August 2007

I’m sick and tired of hearing people cry about an asterisk or for the removal of Barry Bonds.  I disagree with making him an example, but it looks like the head has to go before the body.  You guys can keep crying about Henry being the people’s home run king, or you can go into action.

Barry will be coming to city near you.  The solution is rather simple, don’t buy tickets. If people didn’t support the steroid king of baseball he wouldn’t exist.  Just imagine if people completely boycotted the stadiums he was playing in.  The owners would throw fits and he would be exterminated from the sport. 

Doing nothing just isn’t working.  I commend your efforts, but the Drunk Guy in section 117 guzzling $5 beers just isn’t getting the job done. I’m sure the owner has made a notation of your dissatisfaction as you heckle Barry from your $40 seat.

Don’t screw this up though, we aren’t talking about a walk out.  The goal here is to hurt the bottom line, if you do that the owners still get the money and then you’re the dummy. The Pirates did just that earlier this year when they wanted to get a point across to their cheap owner.  It was just a shameful site.  I’m sure it killed him when that night’s crowd of 459 remerged from the bowels of the stadium after stuffing their faces with franks for an inning.  That poor city, even their fans can’t win.

Don’t leave this thing in the hands of Big Al Selig, we all saw how far that got you guys.  The Mitchell investigation has been about as successful as Desert Storm part Deux.  If you guys are really that disgusted by the steroid era hit ‘em where it hurts. 

Nothing.  Empty.  Cold.  Blank.  Those emotions should never be used to describe a festive moment. Many people jumped out of their seats when Bonds matched Hank Aaron’s home run record, but instead of clapping they looked to their left and right unsure of how to react.  The nation was entrapped in one big clandestine moment.  Should I cheer, should I boo, did he cheat, did he lie, he didn’t cheat, does it really matter, do I care?  All of those thoughts were racing through Qualcomm Stadium and living rooms across the country.  The scene in San Francisco will probably be one of jubilance tonight if he breaks the record but it won’t be real.  In that capsule Bonds is a respected figure, but to the rest of the world he is the man that robbed baseball.

Nothing was more telling than Bud Selig’s emotionless reaction to the historic home run.  He remained seated while everyone got up to watch the ball as it ascended into the air and then drop neatly into the seats.  For a brief second watching that ball was comforting, a familiar feeling that took us back to past joyous moments that the game has provided us with.  Wait, this wasn’t 1998, and surely it wasn’t 1961.  After the ensuing moment it became surreal, some faces blank, others remained smiling, a few even appeared to be in anguish.  Then the cameras panned too Selig.  If this man, the commissioner of baseball, was unwilling to cheer or merely clap his hands for this display of athletic excellence should anyone else?  It was one of the most shameful moments I have ever witnessed as a spectator of sports. 

Regardless of how this moment came too fruition, he knew that his presence was hovering over the game.  He knew all eyes would immediately fix on him during Bonds trot around the bases.  He knew this, but still he choice to do nothing. Hs reaction suffocated the significance of what just transpired on the field.  That couldn’t have been his intentions, could it?  It almost seemed like a premeditated attempt to tarnish the memory of the moment, so that people will know that he disapproved as the video lives on in replay infamy. His scowl acting as an asterisks. While that is a convienent explanation, the interpretation is shortsighted.  

We may not be ready too admit it, but Bonds numbers have earned him an invitation into the pantheon where we hold our baseball gods, but with each milestone he reaches a collective finger is waved shamefully towards the commissioner’s office.  The soon-to-be home run king may be the Grinch of baseball, but even the mayor of Whoville made an attempt to bring everyone together and save the day; Selig did nothing.  As he became aware of what happening in the clubhouses he failed to investigate and police his land.  All the other major sports had a drug policy in place, yet it took Congress running interference for anything to happen in baseball.  By then damage had begun, Bonds already owned the single season home run record with his sights locked on Aaron. At that point, a last minute effort still could have been made.  If sports have taught us anything it’s that it’s never too late for something to happen.  Getting Bonds out of baseball would have been his walk-off home run, so why did he sit back with his hands folded in his lap.  Were we really supposed to believe that the bogus investigation headed by George Mitchell was supposed to reveal all the answers we so desperatly need?  Furthermore, is he actually using that information to punish those in the wrong?

Could this all be because deep down he knows this is his fault? That’s why he won’t entertain the idea of placing an asterisk next to the slugger’s name.  If that were to happen the whole Baseball Almanac would become inundated with the foreign object because he can’t just single out one player.  As much as folk lore would like you too believe that Ford Frick placed the symbol next too Roger Marris’ name following the 1961 season, it never happened.  Even if it had, this would be much different.  Ultimately, Selig would be admitting to his shortcomings as the presiding figure, and in essence, he would also be placing the star next to his own name.

