homeruns would result in flyouts. These tools help us achieve better understanding of the game, but there is still a grey area that doesn’t account for visual evidence.
Boston currently has the highest run factor, not because it is the friendliest park, but because they have had one of the highest scoring offenses over the last five years. Supposedly the humidor has played a rule in Coors since 2002, which has led to their park factor dropping to third this season, but it’s clear the problems haven’t been completely solved. Breaking pitches still don’t break as they would in New York, so that alone gives the hitter an advantage. Whether or not this device has made up for the absence of frictional force in the atmosphere is still unclear.
In the end this all moot because Holliday deserves the MVP and all we can really do is speculate until the day (or if the day) comes when he throws on another uniform. In the meantime, just remember there is a difference between being the best and being the most valuable. Holliday is good, not great, but extremely valuable.
So what do you guys think? Is this statistical pattern just a fluke, is Holliday the real deal? Or is he a product of Coors that will be exposed if he ever steps outside of Colorado? Does he deserve the MVP or not?
9. Denver (2) Well, the Bronco’s weren’t who we thought they were. They looked amazing against Oakland and Buffalo, but then again, who wouldn’t? Last week they got exposed against Jacksonville. The 47 rushing yards they were held to was the fourth lowest total in Mike Shanahan’s reign. With Indianapolis this week we’ll find out if their defense, which has allowed an average of 88 passing yards per game, is as good as it looks on paper.
8. Seattle (NR) I was skeptical about putting Seattle in the top ten. Nothing about this team makes me comfortable. Each time Shaun Alexander touches the ball I expect him to leave the field on a stretcher, but somehow he keeps taking those hits and picking up yards. Protective cast or not, he’s the only running back out of the big four (Alexander, Tomlinson, Jackson, Johnson) that has put numbers even remotely close to what we expect. Unfortunately I can’t say the same for the rest of the team, and the reason they came in so low this week is because they barely snuck by a suspect Cincinnati defense that got lit up by the lowly Browns. 
7. Tennessee (NR) If I was forced to fill out a playoff bracket today Tennessee would be included. They’ve looked as good as anyone through the first three weeks against some stiff competition. They dismantled the Saints on Monday night and almost took out the Colts the week before. As much as I’d like to give the credit to Vince Young, it’s their defense that is winning these games, which is currently ranked ninth in the league. 
6. Jacksonville (NR) Now that the quarterback controversy is behind them I wish they would pick one running back so I could feel comfortable putting Fred Taylor in my fantasy lineup every week. He certainly looked stronger than Jones-Drew last week while picking up nearly 50 more yards on just two more carries. That aside, I’m still not sure what to make of the Jags. They have one of the best defenses in the AFC but their passing game is anemic. I know that they were four points away from starting the season 3-0, but with four of their next six games on the road things could fall apart quickly.
5. Green Bay (7) Did the win against San Diego really prove anything? I’d like to think so, but maybe the Chargers aren’t as good as we thought they were. The real question is how does Green Bay keep winning without a running game? Brett Favre is good, but he isn’t good enough to keep winning like this. 817 of their 998 yards have been through the air and there here were times last week when they lined up without a running back on the field. If they start mixing things up a little I could see them in the playoffs. If not at least give the illusion that you might do something else. Just because everyone in the building knows you’re going to pass doesn’t mean that you have to eliminate the possibility of the run altogether.
4. Indianapolis (4) Speaking of fourth quarter meltdowns, the Colts almost got caught with their pants down against the Texans. 
3. Dallas (3) Is it too early to start the Tony Romo for MVP campaign? After lighting up the Bears D for 329 yards and a pair of TD’s last week I’m wondering why we waited this long. His performance came against a unit that has been ravished by injuries (S Mike Brown and DT Dusty Dvoracek are out for the season, and LB Lance Briggs and DT Tommie Harris are hurting) so I might be jumping the gun a little, but he’s still looked as good as anyone under center. In fact I’m starting to get convinced that I should be drinking the Cowboy’s Kool-Aid. Seriously, who else is there in the NFC? 
2. Pittsburgh (5) Good thing they don’t need Ben to get anything done for them. The Defense and special teams outscored the offense 23-14 last week against the 49ers, and the fourteen came on the ground. Ben might be overrated, he’s certainly not the second coming of Dan Marino, not even Boomer Esiason, but all this team really needs is Big Willie Parker running the ball and for the defense to keep doing their thing. That might be enough to get them back to the Super Bowl.
1. New England (1) One word: Amazing.
Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles
Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
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