Just last month I was sitting at my laptop watching the Cardinals get carved up by the Brewers.  This was when everyone had Yovanni Gallardo pegged as the next great thing and the Brew Crew was the feel good story of the summer.  It looked like Gallardo brought his best stuff and with each strikeout he put another nail in the coffin for the Cardinals season. 

It was a depressing sight.  Ryan Braun and Cory Hart were tearing up the league while Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen were fading before my eyes.  Gallardo was making guys swing at things that weren’t there while Kip Wells was getting pounded to the tune of five runs in as many innings.  It was over for us, our reign atop the Central ended on July 28, 2007.  We were an old decrepit team and the Brewers were circling overhead like vultures.  I started writing a eulogy for my team after the young phenom struck out his sixth batter. 

I had never felt lower as a Cardinals fan.  We were eight games out of first and falling fast.  Everywhere I went I got the sarcastic “how bout those world champs” comment.  It was embarrassing and I was becoming very cynical.   I fully expected Gallardo to finish out the no-hitter he had going through four innings.  There was a time when I would watch every game until the last pitch because I always believed that something special might happen, but on this day I decided I had nothing left to give.  I turned the game off.  I felt awful for abandoning my team but there was no way I could watch while I was writing their obituary.    

I checked back a couple hours later to see if Gallardo finished off the no-no and saw that something even better happened.  We knocked him out after a four-run bottom of the fifth and went on win the game 9-5.  I wasn’t convinced that our fate had changed, but it was a nice surprise.  I didn’t realize it at the time but this was the turning point of our season. 

Over the next month the Cardinals won 14 games and currently have a 63-64 record, putting them two games out of first.  The Brewers (65-65) lost 16 of 24 which let the Cubs (66-63) sneak into first.  What once looked like a one horse race is now wide open.  It’s the weakest division in baseball so all it’s going to take is for a team to get hot for a couple weeks to steal this thing.  Winning the Central is more about losing the least than winning the most (think about that for a minute).

If the Cardinals want to be considered legit contenders they have to play like the team that posted a 2.89 ERA over their last 15 games, not the one with the fifth worst ERA (4.60).  Their hopes will rely heavily on the return of Mark Mulder, who hasn’t pitched since the beginning of last season.  Will he be the guy that won 16 games and posted a 3.64 ERA?  Or will it take him a few starts to shake off the rust and essentially cost them a few games they can’t afford to spend?

The Cubs are on pace to win 83 games, but if they manage to play up to their potential they could easily win 20 of their last 35, giving them 86 wins.  Meaning the Cardinals would have to finish 24-11 to pass them.  I hate to say it, but it’s not going to happen.

The Cubs offense has been anemic because their once powerful sticks have been silent.  They have a National League low 30 homers since the break and are currently on pace to hit 131.  Soriano, Lee, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, Daryle Ward and Henry Blanco alone hit 164 last year.  That cast has combined for a mere 73 this year.  It’s just a matter of time before someone ignites this offense, and that man is on his way back from the DL.  His name:  Alfonso Soriano.  The superstar they hired to put them over the top. He’s far too good a player to be kept down this long.  All of those guys are, but even if they don’t start hitting the ball their pitching staff is good enough to carry them.  They lead the league in hits and their 4.00 ERA is good enough for third.  Oh yeah, they also rank second in strikeouts and runs.

The Brewers problems are the exact opposite.  They have the sticks but their pitching is horrendous.  Their first three guys, Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano and Ben Sheets, haven’t won a game since June 30.  To be fair Sheets has been on the DL since July 14 but what’s everyone else’s excuse?

 When the rotation started to implode Ned Yost believed that Yovani Gallardo would bail them out, and at first it looked that way, but since the Cardinals roughed him up he hasn’t been the same.  His ERA entering that game was 2.72, but it’s now 4.86.  All the staff has to do is make sure they don’t lose games, the offense has provided a league leading 180 homers and nearly 600 RBI, but they have failed to do this.   