He knows that he turned a blind eye when this first started.  It looked as though his ship was sinking, the World Series had been canceled on his watch and the fans were taking the wind out his sails as more and more were avoiding the ballparks.  Then the high octane sluggers came and breathed life back into the sport.  The focus was again off Bud, but more importantly ticket revenue was up and the merchandise was flying off shelves.  This was the answer too all his problems.  How could it possibly be bad thing?  Roger Maris wasn’t his friend anyways, not like Hank Aaron is, so where’s harm if his mark falls?  Technically, he and players weren’t doing anything wrong, steroids weren’t against the rules.  So as long as he kept it that way he had an escape route if things got out of hand. Then Barry showed up and it all came unraveled.  Before he knew it his secret was out, exposed in a national best seller, but Lance Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams never implicated him in The Game of Shadows.  In fact the driving force behind the book was the testimonies that were being given before a Grand Jury in an attempt to clean up the game.  So he figured he’d let Bonds be the fall guy and again let all of the attention and accusations fall on his shoulders.  Why would he ever admit that he lost control or step away if he didn’t have too?

So all he could do in this moment was just watch emotionlessly as the soul of the game was ripped out of its chest, just as he will when 756 finds it way to the seats knowing that he created this monster.  The guilt will wash over him as that ball gloriously flies through the air and splashes into McCovey Cove mocking all those that witness it’s flight.  It will again wash all the emotion from his face, as he sits in stunned silence knowing in that moment he betrayed everyone all over again.    

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I know everyone’s attention is shifted to the left coast right now, but something special is happening in Chicago tonight. Barry Bonds assault on baseball’s most hallowed mark is absolutely something to marvel at, but with Alex Rodriguez in his rearview mirror it kind of takes away the notoriety of the moment. 

Tom Glavine won’t be setting any records with his 300^th win, but he may be the last one ever to join the exclusive club.300 wins is the last great milestone left in baseball.  All of the batting marks have been trampled over as the stampede of ‘roided up players made their way out of the league.  500 home runs and 3,000 hits just don’t carry the same weight they did in 1986.On the surface Glavine’s 300^th victory doesn’t appear to be that spectacular, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll realize not a single player is in striking distance besides Randy Johnson, and his career is likely over with 284 wins.  In the last 20 years Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux are the only other hurlers to reach the 300 win milestone.  In that same span eight players have picked up their 500^th home run, with four more likely to join in the next two or three years, and 11 reached the hits mark. The 300 game winner became an endangered species back in the 1980’s when teams abandoned the four-man rotation.  Players who got their start after the 1960’s were at a serious disadvantage.  Ryan benefited greatly from this early in his career as it gave him more opportunities to pick up wins.  This was also a key factor for the five other pitchers who joined the club in the early 1980’s:  Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro and Don Sutton.Clubs began making the shift to a five-man rotation around 1975 but it didn’t fully catch on until about 1985.  Prior to this move pitchers picked up nearly ten more starts a year, thus meaning more 20-win seasons which put guys on the fast track to 300 wins.  Accoring to STATS Inc. between 1965 and 1985 there were 160 20-game winners.  Since then there has been merely 79. 

A number of pitchers have broke into the league over the last two years that have the skill set and are at the proper age to challenge the hallowed mark, but they are going to need a lot of luck and help from their offense to get there.  Justin Verlander picked up his first win a month after turning 23 and playing for the high scoring Tigers only helps his cause.  Felix Hernandez, who has 23 wins, has a major advantage on his competition being that he is only 21, but it is impossible to project what is going to happen 20 years from now.

These are the guys that currently have the best chance at making marathon run at 300.

The numbers used were based off the average of 15 wins per season.  Pedro Martinez also has an outside shot of getting there, he currently resides at 205 wins but he’s 35 years old.  Using the same rate he would have to stick around for seven more seasons assuming he doesn’t come back this year.

Statistically Sabathia appears to have the best shot at it.  His age alone gives him the upper hand to everyone else on the list, but everyone on there has an outside chance at best based on age, talent and run support.  Now obviously anything can happen, it’s very unlikely that Santana or Willis will stick with their current clubs, so when or if that happens it will change their odds. 

One of the most important moments in baseball history wasn’t a milestone achievement, an everlasting play that will forever be replayed on highlight shows, or even some great trade made by a general manager.  It didn’t happen on the field, in the owner’s box, or in the clubhouse.  It happened when a down-on-his-luck pitcher walked into Dr. Frank Jobe’s office without any other options. 

