July 2007

          Things are starting to heat up as we enter into the trading period.  If history has taught us anything over the years there are a few things we can assume as we head into the stretch:  A lot of big names will be rumored to be moved and very few will change colors, people will pay attention to the Red Sox and Yankees as if they are the only two clubs that exist, the media will continue to debate what the Bonds record means long after the feat is accomplished, and someone from the Cubs pitching staff will undergo season ending surgery.  We’re selling dates for the last one in the office pool; get your square while you still can!

Handicapping the Arms Race          

Since the league expanded the biggest problem for teams year in and year out has been pitching, and this season is no exception.  The Braves, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Padres would love to add another arm, but nothing major is likely to happen.  Anyone of those teams would love to add a Carlos Zambrano or Dontrelle Willis, scabs and all, but those guys won’t be available.  Neither will Joe Blanton, Roy Oswalt, or Jon Garland, as many have hoped. 

            This isn’t 1998 and Randy Johnson won’t be showing up with a cape to save the day.  Teams just aren’t willing to pay the price to win the arms race, so the contenders are going to have to pluck their help from the likes of:  Matt Morris, Jason Jennings, Kyle Lohse, Scott Elarton, Steve Traschel, and Jose Contreras.  Those guys might eat up some innings, but they aren’t going to mean a World Series for the club that gets them.

            Those in need of bullpen help might have a few more options, but it is yet to be revealed who is actually available.  The Astros still have to decide who their closer of the future will be, meaning that the struggling Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, or Dan Wheeler could become available in the coming weeks.  The Rangers are still shopping both Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka, the Pirates would like to move Salomon Torres, and the Royals still want too much for Octavio Dotel.  It has also been rumored that the Twins would consider an offer for Joe Nathan, but that is yet to be seen.

            The players who will have to most impact on the pennant races won’t be found in the sweepstakes, they are the guys that are trying to fight their way back from injuries.  The Yankees might be six games out of the wild card, but they have no reason to panic as Phil Hughes continues to dominate at the minor league level and is probably about a week or two away for being recalled.  The only move Brian Cashman is likely to make is for infield help.  They also have high hopes for Joba Chamberlain out of Trenton and expect to use him in long relief situations down the stretch.

            The Red Sox are still awaiting the return of Curt Schilling, and the Mets should get a major boost from Pedro Martinez who is yet to pitch this season.  Omar Minaya continues to get all kinds of offers for Lastings Milledge, but he refuses to deal him for anything but a proven starter.  The Braves and Phillies don’t have any help on the way, so they are likely to be the most active players come July 31.

Deadline Rumors

The Mets and Red Sox have shown great interest in him, but the price tag is too steep. Both of these clubs would likely use him as a set-up man, and the Nationals are looking for closer value.

Verdict:  Rumor for now, but stay tuned

Wilson Bentemit, Dodgers                                                                                                                   

 The Yankees have been after him for two years, losing out on the sweepstakes last year while he was with the Braves.  The Dodgers are looking for help in the bullpen to help eat up innings for Johnathan Broxton and Takashi Saito, but apparently they haven’t been impressed with anyone in the New York organization.                                                                                                                                           Verdict:  What the boss wants, the boss usually gets.  I can’t see him being denied two years in a row.  I’d be surprised if this didn’t get done.

Adam Dunn, OF, Reds

There have been several reports that the Brewers are close to closing in on a deal that would send Tony Gwynn Jr. and reliever Matt Wise to the Reds.  Brewers GM Doug Melvin has denied early reports.

Verdict:  I think this deal is going to get done soon.  The Brewers have to win now and the Red’s bullpen has been relatively ineffective.  They’re going to lose Dunn when his contract is up anyways so this is a win-win for both sides.

Mark Teixeira, Texas

Everybody and their brother is interested in Teixeira, but he is signed through 2008 so it makes him that more valuable.  The teams rumored to be in the sweepstakes are the Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Angles, and Braves.

Verdict:  It’s looking like he’s this year’s Alfonso Soriano.  He’s been rumored to be going everywhere, but the price tag is too steep.  The Rangers still have to decide if they’re having a fire sale or not too.  If so Sammy Sosa would likely be the first one out of town, and my instincts are telling me that a reunion with Omar in New York is likely.