Carlos Zambrano represents a luxury that the other contenders don’t have, an ace.  Chris Carpenter is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss some of next year.  The Brewers are expecting Ben Sheets to return some time this week, but is it too little to late?  The team basically fell apart without him.  If they want to get their swagger back he is going to have to come in and dominate immediately.  If he can be the same guy he was before hitting the disabled list it might be enough to give them the push they need to get over the hump, but I don’t see this happening.  Everyone is starting to gear up for the playoffs and he’s trying to get back in the swing of things.    On paper the Cardinals have no chance.  No team in the modern era has made the playoffs in a season in which they scored less runs than they gave up.  Saint Louis fits this profile.  They’ve scored 568 and surrendered 636, that’s a difference of 68 for those of you following along at home.  They just don’t have the right mix of players to get them into the postseason, even in the pathetic NL Central.  Their rotation is made of two former relievers, Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper; then you have Joel Pinerio, a starter who couldn’t hack it as a reliever while with the Red Sox; and two true starters, Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes, who combined for more than 20 losses before the end of June.  But can you really count out the Cardiac Cardinals?  They made a living off of hot streaks last year, can they do it again?  

Stuff I read today:
College Football is almost here (With Leather)
Eat Lunch with the Monday Night Football Booth (Awful Announcing)
Charlie killed OJ’s wife (Sons of Sam Malone)
Is Gagne tipping pitchings? (Larry Brown Sports)
Schilling to Tampa Bay?  (38 Pitches)

It takes a certain kind of pitcher to come onto the scene and capture the nation’s imagination.  There are plenty of sluggers out there that make you stop what you’re doing so you can watch their at-bat.  When Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols come to the plate you always feel like something special might happen. 

The big boppers come a dime a dozen but a pitcher that paints his corners with the precision of an artist is about as common as a lunar eclipse.  When was the last time a hurler made you plan your day around his start?  Each time he takes the mound it becomes an event that you feel you can’t afford to miss.  When a guy is that good you feel like each start could the perfect game he is destined to achieve.  Each pitch becomes part of a bigger masterpiece.

There are few pitchers that were truly artists during their prime years:  Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan are among them. The 1990’s had a bunch of idols including Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, but watching Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux during their peak years was like witnessing the creation of the Sistine Chapel. 

Amazingly we were blessed with two of the true all-time greats during the same span. These guys had two of the most dominating runs the game has seen.  Maddux owned the front end of the decade beating hitters with his mechanics and brains.  Pedro brought in the new millennium fooling hitters with some of grimiest stuff anyone has ever seen.  If Maddux was the scientist then Pedro was the mysterious rock star.  Both of them owned the game during their respective reigns, but one question looms:  which one was more valuable over their incredible four year span?

The most disturbing parallel between these two players was that both of their franchises allowed them to get away during the zenith of their careers.  I could almost excuse them letting these guys slip through their fingers if it was due to ignorance.  Like when the Giants let Francisco Liriano get away before his skills came to fruition, but these guys were certified!  Maddux would leave the Cubs for Atlanta following his 1992 Cy Young season, the first of four straight years that saw him win the award.  Montreal made one of the most lopsided deals in history when they dealt Martinez to Boston for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas following his 1997 Cy Young campaign.  He then went on to win two of the next three pitching titles in the American League.

The Battle

Take away Greg Maddux’s minuet earned run average during his prime and he would be relegated to being just another front of the rotation guy.  Essentially he would be like Kevin Brown in that he was never able to sustain pitching excellence.  We would never think about granting Brown entrance into the sacred pitching pantheon, yet he had several great seasons.  He’ll forever be the guy that should have been special but never lived up to our expectations.  Without that superb ERA, that’s all Maddux would be.  He had some seasons with high strikeout totals and then others that were anorexic.  One thing always remained, that ridiculous ERA.  It’s what defined his greatness and got him all that hardware.

On paper Mad Dog has a sizable advantage over Pedro during their respective four year runs.  His accumulated average was 1.98, while Pedro clocked in at 2.19.  Although, after adjusting their statistics, the tide shifts in favor of Martinez.  Maddux’s stellar average bloated to 2.70, an increase of .72 points.  Martinez faired a little better at 2.32. 

Both had very impressive individual seasons during their respective tenures, but as the chart illustrates Maddux’s seasons are tainted.  Two of his three seasons jump nearly a full point, taking away his only real advanteage.