Tommy John just wasn’t willing to give up.  Prior to the invention of the ulnar collateral ligament replacement surgery this type of injury was considered a death sentence.  Pitchers were simply considered to have a dead arm and they either disappeared or tried to struggle through it.  It’s believed that Sandy Koufax’s career could have been saved if the procedure had existed in 1966.  Hundreds of careers were lost, in contrast, today nearly one in seven pitchers have been saved by this operation.

More than three decades have passed since September 25, 1976 when the operation was first performed, but there are still many unknowns and myths surrounding this procedure.  Amazingly, no in-depth studies have been conducted on the players returning from the injury, so pretty much everything we think we know is based off speculation.

The only study that exists was conducted by Brett W. Gibson of the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia.  These were his findings: 

“Of 68 Major League Baseball pitchers who underwent the surgery between 1998 and 2003, 82 percent returned to play within an average of 18.5 months post-surgery with no chance in average ERA or walks or hits per innings pitched.”

Baseball people have accepted those figures as fact for a number of years.  With all the useless information on the internet, why has no one ever kept track of radar readings?  I know I’m not the only one out there that would visit the site that hosted this information.   I spent countless hours “googling” different phrases and turned up nothing.  The reason this information is so valuable is because many people have claimed to come back with a little extra mustard on their fastball, but there is no hard evidence to back up this theory.  Essentially making the claim impossible to prove.

Billy Koch, who blew out his arm in his third appearance in 1997, typically threw in the high-90s.  When he returned from the disabled list USA Today reported that he hit as high as 108 mph (which is highly unlikey, gut who am I too argrue?).  In 2003 Kerry Wood claimed that in the years following his 1999 operation he was throwing harder than ever.  I’d like to think he was imagining things, but considering that he topped 200 strikeouts in the three seasons following his operation it’s hard to make that case.   It should also be noted that he never hit 100 mph until after the surgery.

So why isn’t everyone lining up to get the four inch scar that goes along with the added velocity?  Well, actually they are.  Several of the leading orthopedists have reported that many teenage ball players come to them with healthy arms or minor injuries looking for an upgrade.  Dr. James Andrews, the leading physician in his field, recently explained in a New York Times article that the extra heat, if it exists at all, comes from the physical therapy and rehab that is done in post-op recovery.  He also has a few theories that can explain this hoax:  young pitchers begin to throw harder as they mature, players are comparing the speed from when they are injured to the postoperative velocity, and pitchers often improve their mechanics during rehab while also making their bodies stronger.  Lastly, the repaired arms are pain free and rested.

“We don’t want to advertise that we can make you a better pitcher by the Tommy John procedure; that’s misleading,” explains Dr. Andrews.  “The increased velocity isn’t true by any stretch of the imagination.  For the ones that do it, the reason is all the hard work, all the throwing exercises and the development from all the exercises they’d probably never done before.”

The procedure is no longer a death sentence, so it doesn’t make sense to put it off when the warning signs appear.  Some clubs will allow a player to struggle for years trying in an attempt too circumvent the operation until their elbows snap like a curve ball.  In this era they should just step in when the red flags start showing up and force them to get it repaired.  It seems as though the longer the wait the harder it is to come back.  Why wait until the ligament is nearly shredded and risk further injury?  Atlanta pitcher Mike Hampton was disabled with forearm soreness in 2005.  It was later discovered that he had a UCL injury.  It was successfully repaired but he continues to struggle with elbow problems that are reportedly unrelated.  You have to wonder if they would have got it right from the start if things would have turned out differently.

Even though some clubs are reluctant, most now opt to go under the knife for partial tears instead of wasting time trying to heal through rest and rehab.

“The non-surgical success rate healing these partial tears is a lot lower that we initially thought,” Andrews says.  “It’s a 50-50 chance they’ll heal with conservative treatment.”

With the new success rates and improved arms, some people have suggested that teams should start using the procedure as a precaution when they draft a player.  They state that their new prospects could study the intricacies of the game while taking away the possibility of losing them down the road.  I’m a firm believer in the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” theory, so this seems a little far fetched to me.  Especially since no evidence exists to support the surgically enhanced pitcher theory.

Francisco Liriano might be the best subject for a case study.  He was one of the top pitchers in the league last year before he went down in the second half.  The Twins opted for the surgery almost immediately; he is due back next year. 

The mystery is still out on the Tommy John surgery.  Too many variables exist to prove anything.  For each Billy Koch that returns with a little extra zip there’s a Jimmy Key that comes back a soft tosser.  If Francisco Lirano comes back throwing 105 mph heaters there will be a couple extra bodies in Dr. Andrew’s waiting room even though it probably has nothing to do with his new tightly wound ligament.