Bracketology 102: Breaking it Down

I don’t know what it is about this year’s bracket. For some reason I feel extremely gun shy about picking lower seeded teams to make a deep run. There’s going to be some big time upsets, there always is, yet I find myself struggling to clip any of the big dogs. I could be like Jay Bilas, ESPN’s resident college hoops guru, and take all four number ones to the Final Four even though it’s never happened before, and never will. I can understand why he picked the way he did assuming that he knows what he’s talking about and is familiar with the teams, and not just picking based off seeds. It does seem like there is a great level of disparity between the top ten seeded teams and the rest of the field, but I’m not going to follow his lead.

Let’s take a look at the regions and maybe we can get a better handle on this thing before tomorrow’s picks.

Midwest

Overseeded: USC. I’m glad we get to watch OJ Mayo and Mike Beasley go head to head in the opening round, but I bet Tim Floyd isn’t sharing the same sentiment. According to their RPI, the Trojans should be an 8 seed, which would pit them against Kent State, another team that many feel was seeded way too high. Too bad for Flloyd, good for us.

Underseeded: Wisconsin. How do you win the Big Ten both ways and end up a three seed? Sure, the competition wasn’t too steep, and those pair of losses to Purdue didn’t help much, but I think they deserved better than this. This could be a bad omen. The last time a team from one of the Big Six Conferences won the title and didn’t get a 1 or 2 seed was the 2006 Kansas Jayhawks. After sharing part of the Big 12 crown with Texas, they were seeded fourth and immediately bounced by Bradley in the first round. Speaking of that Bradley team, whatever happened to Patrick O’Bryant?

Best Draw: Kansas. I know North Carolina is supposed to be the number one, number one, but I’d say the Jayhawks have the easiest path to the Sweet 16. Kent State is way overseeded at 9, and I don’t think UNLV can give them a game either. I think it’s pretty safe to pencil them into the Elite Eight.

Worst Draw: USC. I already covered this, but having to match-up against Beasley and K-State is scary. When they can get everyone on their team to show up and play (read: when Bill Walker Is motivated), they’re as good as anybody. If they manage to get out of that game, they have Wisconsin, and then Georgetown to look forward too. In other words, this team is marked for death.

Sleeper: Davidson. I don’t know how much of a sleeper they really are since they’ve won 22 straight games, but they are a 10 seed, so that qualifies them to some degree.

Get Familar: Stephen Curry, Davidson. Coming up in a class that featured Kevin Durant and Greg Oden doesn’t help get you much attention, especially when your buried in a conference the media doesn’t care about. It’s only a matter of time, though. If Davidson wins a game or two the nation’s best kept secret will be out.

Quick Pick: Kansas vs. G-Town

East

Overseeded: South Alabama. That loss to Middle Tennessee just doesn’t sit well with me. Sorry, I know it’s only one game, but there are plenty of teams seeded lower that don’t have a major wart on their resume.

Underseeded: There’s a few teams that qualify in this region. Indiana was solid all year long until their late season collapse, but what about Butler? They went 22-3 and are currently ranked tenth in the Nation, so it makes perfect sense that they’re seeded seventh. Right…

Best Draw: Louisville. They are in a great position to make a deep run in the tournament. They should be able to run all over Oklahoma State, and they match up well against Tennesee.

Worst Draw: North Carolina. Being the top seeded the team in the tournament is supposed to give you a soft path to the Regionals, so why does UNC have the toughest potential second round game out of all the number ones? Indiana’s late season collapse makes for a real interesting match-up. 

Sleeper: George Mason. The Patriots are going to set out to be this years, well, George Mason. They still have a few Final Four holdovers on their roster, while Notre Dame has exactly zero players that have been past the first round. Look for them to take down the Irish and give Washing State a run in the round of 32.

Get Familiar: Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver, Washington State. Four of the Cougars starters averaged double figures, so both of these guys kind of got lost in the shuffle in terms of national love, but don’t let that fool you.

Chalk: UNC vs. Louisville

South

Overseeded: Oregon. I was surprised that Oregon even got in. By all accounts they were barely on the bubble, so handing them a nine seed was a bit shocking. You’d think that they’d be something like an eleven or lower considering their credentials, we are still talking about the same team that lost to Oakland, right?

Underseeded: Pittsburgh. They won their last 11 games, along with the Big East Tournament. Give them their due, or at least Stanford’s three seed. Temple could make a case here too considering they beat St. Joe’s twice, yet got seeded lower than them.

Best Draw: Texas. The bottom half of this bracket is absolutely butter, I’d much rather have Marquette, Stanford and Miami, than Mississippi State, Michigan State and Pittsburgh.

Worst Draw: Michigan State. Tom Izzo is going to be have his hands full if he wants to get to the Regionals. Temple is no joke, then he has Pittsburgh and Memphis to look forward too after that. That is if he gets there.

Sleeper: Temple. I was surprised that the transition from John Chaney to Fran Dunphy went so smoothly. It didn’t look that way at first, then Temple came out of nowhere and stole the A-10 from UMass, Saint Joe’s, Dayton, and Rhode Island.

Get Familiar: Pattrick Patterson, Kentucky. OJ Mayo’s old running mate was injured most of the year, but now that he’s back, and more importantly healthy, Kentucky could be poised to make a run. Chances are, he’ll stick around next year, so get used to hearing his name because he’s every bit as talented as his more heralded classmates.

Quick Pick: I’ve been back and forth 100 times between Memphis and Pittsburgh. This is subject to change 100 times over the next day, but right now I’m feeling like Pittsburgh vs. Texas.

West

Overseeded: I refuse to believe that Arizona is in this tournament. I’ve been waiting for two days now for a press release announcing that the committee intended for that spot to go to Arizona State, but they forgot to write in the State part. Even if this moment never comes, I will forever believe that’s what happened on Sunday. So, we’ll go with the runner up…. Cough Duke Cough. Look, even Blue Devil fans are rational, so hear me out before you guys bombard me with hate mail. The reasoning is pretty simple; Duke fell apart at the end of the season. Any other team that went 5-4 over their last nine games and lost in the semi’s of their Confrenence Tourney wouldn’t get a 2 seed under normal circumstances. Don’t believe me? Ask Indiana how their 5-4 finish worked out for them. I guess there are benefits to being a Dukie.

Underseeded: Georgia. How do you win the SEC title and end up seeded 14^th? They should have at least gotten the ten seed instead of Arizona.

Best Draw: UCLA. They got what they deserve.

Worst Draw: Purdue. Baylor is no joke. As much as everyone loved the Boiler Makers this year, they loved Baylor more.  Then if they survive round one, here comes Xavier.

Sleeper: Georgia. The Bulldogs are on an emotional run right now and there’s nothing scarier than that come tournament time. Pair that up with all the athletic talent they have, and the fact that they just don’t get tired, and it sounds like the makings of a Cinderella story.

Get Familiar: Joe Alexander, West Virginia. Alexander had a rather pedestrian season, but it looks like he poised to break out after averaging 24.9 points over the Mountaineers final eight games. If he keeps scoring at that clip, they could give Duke a run for their money in the round of 32.

Quick Pick: UCLA versus Xavier.