Pedro’s 2000 season was his only saving grace in this discussion.  It’s raw numbers placed it among the top greatest single seasons, and it was impressive before it is now infallible.  I’ve never seen a season hold it’s value as this has.  His 1.74 ERA increased a mere two tenths of a point and it now appears that it has swayed this category in Martinez’s favor. 

Mad Dog doesn’t even deserve to be in the same discussion as Pedro when discussing raw strikeout totals.  This shouldn’t be counted as a discredit though.  Maddux has gained the reputation as a smart pitcher that beat hitters in a more clandestine manner. His repertoire relied heavily on control, placement, and ultimately inducing ground balls.    Not to mention that he his two final seasons in this discussion were shortened by the players strike, but even the translation failed to be competitive.

Due to this reputation you would assume that he would have a huge advantage once you start discussing categories that involve hits, walks, and other things that compliment his strenghts as a pitcher.  Ironically the gap only becomes acerbated when pushing past the surface.  Maddux does enjoy a slight edge in walks over his counterpart, 176-203, but this proves to be little more than a moral victory.  Over a four year span this averages out to a mere 6.75 walks per season. 

I fully expected Maddux to have an amazing strikeout to walk ratio coming into this but his 4.16 ratio is merely pedestrian compared to Martinez’s 5.68.  I knew that Martinez’s gaudy strikeout totals set him up for an easy win but I thought it would be closer.  He could have walked 276 batters and still won.  For those keeping score at home that’s 100 more than Maddux had.

One of the things that allow Pedro’s performances to transcend time, or at least 10 years, is that he just simply baffled hitters.  His curveball looked like it was being thrown in the absence of gravity and it was offset with an amazing fastball which meant he was impossible to hit.  Maddux was more of a contact pitcher, probably the best ever, so it was expected that he surrendered more hits than Martinez (726-634). 

That’s just how he got people out, and with the help of one of the better defensive units in the league he was very successful at this.  Unfortunately, they couldn’t convert every play but they did help make superstars out of everyone that pitched in Atlanta during the 1990’s.  When Maddux took the mound they only allowed 6.90 hits per nine innings, but again Pedro got him a 6.30.  Which sets him up for another win in WHIP:  .925 against 9.53.

The chief argument that I heard when discussing this is that throughout his career Maddux was more valuable because he was an illustrious innings eater.  I won’t dispute this claim, but that wasn’t the case during this four year stretch.  The Cubs kept him under the reigns during his peak years, a practice they later abounded with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.  He did pitch more innings, 41.4 to be exact.  That figure becomes irrelevant as it averages out to 10.35 more innings a year.  This then breaks down to approximately a third of an inning less each time out.  In other words it does nothing to skew the statistics in one direction or the other.  Granted, that figure would be even larger if it weren’t for the aforementioned strike shortened seasons.  Maybe he then wins in WHIP, or maybe not.  He would have given up more hits and walks but the innings would have been increased.

Each pitcher is the quintessential example of greatness but Pedro was far more dominate during his prime years.  In no way am I claiming that he has had a better career than Maddux.  That would be irresponsible.   I might actually be inclined to side with Maddux in that capacity due to the longevity he has enjoyed and the aforementioned durability he displays nightly.  That is a quality that is invaluable in a pitcher.  Martinez is the flashy guy while Maddux is the old reliable.  Pedro will be lucky to get three more years on the mound while Maddux is going strong in his 22^nd season.  That alone makes him more valuable and arguably gives him the better career depending on what you value in a pitcher.  Personally I’m more of a year-to-year guy in that I’ll take one superb year out of Dan Haren before three solid years from Josh Beckett.

It takes a certain type of player to play in Cincinnati.  You can’t just take any regular kid and throw him in stripes and expect him to fit in.  Marvin Lewis and company have been struggling for years trying to find a certain type of player, unfortunately there aren’t games being played in prisons or juvenile lock-ups like the Longest Yard and Rounders would like you to believe.  So where do they scout?  The answer is now clear. Notre Dame.