            It wasn’t too long ago that Michael Vick was the face of the NFL. He was supposed to revolutionize the game, change the way it was played, and take it to heights it had never reached before.  Over the years he has failed to live up to the hype, but he always maintained a good image and was popular amongst fans.

            It may not seem like it, but just three long years ago the Falcons were a game away from the Super Bowl, and Vick was forcing his way into everyone’s living rooms across the country.  You had to take notice then, and you still do now, but it isn’t because of what he’s accomplishing on the field. 

It’s been a busy off-season for Vick.  Not too long ago he hit the papers for an incident at an airport that may, or may not have involved marijuana that was hidden in a water bottle.  Nothing ever became of this, and I’m not sure anyone knows what really happened.  It didn’t really matter though everyone gave him a pass.  It was his first mistake as a pro athlete, and with all the steroid talk it just didn’t seem that newsworthy.  At least he wasn’t cheating. 

This time it’s different, dog fighting is just something that a professional athlete can not be a part of.  Nobody should.  Taking part in the practice of killing and torturing innocent animals is not only barbaric and cruel, it’s morally wrong. Apparently the league can’t take action, but it should.  If Pacman Jones and Chris Henry have to sit out the season, then so should he.  This is just as bad, if not worst, than any of the things they we’re involved in.

This is the beginning of the end for Mike Vick.  The NFL hype machine will be doing their best to erase him from everyone’s consciousness, all of his endorsements will disappear, and chances are he won’t be leading the league in jersey sales this season.  Who would want their kid’s walking around in a dog killer’s uniform?

His team has no choice but to try and ride this thing out with him under center during the 2007 season, Joey Harrington just isn’t a viable option.  After three losing seasons they have to do whatever it takes to get into the playoffs, even if that means picking up a black eye along the way.  I bet they wish they would have hung onto Matt Shaub, but who would have thought they needed a contingency plan for something like this?

All of these things should be the least of his concerns, this man doesn’t just have to fight off blitzing linebackers, he has the  commonwealth of

  Sorry Mike, I don’t feel bad for you.  You deserve to be hounded by the press for the next six months.  You did it to yourself; you killed dogs that didn’t perform up to your standards.  At least no one tried to drown, electrocute, hang, or bash your head open for putting up a lackluster QB rating or completion percentage.  Jerk.

         Everything I thought I knew about sports has turned out to be proven wrong over the last 21 days.  I always thought the philosophy for being successful adhered to one simple philosophy.  No matter age, race, color, or creed you have too use your most talented guys at each position.  If you have both Jimmy Rollins and Julio Lugo on your roster, you play Rollins at short.  No brainer, right?  Apparently I was wrong, because it took Ben Sheets hitting the disabled list for Yovani Gallardo to make his way back into the Brewers rotation, even though he is supremely talented to all their other starters.

            Besides Sheets (10-9, 3.34), Milwaukee’s rotation consists of: Chris Capuano (5-6, 5.19), Jeff Supan (8-8, 4.90), Dave Bush (7-7, 4.86), and Claudio Vargas (6-2, 4.52).  Somehow, night after night for three weeks, Ned Yost penciled those other four names in when he had a guy available that posted a 2.79 ERA with 19 strikeouts during his 19.1 innings as a starter rotting away in the bullpen.  Amazingly, they have managed to hold onto first place in the NL Central even though they aren’t using the players that give them the best chance to win.  Thanks in large part to a stellar bullpen headlined by Francisco Cordero.

            I normally don’t get up in arms over situations like this, and I even understood the logic behind it a little bit.  You know, nurse him along, pull the reigns back a little bit and let him get accustomed to the show. Good that’s fine, but what’s the deal with Carlos Villanueva?  He’s having a good year out of the bullpen (6-1, 3.41. 58 K, 26 W, 1.22 WHIP), and the only adequate pitcher in the rotation is Sheets, so when is he going to get his shot? 