The squeaky clean university had their name dragged through the mud this off-season in a series of arrests and brushes with the law.  The only thing missing from putting them on par with the Bengals is a gun charge, but with the way things are heading it shouldn’t be long before someone is driving a “borrowed” car without prior knowledge of the .45 caliber pistol laying on the backseat.

I remember a time pre-Charlie Weis when a guy couldn’t get into the university just based on the merit of their football skills.  You had to be squeaky clean and be considered of the highest character to be considered for a scholarship.  Just three short years ago Notre Dame great and 1956 Heisman winner Paul Hornung lambasted the university stating that they couldn’t compete with their current academic standards.  He also felt that by setting the bar so high that it was excluding black athletes.

“You can’t play a schedule like that unless you have the black athlete today. You just can’t do it, and it’s very, very tough, still, to get into Notre Dame. They just don’t understand it, yet they want to win.”  Hornung explained.

Hornung’s comments may have been a little far fetched, but they certainly weren’t all wrong.  The school wasn’t discriminating against the black athlete more-so than the athlete in general. This was back when Notre Dame was losing out on recruits who had them listed as their first choice, sometimes even after getting commitments.  At the time the institution had a prerequisite that all incoming freshman had to successfully complete a highschool calculus class.  TJ Duckett and David Terrell were among the high profile recruits who couldn’t get in.

This was a far cry from the schools 1980’s heyday when they were little more than a perennial football powerhouse.  With Lou Holtz at the helm anything the program wanted they got. A perfect example was in 1988 when quarterback Tony Rice led the school to it’s 11^th national title after being an academic non-qualifier his freshman year.  This was the golden era when they would sign off on anything he brought to the table.  This allowed him to bring in players that never would have made it through the gates during Bob Davie or Tyrone Willingham’s tenure, such as:  Jerome Bettis, Bryant Young and Tim Brown.

You probably never even realized.  How could you?  The bright lights of New York had you blinded or maybe the fans in Philly bullied you into thinking something else. Contrary to popular belief the best shortstop in baseball doesn’t reside in either one of those cities.  Hanley Ramirez is lost somewhere way down the coast out of sight and apparently out of mind.

The Rookie of the Year award apparently meant nothing.  You’d think that the honor would have tagged him as someone to look out for, but as his numbers continue to give his more heralded counterparts a proverbial beat down they continue to get all the acclaim that should be going to Ramirez. The skill level and output between the players is simply ridiculous, there is absolutely nothing to dissect, if Hanley Ramirez is Joe DiMaggio then the other guys would be Dom.

Ok, that comparison may be a little bit of a reach, but no more so than saying that Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins are the best shortstops in the National League.  We’re not even going to talk about the American League shortstops, which include the most criminally overrated baseball player in the world, Derek Jeter.  Sure, the guy has had his moments but the hype has gotten way out of hand.  The way people talk about Mr. November you’d expect him to go out onto the field in a cape.  He’s not Superman, or even Robin for that matter.  The guy is more Roberto Alomar than Ted Williams.  Then again, I guess it goes with the Territory of playing in pin-stripes.  Either they love you or order a hit.  It’s not really Jeter’s fault that his skills have become grossly overrated.

So why isn’t Hanley Ramirez the face of the NL shortstops?  He’s young, explosive, and easily the most talented.  Sure he gives up a few statistical categories like stolen bases and runs.  Who cares?  He’s absolutely killing the competition in everything else.  Ramirez’s batting average:  .340.  Rollins and Reyes clock in at .290 and .302.   On-base percentage, we got you there too.  Ramirez paces his competition at a .394 clip.  Slugging?  Yup, his .575 average tops Rollins .520 and embarrasses Reyes’ .451.  The list just goes on and on like this with Ramirez leading in every offensive category besides runs, stolen bases and RBI. 

Next time you have a chance you should tune into a Marlins game and appreciate what is going to be a monster once he finally escapes the confines of Florida. The All-Star snub won’t happen again, I can assure you that.  After he wins the NL batting title how could it?  We aren’t talking about Freddy Sanchez either, you can expect Hanley to compete every year. Jeter and Reyes just better hope that he doesn’t land back home in Boston or in another media friendly town or the crown is going to be back with it’s rightful owner.