Their have been far too many cautionary stories about a young pitcher having his career cut short due to an over eager manager.  Hell, it happens with the Cubs every year, but that doesn’t mean that you have to stash these guys away and keep them under lock and key.  You just have to be responsible, make sure they don’t go too many innings and have a stringent policy on pitch counts.  If that number happens to be 85, no matter the circumstances stick to that number, even if the guy is in the midst of perfect game.  Otherwise that’s how they end up like Dusty Baker’s favorite prospects. 

            The Brewers have been very fortunate that they play in the weakest division in baseball.  It actually surprises me that Yost dropped the ball with his rotation.  He hasn’t been afraid to put his best guys out in the field regardless of how young or inexperienced they are (see Hart, Cory and Braun, Ryan), and the results there have spoken for themselves.  So it really confuses me that he hasn’t shown the same confidence in his pitchers.  The Cub’s are right behind them in the standings and have been playing good ball, so if they want to make the playoffs Yost is going to have to at least take a chance on Gallardo.

With the second half underway let’s take a moment to take a look at the American League.  

AL East

Current Leader:  Boston

Will Be: Boston

It’s temping to pick the Yankees even though they are trailing by ten games.  They have one of the most talented line-ups in the league, and their rotation has been hampered by injuries, and is about two weeks away from firing on all cylinders.  Clemens is just getting into his groove, and it will be interesting to see if rookie phenom can return on his early promise.

Ten games is a lot of ground to make up, and the Red Sox should be fine as long as they don’t get too comfortable.  The biggest question marks are whether or not Manny can start being Manny, and if Curt Schilling will ever return.  They are lacking a fifth starter at this point, but that will likely be addressed prior to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.  Look for them to try some options in-house before they make any moves.  Shortstop is also a position that needs addressed, as Julio Lugo has not been an adequate option.

You can never count out the Bronx Bombers.  These teams will play each other six times down the stretch, which is a great opportunity for the Yanks to make up some ground.  Boston has the most efficient offense in the league, so even if

Forecast

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa
   Bay
5. Baltimore

AL Central

Current Leader: Detroit

Will Be:  Detroit

This is a tough pick that I went back and forth between several times.  The Indians are right there, which will make this one of the more interesting pennant races of the season.  They are just such similar clubs:  both produce a plethora of runs, they have adequate pitching anchored by a superstar (Sabathia, Verlander), but yet each could afford to upgrade.  The Tigers bullpen is weak, and they need help at first.   While the Indians kryptonite has been an outfield that is basically vacant, save for Sizemore.  So what it comes down too is which GM will be able to get it done.

Health will also play a big factor.  Both squads held up reasonably well, the Tigers have little to no depth so it will be imperative that their regulars log as much time as possible.  Todd Jones will also have to become more consistent in his role as closer if they fail to find an upgrade.

I like Minnesota a lot too, but they just don’t have enough at this point.  This division is so full of talent, but after the top two teams everyone else underachieved during the first half. 

Forecast

1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City (They aren’t as bad as you think)

AL West

Was: Los Angeles

Will Be:  Seattle

This one is going to come back and bite me. The Angeles are superiorly talented, and the Mariners bullpen has overachieved thus far.  It’s just hard to see them keep this up, but it is possible.  They are only three games back right now, and after his first two starts, they basically played the first half of the season without Felix Hernanadez.  With him healthy and throwing strikes he alone should be able to cover that ground if everyone else can maintain the same pace.

The A’s are another team that you can never quite call dead.  They have been the best second half team of the decade, and sometimes they are downright scary during August and September.  Simply put, I just don’t think they have it.  They never spend big money, but for some reason Billy Beane thought Eric Chavez was the guy to start a trend with, even with his injury record, and he has disappointed terribly.

So we’re going to stand with our prediction and see how it plays out.  It may seem a little crazy now, but this one is either going to make me a genius or a complete idiot.  Give it a few months to materialize before you chastise me for having the courage to make the prediction that everyone wanted too, but didn’t.

Forecast

1. Seattle
2. Los Angeles
3. Oakland
4. Texas

Playoffs

ALDS: 

ALDS: 

ALCS: 

World Series: 

Check back for the NL preview which will be up shortly